Member Info for Kyusho

The entity no longer has any credibility. It can report any number it likes for it's next set of results, but the market will not and does not trust those numbers. Given the appalling and insufficient controls, coupled with incompetent management and staff in numerous areas, it is only a matter of time before further problems are unearthed.

The only way the violent downward share price freefall can be arrested is to remove Greg Fitzgerald with force from, at minimum, one of the rolls of CEO and Chairman - but who is there to remove him when he holds both posts?! A clear imbalance of power- History tells us the roles of CEO and Chairman should be split for good reason; Greg has been given far too much power and removing Earl, whilst a sensible move, is too little too late. It won't be long before shareholders force Greg out of one role, if not both imo.

You can't compare the growth in book values per share for a host of reasons. Firstly, as you say, dividend policy makes a huge difference; at one end of the scale you have low dividend paying companies like bellway and at the other end you have huge dividend payers like tw and persimmon. Tw for example has paid over £1 per share dividends over just ten years, and had it instead paid nothing (or a small divi) it could have used that £1 cash as capital employed to generate yet further returns, which would have compounded and driven book value much higher than just the £1 per share paid out. Secondly you have the rights issues and additional shares in circulation, but you also have different businesses entirely. For example tw sold it's entire American arm for a discount (distressed sale to pay debt) and also there have been several additional rounds of M&A which often results in intangibles such as in the case of vistry; part of that intangible would be where a premium was paid for shares above book value (linden/countryside etc) which you have stripped out- this isn't comparable because part of that Intangible should be in theory realisable as the land would be held at the lower of cost or net reliable value- in reality it will be worth more unless freshly written down. Further to this you have a whole host more hidden in the book values, such as strat land of which tw has one of the largest and is probably worth alot more than held for. That is why epra net asset value is often used for better comparison. It also depends on how conservatively the businesses have valued their assets (and liabilities!); look at crest for example there is no way that is worth 320p per share yet it has got away with holding net assets on its balance sheet as such, yet some of those builders listed I know for a fact they very prudently value their assets which will then feed through in later years as higher margins, and for those reasons and more you can't directly compare growth in book value as a comparative like you have.

It's not good enough and the market clearly thinks so too. Vistry will continue to be punished for such poor corporate governance through the beating it's share price is taking. It will continue to take an absolute pasting until these matters are dealt with satisfactorily. It is taking shareholders as mugs with these unacceptable actions - Greg needs to go from at least one of the roles of CEO and chairman and if not, then both!

It's Greg that needs to go from either chairman or CEO, there is no way he should be allowed to have both roles particularly with his interests in additional companies such as baker estates and ardent hire, additional conflicts of interest that he cannot be held accountable for because he holds both chairman and CEO roles- it is an absolute disgrace he has been allowed to get away with this.

I would disagree on points about the CFO, he was previously the CFO at countryside partnerships and was the one who was key in identifying the misreporting from the south division when reporting lines were changed from feeding into the divisional chairman to straight to CFO instead.

Margin reporting is predominantly a commercial discipline, ofcourse with financial oversight, but the commercial departments are the ones who predominantly need holding accountable and I would argue the former CFO, now COO Earl Sibley too, in addition to the incompetent regional management of the south division.

Https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/vistrys-greg-fitzgerald-faces-questions-over-conflict-of-interest-j8mblfvrb

Government policies driving the markets in both cases. Bitcoin buoyed by Trump and his cronies (who also received millions in donations from crypto backers) promising deregulation and anticipated wider bitcoin acceptance resulting in mass hysteria and rocketing prices (crazy but inevitable under these clowns).

Builders punished by inflationary labour budget expected to result in higher rates for longer than previously pencilled in, already worked I to swap market and fixed 5 year mortgage rates which have risen. These are things outside our control unfortunately so don't be too hard on yourselves for not selling at 160p+. I still believe these will be substantially higher next spring but there are now stronger headwinds than previously. Having seen nearly all the listed builders from the inside I would say tw is easily one of the best run companies in the sector which is why I like it, even though it trades on higher multiples it does so for a reason. Happy to collect the 7.5% of NAV stress tested dividend through the cycle dividend until the market gives a better valuation. Currently nearing a multiple of 1* book value which is a bargain imo- I'll be adding slowly throughout the months drip feeding more in at these levels. Dividend to be reinvested when paid on Fri too.

