I think this will multibag for the following reasons8 Sep 2020 13:30
1. Cinema can never be replicated at home. Cinema has survived TV, VCR, DVD and streaming. The cinema experience just gets better and better.
2. Cinemas are profitable at less than 20% occupancy, unlike say airlines. This means social distancing is possible in cinemas, as these are huge spaces, people don’t move once seated, facing same direction.
3. Ample liquidity till Dec 2021. No need for an equity raise. Mooky (CEO) and family own nearly 30%, so equity raise even more unlikely.
4. Recent Mooky (CEO) interviews are very, very positive on future of cinema and Cineworld.
5. Tenet looks to be very successful in first few days. A ‘movie event’ - getting fantastic reviews. Will kickstart the cinema industry.
6. 65% of Regal cinemas open in US. This figure is increasing every week.
7. US Covid cases and deaths are now dropping fast.
8. Vaccine Phase 3 data is coming from multiple promising vaccines. Many treatments for Covid being developed or approved. Likelihood of second lockdown very remote.
9. US stimulus news due in September. Markets will surge on this.
10. Cine has ‘bounceability. - has bounced to 100p twice since March. Peel Hunt reiterates target of 180p and a ‘hard bounce’.
11. 2021 looks to be the best year ever for cinema !!
12. Plenty slated out of the Marvel studios to keep the tills ringing between now and 2022.
https://www.gamesradar.com/uk/marvel-phase-4-leak-release-dates-new-mcu-movies-lineup/
13. Paramount ruling last in the few weeks now allows for US film studios to buy cinema chains. This law change in US was done after lobbying by US film studios.
14. 8.05% of CINE stock is shorted.... 111m shares need buying back soon. There will be margin calls on loss making shorts. But free shares are scarce .... Jangho is still stake building.
This will inevitably lead to a HUGE short squeeze ...it's a snowball effect. Sp can easily multibag. This short squeeze will happen immediately if there is a takover approach.
15. 10. Rival AMC Entertainment have recovered 80% of their SP. Cineworld? Just 33% and should be at 150p.
16. Polaris Capital increases stake from 6.03030% TO 7.1452% . Polaris is a value focussed investment company with a huge team of professional researchers - why did they increase thsie stake this week ?!
17. There has been a flurry of positive media reports and broker notes. This is likely to increase over coming weeks with Tenet updates and full US cinema reopenings
https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/cineworld-shares-set-for-hard-bounce-says-peel-hunt--7617294.html
As always, my opinions. DYOR etc. GL All
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