Member Info for L3Trader

Clearly IXICO is not delivering.
The suspended contract in October represents 1/6th of the order book ("The client will therefore end its trial while it undertakes additional preclinical studies. Contracted revenues for this trial represented £3.3m of the Company's order book as at 30 September 2021, of which the Company had expected to deliver £0.8m revenues in the financial year to 30 September 2022.)
This is after another contract was suspended.
I do not see any catalyst here, unless a very major cotract (say £5M is won).
In my opinion SP is now going to retrace to sub 40p. Even at that level, PER (sing the FY just finished) is in the high teens. W/ no growth in sight, not clear what the strategy is.
All IMHO. DYOR...
ATB

"and also calls upon the shareholders of Petropavlovsk to support this request by sending their respective instructions to the Board of Directors of Petropavlovsk"

So what shall we do? There is no announcement from POG...

The offloading of another $60M of debt is not good business. Why pay such a high premium?

ATB

Hi Londoner7,
i know you would do understand, but my wording was very poor. Almost, or perhaps, as bad as those ENQ RNSs...
ATB

Hi Londoner7,
In other words, if revenue so far is only e.g. 83.5% or even less than this percentage of the revenue for the year we will see better numbers than expected.
ATB

Hi Londoner7,
Thank your for your reply and further info and thoughts about BREE.
I believe my optimistic projection is not going to be missed by much. This is very good news.

Thinking of your estimate, it might be that revenue for the first 10 months will this year be lower than that c.86% of yearly revenues. There were shutdowns early in the year, so that might have an impact of a few percentage points.

I am very happy BREE delivered. RNS has some useful info, namely in terms of capital spend. So, perhaps they won't go for a large acquisition?
Unfortunately, I cannot attend the presentation unless a meeting at work gets cancelled...
ATB

anyone knows why? issues with production?

Yes, the ETF DB Russia that we have owned for donkeys is also down a lot. All Russian companies or companies operating in Russia are being battered because the Russians are coming... I do not think so. but that is just me.

Hi Krakie,
The strategy was to sell at least part of the holding in Enquest after a few years of owning it and move some of the funds to Harbour (yes, I know it is not all roeses here. I have been a shareholder of PMO/Harbour since the time they were paying dividends...). But now they have a woman in charge here, rather than Gengis Durrant who seemed to want to drill the world w/out having the means to do so...). Less testosterone at the helm might do wonders for some cyclical companies...
ATB

Hi E121,
Could it instead or also be Tolmount coming online soon?
ATB

Hi KRSS,

Thank you for the info. so 25th May + 180 days = end of day of 21st November, unless , "or such later date as agreed by the parties," i.e., that later data Lawrence mentioned. I just would like this to come to an end...
ATB

Hi Londoner7,
Many thanks for sharing your thought. Deepest aplogies for the delay. As you will learn from the relevant bb, I have regigged my oil&gas portfolio and have been focusing on that.
I am always so relaxed about this one company that I actually always miss RNSs, TUs, etc. And, here, because the risk involved is minimal I tend to have a half-full perspective, not a half-empty one as in oil&gas or mining companies...
So I allow myself a bit of optimism here when writing down numbers even if posts can still be half-empty glass like.

Basically, if the energy costs were passed on (and thus the content of my posts thinking the SP reaction might be linked to the market's preception that they had not been, which i thought was but i have now partially dispelled) together with the acquisition, it means revenues have moved ++ higher.
I expect Ireland to have gone into overdrive in terms of Sales in H2.

Ireland 2021, £260M (c. 30% more than in 2019)
Cement 2021, £224M (c. 20% above 2019)
Great Britain 2021 £738M (c. 20% above 2019 lfl)
Acquisition sales (GB) £175M (£75M in H1 and £100M in H2)

£1397M but eliminations will bring it down to £1300M x 11% margin (-:) = £143M.

There is optimism here (mostly about Ireland), but when it comes to cement, aggregates and bricks there is no reason not to be!
ATB
L3

krss, get IRC back next week. how?

