RE: Genuine question13 Dec 2024 12:27
Just take a look at the Zeus broker valuation, that tells you all you need to know. I appreciate many of the weak completely unresearched holders here find comfort in the belief I am completely one sided with my view, but Zues are very clear that basis a 20% remaining share of the Tend consession and a 27% share of the wider Tendrara & Anoul (incl M5 drill) licence area, should those wells come in with this level of licence share there's upside from 2-3p additional all the way to 13p valuation from memory. M5 is a massive drill, quite high risk (although not so much for SOU at this stage as it's not paying a penny for it and there is ZERO M5 risked upside in the current sp), so you have anything from little impact I suspect if M5 does not come in all the way to a huge multibagger rerate. None of this is my view, or opinion, it's there for anyone to read. Changes none of my views about the broader risks and general managment performance etc here, but with a 3P now licence operator I think if there's evidence of them actually being able to speed things up here (on P1 and P2) then that could be very positive and clear the obvious overhanging seller(s) out there - probably still that god awful last funding round seller that GL got bent over for I suspect.
If either SBK1 or M5 come in, and not knowing exactly, but I think they'd end up being monetised differently and therefore over different timescales. SBK1 easier to some how tie into LNG/Pipeline, but M5 is remote from what I can see, perhaps a whole new development / pipeline (would warrant it if in top half of possible recoverable reserves size), or tie into P2 pipeline possible??? A question GL will no doubt get asked on the call next week.
If SOU/Managem can get P1 and P2 over the line and well on the way to delivering cashflow, the credibility/ability/delivery skeptism and overhang to these shares will be removed in my view, then even if M5 comes in the valuation impact on SOU, even if development/cash flows were 2-3yrs ahead, would rapidly discount / factor in much of the value.
A lot of ifs and buts there, but like I said, this is all there for those to work out / see for themselves if they pull they're fingers out.