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Hi and HNY Slift,
I agree that Kraken is the bigger picture. And, given all that you describe, my estimate for its average NET production in 2022 is no more than 20Kboepd. In fact, I would bet on it being under this threshold.
But Magnus is an indicator of whether ENQ still has the technical expertise to squeeze oil and gas out of late-life fields, after the staff redundacies it made at Heather/Thistle/Dons, etc... That was a very bad decision, by the way...
The GE asset is operated by CNOOC, so it is in good hands. Very clearly there will be CAPEX there this year. One of CNOOC's mandates is to source enough oil for China. The big question is what are the 2P reserves left. By my calculations, it sgould be 15MMbbls at the start of 2022. And those need to be enough to pay $250M+$50M (contingence payment) - FCF (from 21st Oct to 31 Dec 2021, roughly $40M), and generate enough profit to shore up the BSheet.
ATB

Hi Krakie,
You asked "Do you still own Enquest?" Yes, I sold the ENQ shares in the ISA back in November (before the dreadful update), fortunately, but kept the ENQ shares in my SIPP. I had been buying shares for over 4 years not selling a single one until then.
The intention had always been to buy and hold for the long term in both the ISA and SIPP. That no longer applies to my ISA and I am going to review that strategy for the holding in the SIPP, as soon as I get more information about ENQ's plans for the medium term. If its long term plans do not suit me and info disclosure stays as it, I will sell my SIPP holding and move on.
From now on I will only own ENQ in my ISA with a short term horizon in mind. Not day trading, but what I call targeted exit trading. Indeed, I have followed the california based insider dude who bought yesterday (Gurun, your intuition is excellent ... ) and just bought 50,000 for the ISA (a single trade before 11 am), with a SP target to exit in mind. The insider must know something about Magnus that is not public... I am happy to follow his lead this time.

Hi Chilting, glad we agree that the past cannot be erased. Indeed, the BS reflects the cumulative sum of good and bad decisions. But, the BS does not contain all the relevant info. Mansardman would like AB to go. I agree that if the targets that were given in November for YE in terms of production, net debt, and repayment of the RBL loan are missed, holding the working capital constant, then it is time for him to become Chairman, and let someone else to be the CEO. Those targets were already very, very soft.
BananaJoe and Squif have made very useful points in this BB about AB's record as CEO, which tend to be dismissed as they fall outside the view that AB can do no wrong.

Hi and HNY Therapist and Londoner7, I looked at the OGA data as well. GKA/Scotly/Crathes production data still not very good. But Magnus data, if true that one trian was broken while the other was working, would give 16Kboped with both trains back online. Not great, but enough to move the SP back to its level at GE's completion. Londoner7, your observation on gas injection leads me to return to my question: is gas still being injected? Did not ENQ say they had stopped injecting gas in Magnus? This is relevant to TimTimeBomb's question about gas related income and operational expenditure. Gas is going to be materially relevant.

Let us hope ENQ can move on from "Destroy it and ask for more" ("it" refers to capital) once and for all...
ATB

Hi Chilting,

MKS has done very well since last year. I only have a few thousand shares, but I am happy with my holding.
ATB
p.s.: Do continue to post on alternative energy sources. I enjoy reading well informed views.

ABftse, can you provide details at to why the balance sheet is strong and healthy? We must be looking at different companies... There is a loan... cash has been used for acquisitions that failed to deliver the level of sales and EBIDTA that were announced at the time, etc. Please prove me wrong. Thank you.

Of course the BOD are starting to see the writing on the wall... They are now desperate to tell the world payment is coming shortly to try to get the GOI to pay asap. It won't happen. They won't pay in cash the whole thing in Q1...
"34ad - my guess for 5th Feb for receipt of cash is still standing." By 5th February CNE won't have received the whole thing.
Early 2022 says the BOD.... Naive decisions always cost people money.
In fact, had Mr. Market believed the RNS changes the likelihood the money is coming in shortly the SP would have gone up by 10% at the opening... It didn't. Guess why!!!
ATB

Hello Chilting,
You write "my point is that AB didn't get a chance to pay it down because Brent was low when Kraken was in peak production."
This is pure atribution bias. AB was not denied anything by others. CNE hedged plenty of its 2020 production. ENQ could have done the same. Just compare the average selling price of a bbl by the 2 companies in 2020. More, a lot of the Oz loan production was hedged in Q2 and Q3 in 2020 as decided by the Oz capital, and that is why ENQ repaid a lot of that loan in 2020. Had ENQ also hedged its "own" production for 2020 by the end of 2019, AB could have the bonds refinanced at a fixed low rate.

If the idea is for this BB to be the AB's fans BB, then posts should come with such disclaimer ...
ATB

No short position. But, unlike you, I do not see this jumping as much as you do. Let me remind everyone that many people were writing the money would be received sometime in November, then in December... now is January....

Too late to do anything. If CNE has now withdrawn all claims for compensation, then the GOI will simply delay and delay payment.
The actions of CNE's board have consistently been naive with regards to the GOI. They show a CEO, CFO and a Chairman who still believe in Santa.
In fact, CNE's paid adverts in newspapers in India shows how desperate the CNE's board is to "advertise" the agreement it made with the GOI. But, the agreement is one that is not enforeceable because the stick (court ruling) is missing.
Naive actions ...

Chilting,
DEBT and.... poor decisions (on hedging, etc...)

