Member Info for KoR_Wraith

Yes

Those expecting HUR to walk away from a firm deal in the current financial environment are kidding themselves.

Accept it lads, this deal will get the green light regardless of the disquietness of this board.

I'll continue to top up of the SP drops below 7p again.

I'm not overly worried, I bought a little more today.

By my count you'll have received dividends worth almost 27% of your initial investment, or 4.5% annually, which isn't too awful.

At some point this'll head back towards £15, although it may well dip towards £9 before then if things continue to go wrong in the wider market this year. One for patient investors.

Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity - expect major dilution in the next couple of years

Even if they produce and sell 18,000, profit will be tiny compared to their current market cap. Product is excellent but valuation is far too high.

I last looked at this in May when it was trading at 90-100p and decided against investing. The story hasn't changed since then but the SP certainly has.

Ignore the historic chart and promises of future growth. Look at the revenue trend. Current market cap is £72 million and tell me in what decade this company will be able to provide a decent return to shareholders.

Even if prices stay high got the next 12 months it looks like DKL will funnel that money into other investments and then swing back to loss when palm oil eventually drops

I took a punt on this a couple of months back on palm oil prices without doing sufficient due diligence.

Having reviewed the recent update, I've sense checked my investment and sold my small holding at a 20% loss. The company has a poor operational history and I don't trust them to prioritise shareholder return in the event of profits. I worry they will continue to invest in projects of dubious investment returns in good times and go belly up in bad times.

Best of luck for those remaining invested but I've pegged this as being significantly overvalued at £16 million market cap.

". The data obtained will be useful in refining production forecasts for P6 and evaluating potential future field development opportunities."

Translation: rather than give cash back to shareholders we'd like to punt it on extending company longevity

MP Evans increased their dividend 58% this year to give a yield of around 3% - quite a contrast to AEP who are in an even better financial position

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/indonesia-lifts-palm-oil-export-ban-in-relief-to-global-market

Excellent news for AEP

This company is going to need vastly more cash to grow into its valuation.

In my view, it's a straight gamble on the IP being uniquely able to efficiently deliver within this form factor, with a path to multi-year market monopolisation or large cap buy out.

I don't doubt the market size or the high demand, but the chances of a comparable competing product/regular shareholder dilution make this an uphill battle to justify the current market cap.

The company released its recent £5.7 million fund raise in a positive light, but that's an approximate 6% dilution with a 15% discount to the market price. That strikes me as likely to be arbitrage opportunism rather than confidence.

Good company, good product, underwhelming financial strength in the near-mid term.

Indeed, the tool making business was high volume with razor thin margins; not the sort of business for a lowly capitalised entitiy. Good riddance to it if you ask me. Laser business looks much more attractive based on recent filings.

*Tidied up previous post*

Sale complete and cash received.

Any thoughts on the below?:

Market Cap @ 16.15p: $24.8 million
Cash minus Debt: $6.9 million net cash
Market Cap minus net cash: $18.7 million
FY22 H1 Laser Profit: $1.8 million

Proposed Current PE = 5.2 based on FY22 H1 figures

Sale complete and cash received.

Any thoughts on the below?:

Market Cap @ 16.15p: $24.8 million (£19 million)
Debt at 30 September 2021: $14.1 million (net of forgiven PPP)
Cash from sale: $21 million
Cash minus Debt: $6.9 million net cash
FY22 H1 Laser Revenue: $15 million
FY22 H1 Laser Profit: $1.8 million

Market Cap minus net cash: $18.7 million

Proposed Current PE = 5.2 based on FY22 H1 figures

$21 million for the machine tool solution against a market cap of £15 million, that's a good result if it goes through

This deal is just what the company needs - a realisation of cash hungry assets at close to book value, with a potential clearing of debt finally paving the way for growth investment/dividends/buybacks in future. It also looks to fit in with the purchaser's existing interests so quite possibly a win-win.

I continue to like the fundamentals of CGEO but I expect it will take a bit of a hammering should Russia's invasion of Ukraine go ahead, which at this point looks 50:50. The opposite is also true, Russia stepping back would likely increase CGEO's price but in this instance I suspect the downside is bigger than the upside.

I intend to buy back in once the situation crystallises one way or the other.

I think their dominance in the market is actually a negative as historic margins will be difficult to maintain as significant competitors now enter.

Anyone have any idea of the drop from £3 to £2.50?

MANO isn't a tech stock...isn't traded on a crazily high PE...is unlikely to be materially affected by lockdown restrictions...?

Debt increased by $4M (albeit $2M written off under the PPP), makes me think cash flow may be (rightly) redirected to delivering the significantly increased forward orderbook prior to a dividend of any significance.