Member Info for Kyusho

It is because the bulk of the revenue will be in this financial year, which is normal under partnership models which sells the land immediately and recognise revenue for that upfront.

As they f***d up the build cost the margin will now be much lower, and with most of the revenue in this financial year the bulk of the hit is in this financial year. The balancing years will be revenue recognised on a contract accounting basis as and when the works progress.

The cashflow will be spread across the build period, so makes sense they can still afford the £1bn buyback as the hit to cash is not as immediate as the hit to profit!

I agree there is zero chance of a bid here; the entity is still trading well above tangible net asset value and a bid makes zero sense at all.

Also Browning west LP, vistry biggest shareholder, which used to own 15% of countryside and now 10% of vistry, is hoovering up shares.

Also bare in mind that browning west LP already owns 28,000,000 shares in the company- it is vistry biggest shareholder already so the purchase is not that big given the number involved and it recently sold hundreds of thousands of shares at 1300p. It obviously sees value at this level but I'd be more convinced if greg bought his £9,800,0000 back.

Yes that is a new purchase just announced, unrelated to the other small purchases - actually brought by browning west LP an us investment firm owned and co founded by Usman Nabi who is a NED

Small non executive director purchase - nothing to get excited about.

At current valuation vistry will also be booted out the ftse 100

no one is assuming anything but you- and for you to assume the other 291 sites are unaffected is a rookie mistake and totally naive. it is not so much about the quantity surveyors (these are more like glorified payment clerks in housebuilders anyway, not properly qs's), but the entire process around cvr reconciliation and cost assumptions through life of site. the risk is more sites could be affected and until confirmed otherwise a black cloud will hang above the share price as this is also the markets view, even if not yours. summed up more eloquently here which reiterates my points: https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/vistry-costings-****-up-knocks-1bn-of-company-value

The fact is if he was really confident he'd have used the other c. £9,800,000 from his share sales this year to buy back in big. He did not and £200,000 is nothing and says it all- he regularly pops up with a small buy to that tune. You have to also remember that he still has nearly £9mn shares left and will ofcourse want to try and prop up their value for himself with the odd token buy. The only time Greg's purchases have really hinted his confidence, that even made me buy, was back in 22 when he bought £5mn shares at c 535p- that was a clear signal to purchase as the business also looked fundamentally cheap and the risk reward ratio made it worthwhile.

The fact is the market confidence in the robustness of the financials here have now been severely damaged, and with a conflict of interest at the top too, with Greg as CEO and chairman, there is a lack of impartiality and challenge on the board. The fact is generally one profit warning is the start of a long chain of them, like it was at cres - you don't just miss 135mn of build cost in a well constructed CVR!!! That highlights fundamental problems in the processes at business unit and governance level which for obvious reasons has led to a massive down valuation here in excess of the value of the commercial "oversite" which is tame word for complete lack of commercial cost control - that is the bread and butter of what these quantity surveyors get paid to do and they haven't done it!!

Not really, it means nothing, he bought £5mn worth in Oct 22. 200k is chicken feed to Greg, it's a small purchase for him

I disagree - as already stated 200k is pocket change for greg- that is like me or you buying a few quids worth. It is a token gesture at best from a man who knows market confidence is his company has now been destroyed. It will take years to rebuild market confidence in this company given the magnitude of this misreporting, and that is even if the full independent investigation doesn't reveal further discrepancies in the entities poorly constructed CVR's.

Take a look at crest Nicholson for example- Pete truscott purchases didn't stop the rot there did they!

That is pocket change for greg- look at how much he sold, look at his previous transactions for example 1mn shares sold at c. £10mn in Jan 24! And huge purchases worth millions before that below this level

Who knows- and that unknown is why the market drop here is significant. It it is "only" limited to those 9 sites I would expect some upside. But will their official investigation reveal more cost to complete issues? You only have to take a look at what happened at crest Nicholson when a poor team of quantity surveyors were in place - and that came in the form of five profit warnings in 14 months!

The market has lost confidence in the business - if they have found holes in 9 cvr how many more are there In the business?

I have worked at this business and this news does not suprise me- the quality of "quantity surveyors" that work there is absolutely shockingly poor.

I'm addition- with Greg Fitzgerald as CEO and chairman there is a clear conflict of interest and as such a significant down valuation is warranted.

Well, Greg Fitzgerald is now chairman (NED) and CEO! A clear conflict of interest!

It's Interesting Greg Fitzgerald has been allowed to get away with this- surely he is bound by Insider trading rules and thus should not be allowed to deal in the companies shares during a closed period whilst full year results are yet to be released.

It is a mistake to assess past performance with future performance. Although Taylor Wimpey has enjoyed market leading gains over the past 7 years, it is now approaching maturity and closing in on its 14000 unit cap. This means growth is likely to slow and share price gains will too. This is the reason many, myself included, sold out of TW and invested elsewhere in companies that have stronger growth potential. You can't look at past performance and extrapolate that into the future; you need to analyse and understand the companies business model. Taylor Wimpey is likely to top out at about £2.50 several years out, where as Inland Homes can easily double in the same time frame due to its stonger growth.

Idiots at IC had incorrectly marked this as a sell yesterday, possibly explaining the ludicrous dip. Have now marked up correctly as a buy: "This is early cycle for us," says Urban&Civic (UANC) executive chairman Nigel Hugill in the company's second set of results since it reversed into Aim-traded peer Terrace Hill to become a public company. The property developer has spent the last six months investing much of the £170m raised last year. Its portfolio now includes interests in 25,000 residential plots in areas where disposable incomes and populations are recovering. Investments in the period totalled £105m, including two prime sites in Manchester worth £23.8m, and an agreement with Hopkins Homes to develop 5,000 residential plots in Cambridgeshire. In February the company also bought Catesby Property for £34m. The deal should boost earnings this financial year and adds a stake in 2,600 homes set for development in Nottinghamshire. Excluding the value of associated commercial development land, the price tag equates to about £8,300 per un-serviced plot, which U&C believes leaves scope for significant gains. The strong pipeline may be tempered by politics, however. U&C believes the recent Conservative election win could lead to a drop in its planning application success rate, following a trend that has emerged in the last six months. Analysts at Stifel are forecasting adjusted book value of 280p for the September year-end, compared with 250p last September. Urban&Civic's shares trade at an 11 per cent discount to forecast year-end book value. They've done well in the past year, and our long-standing buy tip (170p, 6 Nov 2009) is now in the money. But the share price discount and Britain's housing shortage should underpin further gains. Buy.

Looking forward to the Interim results here tomorrow..

Interesting RNS today re future sale/ merger of remaining business.

Nice tip on the tef board. With cash to spare and other builders now looking relatively expensive I too am in with a small investment of 5000 shares. Was looking at bellway and redrow which I still believe are two other relatively cheaply valued buikding stocks but they have subsequently surged since the election result which caught me out! This looks good value with some interesting projects and a very impressive board. I look forward to analysing the forthcoming results! Simon Thompson also writes in IC that he will revisit this stock in the next few weeks- I imagine after results. Hopefully this will provide some publicity and a subsequent uplift. He also says he will take a look at tefs results when out.

The business model here is different to our peers in the respect that a key part of our operations focus on progressing brownfield sites through the planning process and then selling these oven ready plots onto other house builders. A larger proportion of our landbank is thus held as oven ready plots and thus we could be seen to be "landbanking" to a greater extend than our peers, which a Labour government would punish. Given our greater exposure here I therefore think, in the current political environment, this is resulting in higher risk here and has resulted in downward pressure on the share price. Until we know the outcome on May 7th/8th I feel we will continue to drift in the 60-65 pence range.