Member Info for KSH321

Thank you Galactico.

In case anyone else is struggling to access the recording- then follow this:

1. Register
2. Go to the webinar series portal
3. In the search box type name of the webinar: 'Panel discussion: Critical Design'
4. Invest and good luck :-)

From yesterday please?

Trying to navigate the labroots portal which is awful!

You will seriously make a buy or sell decision right now based on suggestions from anonymous posters on a BB?

WTF

https://twitter.com/AntMwah/status/1269688221941800964

Seriously disagree we will see 18p. Heard similar comments being about SIG hitting sub-20 - look where it is now.

This is a hold.

Wonder who's bought all them shares.

It would not at all surprise me to see a private equity bid for this. No ramping, genuinely see this happening.

1.47 one year ago. This could boom like a coiled spring any time.... Glad it is getting the attention it deserves.

Solid buying activity. Hope it rises later today but can see a good week ahead next week.

This is the next one to recover - look at others with a heavier debt position - CINE, AML etc.

GLA.

@paulof2 - sorry mate - I've just lifted your message from the other BB. No plagiarism intended but it's worth highlighting the potential here.

Good research, thank you.

2/2

Cont.

Therefore I have a change in EBITDA of -£52.6m for gross profit, + savings of 3.5m + 126m + 23.25m = pretty much bang on £100m increase in EBITDA. Now if I add this change in EBITDA on to adjusted FY 19 EBITA. We have EBITDA of 128m (LY) + 100m = 228m. Less depreciation and Amortisation which i'll assume are the same as FY19 Adjusted operating profit of = 228m - 30m = £198m. The bulk of n browns finance costs relate to the loan book, this is charged based on US Commercial paper rates. These now constitute absolute peanuts, so a combination of this reducing substantially and n brown already paying off some debt should lead to a reduction in at least half (£14m * 0.5) = 7m. Given that they have drawn more on the RCF I'll reduce this saving to just £5m to be prudent. That gives an adjusted profit before tax of £198m - (14.3-5)= £189m. I dont think you'll find a company that can feasibly achieve an adjusted profit before tax of £189m with a market cap of £60m anywhere in the world. And this can be achieved through the most difficult times in recent history. N brown is built for these times and i'm sure many will be surprised by the full year results in a years time. I have pulled this together very quickly so if anyone spots any errors please do let me know. Realistically, even with my prudent assumptions an adjusted PBT of 189m is incredible. Even if the result is half of this, that puts it at a similar level to FY19 when the share price was 5x as much

OK hands-up this is total copy and paste from the other BB - but worth a read to understand how under valued this really is:

Okay so the below figures are from a combination of the most recent covid trading statement and also last FY Figures. Apologies in advance for the long post. I'm taking a view of this coming year so March 2020- February 2021 and building in the covid impact from what they have mentioned, please feel free to correct me if anything seems wrong. I'll effectively be rolling the trading update through the full year. Okay so revenue first Apparel sales FY19 - £412.3m Home & Gift FY19 - £203.5m FS FY19 -£298.6m So we know that product margin from the financial statements was 52.1% in FY 19. For simplicity i'm going to make the assumption that Apparel margin is 54% and Home & Gift is slightly lower at 48% (i've plucked these from thin air so willing to change). Rolling through the impact of covid - 48% reduction in apparel and 74% increase in Home. On a FY basis Apparel revenue reduction 48% equals £197.9m. Margin at 54% leads to a reduction in gross profit of £107m. Home & Gift - £203.5m Sales, up 74% thats an increase in revenue of £151m. Margin at 48% increase in gross profit of £72m. Lets also assume that while the group said FS is still strong and steady at the moment that some of the lost sales flow through to a reduced loan book over time. So i'll assume a 10% decrease in Fs revenue of £29.8m, gross margin is higher here at 59.2% so therefore a reduction in gross profit of £17.6m So to start off looking at gross profit, assuming the dire clothing sales continue which you could argue is unlikely with lockdown being lifted that leads to a reduction in gross profit of -107 + 72 - 17.6 = £52.6m and i'd say thats being very prudent. Now lets look at the cost base. Warehouse and fulfillment costs are equal to 9.2% of revenue so if we have a reduction in revenue of £77m as per the above calcs one would assume that the costs would drop. I'll assume here that not all of the costs are variable so i'll pluck out of thin air that half of these would reduce in line with revenue. So that would be a reduction of £7m, then i'll take half of that so a £3.5m saving for the full year. Next is the big one - marketing. LY Marketing was £157.8m, as per the trading statement they have said that they have reduced marketing by an absolutely astonishing 80%. Thats a saving of £126m. Next admin and payroll Last years costs were £128m. Once again as per the trading statement 30% of staff are furloughed. So 30% of 128m is 38.4m and lets say the government are paying the 80% and n brown are topping up the 20%. So therefore thats a reduction of £31m for a full year. Furlough lasts until october so in this next FY that will be a saving of 9 months worth so 9/12*31m = 23.25m. Some people may be getting their salary topped up above the limit of £2.5k a month but also there are vacancies on hold, board pay reductions etc so i will stick with a £23.25m savi

Come N Brown do a De La Rue :-)

Massively undervalued here. Take a look at the quality of the Board.

Covid plus the initial fall in price was a black swan event. Expecting a significant re-rate and hoping we will look back in a few months and be glad we bought at this price.

You are supposed to buy low and sell high, not the other way around.

Anyway, good to have them on-board.

GLA.

@HOMER1234

Short position is 2.65% not 8.6%. Plenty of upside here IMO. DYOR and good luck.

... It is highly likely we can say goodbye to single figures.

Well done for the LTH - particularly those who saw through the roller coaster of the last few weeks.

10.99 printed. Could end the day in high teens.

TEN TIMES the current price one year ago - 91

IMO

GLA

... after a fall of a few %. No share ever goes up in a straight line and its up 700% from early April so surely a small fall back before the next RNS is expected? Will never understand some investors...