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Even if prices stay high got the next 12 months it looks like DKL will funnel that money into other investments and then swing back to loss when palm oil eventually drops
I took a punt on this a couple of months back on palm oil prices without doing sufficient due diligence.
Having reviewed the recent update, I've sense checked my investment and sold my small holding at a 20% loss. The company has a poor operational history and I don't trust them to prioritise shareholder return in the event of profits. I worry they will continue to invest in projects of dubious investment returns in good times and go belly up in bad times.
Best of luck for those remaining invested but I've pegged this as being significantly overvalued at £16 million market cap.
". The data obtained will be useful in refining production forecasts for P6 and evaluating potential future field development opportunities."
Translation: rather than give cash back to shareholders we'd like to punt it on extending company longevity
MP Evans increased their dividend 58% this year to give a yield of around 3% - quite a contrast to AEP who are in an even better financial position
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/indonesia-lifts-palm-oil-export-ban-in-relief-to-global-market
Excellent news for AEP
This company is going to need vastly more cash to grow into its valuation.
In my view, it's a straight gamble on the IP being uniquely able to efficiently deliver within this form factor, with a path to multi-year market monopolisation or large cap buy out.
I don't doubt the market size or the high demand, but the chances of a comparable competing product/regular shareholder dilution make this an uphill battle to justify the current market cap.
The company released its recent £5.7 million fund raise in a positive light, but that's an approximate 6% dilution with a 15% discount to the market price. That strikes me as likely to be arbitrage opportunism rather than confidence.
Good company, good product, underwhelming financial strength in the near-mid term.
Indeed, the tool making business was high volume with razor thin margins; not the sort of business for a lowly capitalised entitiy. Good riddance to it if you ask me. Laser business looks much more attractive based on recent filings.
*Tidied up previous post*
Sale complete and cash received.
Any thoughts on the below?:
Market Cap @ 16.15p: $24.8 million
Cash minus Debt: $6.9 million net cash
Market Cap minus net cash: $18.7 million
FY22 H1 Laser Profit: $1.8 million
Proposed Current PE = 5.2 based on FY22 H1 figures
Sale complete and cash received.
Any thoughts on the below?:
Market Cap @ 16.15p: $24.8 million (£19 million)
Debt at 30 September 2021: $14.1 million (net of forgiven PPP)
Cash from sale: $21 million
Cash minus Debt: $6.9 million net cash
FY22 H1 Laser Revenue: $15 million
FY22 H1 Laser Profit: $1.8 million
Market Cap minus net cash: $18.7 million
Proposed Current PE = 5.2 based on FY22 H1 figures
$21 million for the machine tool solution against a market cap of £15 million, that's a good result if it goes through
This deal is just what the company needs - a realisation of cash hungry assets at close to book value, with a potential clearing of debt finally paving the way for growth investment/dividends/buybacks in future. It also looks to fit in with the purchaser's existing interests so quite possibly a win-win.
I continue to like the fundamentals of CGEO but I expect it will take a bit of a hammering should Russia's invasion of Ukraine go ahead, which at this point looks 50:50. The opposite is also true, Russia stepping back would likely increase CGEO's price but in this instance I suspect the downside is bigger than the upside.
I intend to buy back in once the situation crystallises one way or the other.
I think their dominance in the market is actually a negative as historic margins will be difficult to maintain as significant competitors now enter.
Anyone have any idea of the drop from £3 to £2.50?
MANO isn't a tech stock...isn't traded on a crazily high PE...is unlikely to be materially affected by lockdown restrictions...?
Debt increased by $4M (albeit $2M written off under the PPP), makes me think cash flow may be (rightly) redirected to delivering the significantly increased forward orderbook prior to a dividend of any significance.
Apologies - looks like I misread the RNS, rather Goldman's holding has switched from 5.25% in 8.A holdings to 5.18% in 8.B 1 + 8.B 2 holdings!
Looks to be that this year's share repurchase program has been almost entirely swallowed up by Goldman Sach's offloading their 5% stake in the company. Makes me wonder if the share repurchase and Goldman sell-off were planned in tandem...
In any case, with Goldman no longer off-loading the SP has crept higher this week, hopefully some short term upside to follow.
I've bought in here today after also considering Bank of Georgia.
Discount to NAV is significant but I suspect this is somewhat due to the number of unlisted investments that are inheritently more difficult to value.
However, even allowing for an arguably inaccurate NAV, I like their soon to resume dividend policy and price relative to pre-COVID trading.
Nothing too surprising in today's update.
- Revenue and profit decreased due to coronavirus halting deliveries/in-store trading
- Recent trading significantly above last year as demand backlog/increase is met
- Company fully expects to recoup last year's missed revenue, with significant profit upswing this year
- Usual reminders that Brexit/macro-economics add unpredictability to next 12 months
I expect next quarter's trading update will feature blow-out numbers as large post-lockdown delivery volume will provide record breaking figures.
I've read through Clearstar's last few updates and whilst growth is good I'm struggling to see how the company is ever going to generate significant profits given their stubbornly high expenses.
If someone could enlighten me it would be much appreciated!