Hi Roxbury,
"Stuff happens" as once someone said. And it is a lot easier to produce oil onshore than offshore. And that is why there is always a small probability that a FPSO is out of action for some time. (For example just recently we learned that constrained production troubles at the Hibiscus Petroleum Anasuria FPSO are expected to continue well into next year. )
Hopefully won't happen. But i ten to factor in such things. Did Tullow announce downtimes for maintenance of their FPSOs in 2022 already?
So, I would say that getting TEN's production decline under control is the more immediate goal that needs to be achieved.
I agree with your comments on the bank facility. Also on the forestation. Tullow could even join an undergoing effort in Africa
https://www.greatgreenwall.org/about-great-green-wall

ATB

Hi Slift and Roxbury,
Hedges should actually limit the swings of the SP while deleveraging takes place. Keep the upside (do not buy calls at low strike prices) and protect the downside (buy puts). Otherwise 3-way collars with two calls, one sold and one bought. For me a lot of the progress on deleveraging will depend on TEN's production not declining too fast. That seems to be the major reason to be concerned apart from any FPSO issue that can always occur. But with an increasing level of production in 2022, and if Brent stays above $70 (and the downside is protected via buying more puts...), Tullow should recover.
Roxbury, i agree with your comments about the hedges, but that is what banks do when the people they lend money to behave like gamblers. They get all they have. That was the price to pay to avoid dillution. As Tullow abandons drilling in frontier basins, it will conserve cash. And that will help.
ATB

No posts here since 15 Feb.
I assume bricks is not a very exciting business... But good news will eventually surface.

Boyoback, TA, you wrote "overrides from Tawke - although there are only eight months to run there now." I had missed the 8 months note. So, the repayment GENL gets back could be higher or lower than the amount in arrears?
Thank you.
ATB

Tigar,
Utdelning? Extremely unlikely before 2024 based on 2023 profits and this assuming there are no big misses again.
I have posted over and over since January that unless Magnus can be fixed ENQ is not going anywhere. And today's TU showed that. Had there been just the AK stoppage the SP would have dropped but not by double digits. The missing of the production guidance by year end if you exclude GE, which you should is . They are counting on 45Kboepd and that is with 675Kbbls from Magnus. So remove the GE production and ENQ would have hit c. 43,250boepd. If you compare this with the 46Kboepd lower limit of the guidance, 1MMbbls is missing, i.e., c. $75M of FCF.
ATB
p.s.: Therapist and Londoner7 are on holiday...

Tigar and Squif,
Enq said something slightly different: " The Group anticipates being entitled to 100% of Magnus cash flows through to the end of the first quarter of 2022 as it has settled the BP vendor payment."
"Anticipates" here is key. It does mean for sure... Apparently depens on something. But the wording is poor because it fails to explain what it depends on.
Also, since the sharing of the cash flow with BP is still in place, how can ENQ be entitled to what it claims is for any period of time?... Mind boggling. Sorry Tigar but what I had learned about Magnus does not coincide with your interpretation of how the cash flow is allocated to ENQ and BP when the money was still owed. What you wrote would be on the 2018 Prospectus, but I do not remember seeing such thing in case of early repayment of the loan.
ATB
Chilting: More will follow you.

Hi January,
No I am not, my old self (SIPP funded) is not happy I did not liquidate my holding as well.

But what I want to add is that a conversation among serious posters can take place only once people are willing to discuss facts and what the reality is. This starts by not assuming that all of ENQ's promises to fix things in the deadlines they announce will actually take place. It never happened. So always leave at least one of them out....

Anyway, happy to stay silent and not comment on projections of others that to me come across as outlandish...

ATB

"They must have been led up the garden path as well". And they will lower SP targets. Whoever thinks they won't simply does not want to face reality.
The bottom line is that ENQ is now back to chasing debt repayment deadlines, not properly and technically correct hedged for 2022. $100M every single quarter of 2022... with a head start of $15M already repaid at the moment. Their promise to repay $50M until YE cannot be taken at face value, because stuff happens...
I suggest toanyone who is serious abot ENQ to read all that management said and wrote about Magnus this year... You will learn all you need to understand that they have not been able to handle the issues at Magnus... the latest is "The Group remains focused on optimising existing facilities performance and anticipates resuming dual compressor operations during November." In Enquestrain lingo anticipates is slightly different from its meaning in Thesaurus. Let me suggest that when they have it producing at a rate above 17.5Kboepd they should issue a positive RNS.