Well truth be told no one does, but I have seen how that company operates internally, Including how poor the commercial teams are, which concerned me and left me quite frankly, unsurprised by the news. Furthermore I don't trust a team of accountants to know how to correctly estimate and validate cost to complete and CVR estimates, take from that what you will, but the market no longer trusts vistry and it sits in the dog of the sector bucket just above crest Nicholson. The fact that Greg Fitzgerald is still chairman and CEO is just mind boggling; how can he get away with such a huge conflict of interest? I can't see him being able to keep both roles and some might argue this lack of impartiality runs through the company at its core.

I did say the last one wasn't the end of this, having seen the company from the inside. This is embarrassing for vistry and I still think there is more to come. Greg Fitzgerald needs to go from the dual role of chairman and CEO which is completely unacceptable. Vistry now almost certain to be booted out FTSE 100.

You're talking rubbish, and I don't know what you've been reading (or smoking) - clearly not the trading update. Reservations per active outlet are up, as is is forward order book and cancellation rate is down. That means tw is on an upward trajectory not a downward slope like you incorrectly suggest.

I never said it was- I am simply pointing out that the market does not trust crest Nicholson (ot it's numbers )and rightly so, hence it's punishingly low valuation. It will take a long time to rebuild trust given it's appalling track record and until then it will continue to trade on a low valuation.

Results were as per market guidance in prior revised trading update and did not impact the proposed deal which was actually made after half year results- bellway were looking to acquire crest for its net assets ie land bank less liabilities; they had a look under the bonnet and decided they didn't like what they saw. Prior results are irrelevant - it the value the combined entities would yield moving forward that an offer would have been made on and after looking under the lid bellway simply decided the value was not there, presumably as they think crest liabilities are lower than they need to be hence it's tangible net asset value per share is lower than stated, hence why it trades on a discount. Crest is the dog of the sector and there is alot of work that will need to be done before it is valued in line with peers.

I don't disagree - the market always over reacts in either direction. I am just rationalising the markets reaction - Bellway made an final offer crest were "minded to accept". This was conditional on bellway doing due diligence, which they did then at the 11th hour they pulled the plug. There is nothing more embarrassing than being dumped at the alter like that, and the rumours are bellway were surprised at the lack of cladding provisions in comparison to their own so the market will therefore remain suspicious.

Persimmons historically fat margins were a result of shrewd historical land acquisitions fattening margins- now they have run out of higher margin land their performance has become average - none of that is to do with Martyn Clark who is unproven as a CEO and was only COO for two years at PSN and before that was divisional chairman etc- similar positions to what Peter truscott held at tw. Infsct both had background as a quantity surveyor originally.

Correlation does not imply causation; galliford try issues were alot to do with legacy contracts and wafer thin margins not the housebuilding arm, linden homes ,which was then sold to vistry ( Greg Fitzgerald bought it back when he joined bovis).

On paper it looks cheap, and probably is, but there is a reason for that. After five profit warnings in 18 months the market no longer trusts crest Nicholson or it's numbers. Almost every update they find more holes in the cost to complete estimates for all sites- legacy, remedial and live sites so the market is applying a large discount as it expects further cost over runs. It has been very badly run for years and the new CEO has alot of work to do to get it up to standard. Also the bellway decision to dump crest at the alter has also embarrassed the company and made the market even more wary- it is likely bellway saw something they didn't like in their due diligence imo, and as reported in the media.

It's a trading update not results.

No it won't be - the company has already made clear its distribution policy is via share buy backs not dividends, particularly at current levels.

Don't rise to the bait - his post is below the standard for any kind of response and clearly shows a lack of any kind of understanding (and a low IQ in the words of Donald trump), not only of this share, but the stock market as a whole too!

My target is 192p by next spring, and the fundamentals support this. Current dividend policy of 7.5% of net assets throughout the cycle is supportive of a price of( 0.075*128)/0.05 = 192p at 5% yield. At this level the price to book ratio is still only 192/128= 1.5 times and a forward pe ratio 2025 of c 192/10.5 = 18 times at that 192p level which is not stretched by historical norms.

Good to see us back at the equivalent of 170p, when factoring in the 4.8p ex dividend from last week.

Conventional housebuilders sell the majority of their products to private buyers who take out mortgages, unlike vistry who forward sell the bulk of theirs at fixed prices through their partnership model. This means that conventional housebuilders are more sensitive to economic conditions, and with house prices increasing, and inflation and rates falling they are better positioned to benefit from increased house prices and conventional private demand than vistry, who have locked in alot of theirs at lower values. Hence a bigger rise for the rest of the sector; obviously the bad news surrounding the costing c0ck up here is also holding back the share too.

Adding to this, if they were materially mis-stating margins in prior financial years too then alot of the correction for the associated cost of sales will have to be an immediate hit in this financial period. Factoring in both of these aspects results in the upfront hit to profit you see.