Chilting,
I fully disagree with your atribution bias's based arguments.
1) AB demolished it in great fashion with Alma/Galia. The capital destruction of this project was of the size people have posted here (see Squif's posts based on ENQ's accounts). It was way more than the amount of the three capital raises.
2) Look at CNE. their only two production assets were in partnership with ENQ and PMO. CNE did ok (not great, but ok). But PMO and ENQ did not do well (PMO much worse than ENQ...). Why? You know the answer. DEBT.
ATB

Hi Mansardman,
HNY. If for every time that moniker was written here ENQ's SP added 0.1p, the 60 p party would have taken place 1 year ago.
ATB

Hi Therapist,
HNY. You can just tell them that Ghana do a better job at reporting production... November production has been out for a while...
If indeed this Kraken offload cycle turns out to be 16 days long, that is a good start to 2022. But, but ... Magnus...
ATB

GrumpusLOL,
Let me write it again. the actions of CNE's board have consistently been naive with regards to the GOI. "There may be delays due to the Pandemic." is the excuse you would expect from a government that is going to stall the process at every opportunity. No cash will be coming in in 22_Q1. That is for sure.
A very daft idea by CNE's board to drop the enforcement of the court's ruling. They will end up with some "I owe you" for part of the money involved... That is what Mr. Market is saying given the current SP.

HNY Chilting,
Exactly, lots of other oil&gas companies have already came out with their 2022 guidance before 2022 started. ENQ will only provide 2022 guidance about 35-40 days into 2022... That does not inspire confidence...and to be honest is not what we would expect of a top company.

Wrt Magnus, some people in Aberdeen will know what is going on, and are trading on the basis of what I deem to be material information. Magnus at 15Kbopd + Gas makes ENQ a much more attractive proposition than at below 10Kboepd.
ATB,
L3

ABftse, I am afraid I disagree with you... acquired companies have not delivered. So, prospects not looking good...

Hi Krakie,
Yes, that is the info that Mr Market is acting on. ENQ's non-disclosure of good news is identical to its non-disclosure of bad news...
The reality is that Magnus is very unlikely to ever be the producing asset that ENQ at the time of its CMD in 2019 said it would be. My bet is that hitman1a's view about Magnus's production profile might be quite accurate; "I must admit if Magnus does 15k in a good month, that's fine with me. Even extra 2022 drilling might only keep us at this level."
I am sure Londoner7 will have views on this matter, but as far as we know he is away from the BB.

Hi Hitman1a: you wrote "Do I think the Malaysian court issue is linked to the delay in attaching the new riser...". We know there was an issue with the tendering of the contract for repairs, that mentioned corruption. Unfortunately, companies cannot always detect rogue emplyees before they do the damage. But they pay for such actions.

"but I believe if we roll forward a year and arrange a new $500m bond, our firepower for another large acquisition of say 20k/boped is on the cards. " (HY report states new bonds unlikely to be issued within one year. So, look at 2022H2, if all goes well. with high oil prices the time to buy more assets is gone. Return on capital employed will be higher by adding wells in Kraken and Malaysia.

It will be interesting to see the quity numbers at 2021YE. But we have towait until March.

ATB
L3

hitman1a,
HNY.
"So what if we have issues .. they happen all the time.. " Fully agree. They happen constantly as far as ENQ is concerned.
"Any old/new investor looking for a quick decent return of 20%/25% would do very well here over the next few months." Sure. But the trade-off is risk vs.return... Until Magnus is producing north of 17Kboepd ENQ cannot get to 30p. That is all.
ATB

Hi Krakie,
HNY to you.
I will be happy to post all news about ENQ energy voice publishes. But, I am afraid it is not my fault that in 2021 the overwhelming majority were not good news. It is up to ENQ to disclose good news (such as Magnus back to normal production whenever that happens, etc.)
Just look at:
https://www.energyvoice.com/?s=enquest

HNY SaveMore, I assume your prediction of ENQ's FCF in 2022 is that it will be north of $800M (52 weeks x £12.7M X 1.349 (EX GBP/USD)). In my books the £12.7M is short of 2 weeks of FCF.

Hi Modestus, HNY, as you are a fan of Parames, there was a short feature on him in a recent MoneyWeek issue I picked up at the airport. It referred to an article in Forbes, which I presume was in the Spanish edition of Forbes. Thank you for your posts on the oil industry, which i just looked at. I am positive on oil&gas in 2022, but do not think that ENQ can do as well as some other companies. I think that BTFATH1 is correct: ENQ is not a solid long term investment at present on which to invest a lot of money. The likes of him are the ones who have done very well by trading ENQ regularly and owning up that they do so.

Hi January, HNY, I agree with you. No 60p for ENQ this year. But other oil companies will get to 60p... -:)

Hi Squif, HNY, your posts contain info about past bad decisions by ENQ that should be a reminder to everyone that investing in ENQ carries plenty of risk. Alma/Galia was a poster boy for equity destruction. But hopefully, in the long run Kraken, plus Scolty?Crathes will generate enough profit to mitigate that.

ATB

EnQuest ordered to pay Malaysian contractor £12.7million
UK-listed EnQuest (LON:ENQ) has been ordered to pay 71.6million RM (£12.7million) in a dispute with a Malaysian contractor over offshore works.

SOTB,
"Currently producing 300-500 barrels aday earned £1 million last month for Parkmed." 500 is almost twice as much as 300. But they are both pathetic levels of poduction... Either PMG after all these years gets to produce above 2000boepd or otherwise better to close shop.

£1M in month with production of 500boepd, would mean £1M for 15,000bbls... that means $66/bbl... If 300boped, then that is 9,000bbls...that means $111/boe.... given gas prices it seems it is producing 300 boepd... not 500boepd unfortunately.