Member Info for knot

The DCA's are also part of the Barclays vs FOS that is due to be heard on 1 July 2025, 1 day 4.5 hours hearing.

https://casetracker.justice.gov.uk/getDetail.do;jsessionid=476181A35D48735E48578D7968D63107?case_id=CA-2025-000102

That case creates an interesting parallel court timeline for the DCA's if the SC only rules on bribery. Might create 'slight' problems for the FCA with their six week (climbdown / handbrake u-turn).

More discressionary popcorn...munch...munch...

Something may have changed this week, separately to Citadel dropping back 45k to 0.59% from 0.61% on Friday, day trading, possibly reducing near the 360 level. Todays after market auction volumes have dropped to less than 100k, only 19% of the days volumes and 68% of the market clearing in a narrow 1p range between 361-362p, which looks like it may be a bit of resistance going back to 10 Jun, so may be a sticky contract point to get back through.

Meanwhile, hopefully the game of spoof in the Gulf will end without WW3 and a blockade, interestingly staying away from oil and gas export capacity as well (China factor).

Pending popcorn...munch....munch...

And another 2028 maturity bond to look at for the last 3 years. Given that late 2023 price was around 800p.

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs2635182509-close-brothers-group-plc-7-75-23-28?mic=XFRA

Popcorn bond...munch...munch...

Missed the Friday summary and just having a look at the trade data, only the end of day.The intersting bit is that the end of day auction cleared at a 2p premium to the late usual push down with 539k shares going through, more than some earlier days in total. The additional two trades after that with 42k and 82k brought the total after close volume to 665k (0,.44%) £2.4m. That volume was 60% of the days trades showing how some days the open traded (8am-4:30pm) market is not entirely where the volumes are actually trading.

For those that want to look at a chart as to how the bond market views CBG have a look at the 3 year chart for the convertible and look at the relative price level compared to the historical share price back in 2024. The say what you think as to the relative share price movements.

https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs2541917105-close-brothers-group-plc-11-125?mic=XFRA

Bunker busting popcorn...munch...munch...

Maybe a little flavouring this morning. Early morning squeeze with a second wind that has a little bit of volume with it, 80k going through in 9 minutes. Fight time again, back into the range, or not...

Popcorn viewing times...munch...munch...

Covered in 13 Jun 2025 Summary - 13 Jun 2025 17:30 - 0.53% on the 25th April and then reduced to 0.48% on 12th June. No obligation to report since then, so anyones guess as to what lies below the 0.5% reporting threashold.

This link is updated just after the market close and it is the official source (FCA) and it contains the full reporting history.

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xlsx

Short or long popcorn is the question....munch...munch...

Lacking any 'big cheese' activity, I will continue with said song in the wobbly plane. No change on the shorts,

Slow (298k volume) market mainly drifting along with the other banks / indexes until around 3pm when one 5.3k trade was followed by 15k of 1k and lower trades that pulled the price down 4p in the lighter trading conditions. Around 370p someone seemed to use about 35k to hold the level. Then a bit more volume started to tick in around 362p with a quick flurry of 15k or so going through just before the close to settle todays market floor with a 10k market maker buy trade in there, which was the second largest trade of the day. After market auction (37% of volume) clearing higher at 363.4p down 1.8% on the day when the other banks were down 1.2-1.7% so roughly trading inline with everyone else appart from the late pull down. The 10k from the market maker was interesting, bought below the auction.

Summer popcorn, munch...munch...

I do wonder, out of all the pub type conversations around the country, few or many pints later, I have never heard some of the phrases that have been dredged up out of googling to try and add effect to the pure negative and self contradictory opinion. This aeroplane is going to crash, the wings are rubbish, the engines will fail, fuel is poor quality, we will all die, however I bought my ticket 20 years ago and I will ride the aeoplane to prove my point. Crash it will I tell you as I blow my money on song ?

Comments do make for a good community focus in a way and adds character in more ways than one, so, if someone finds the hours to post nonsense on forums, who am I to complain.

Too early for popcorn, but popcorn it must be...munch...munch...

Another day of documenting the small, or not movements. No change on the shorty mc shortface front, or at least the ones with large enough positions to matter, or not.

Trading volume today being a stark contrast with the morning looking like traders had lost CBG from the market as it drifted along in the light index winds. Someone seemed to notice how thin the market was and thought they would have a go at pushing it down with small volumes and then found out there is always someone bigger. Then as the US market opened a little squeezy feel to see where the top was and bouncing off 375p, so holding below 375p for now and above 365p in a narrow range, which no doubt will change. Always interesting to see the after market auction swing from a low 17% yesterday to just over 40% today in volume with 3x less ovrall volume on the day. Auction clearing 3.4p lower at 370.2p compared to the last trade around 373.6p, possibly pointing to the 369-370p level that was 18% of the market yesterday still has some liquidation attraction. Today saw one 10k trade at 373.98p and then everything else sub 4k, scattered around. Could the pending SC ruling be starting to have a different effect on the market for CBG.

More edge of the seat popcorn on the way....munch...munch...

I guess you may be an efficient market theorist as well, where the markets actually price in the basic economics and ignore uncertainty and bubbles. Markets never price any stock 'correctly' if you have any rule book. Uncertainty carries a far bigger discount than you can imaging in terms of market pricing and conversely growth expectations operate in the opposite direction (bubble PE hype). CBG were over 1000p when the FCA went on their liberal warpath, which has created a 600p uncertainty discount, the basics of the company have not changed outside of the legal costs dealing with the discount. By not changed I mean nothing outside of normal economic cycle activity.

On a percentage change, positive and negative, depending on the possible court rulings, good and bad, do you see the current price as being in the middle of that range or implying a market assumption about an already embded discount or premium to the current price ? The short position of 4.7m plus shares is already weighing on the price as well and that creates an imbalance to a stochastic event (court ruling).

The court ruling, wherever it is, will remove uncertainty and in the current banking takeover atmosphere adds a little difference spice into the mix and where you think the balance should be. How much more of a discount would you expect when the bribery shock plus x m short floor was around 180p ? Remember at that low point the shorts still had to buy back, so a game of chicken, not rational economics, fear ruled. 'Bribery' in the CoA ruling would appear to carry an extra circa 200p discount in my belief at current levels. Also remember that the reported shorts had a greater short position after that 180p floor as the price recovered.

Volume today looks surprisingly thin. In 4 hours less volume than 10 minutes yesterday and then a little flurry once through 367p and second thoughts at 365p ? Back to the rest of stuff in life...

Just my view, obviously you all have yours and I have some popcorn too...munch...munch...

Just to add, 22% (166k) of the days traded volume (770k) went through 366-367 and 18% (136k) went through 369-370. Those two 1p ranges accounted for 40% of the volume traded in 2p of ranges from the days 17p spread (365-381 integer rounded buckets to sum the volumes up). In trading context the Citadel 45k for today would only represent 6% of the days volumes for example, so yesterdays market, with comparable volumes, was not really influenced much by Citadel on their own. Just to add some perspective into the scale of activity.

Calculating how much more popcorn....munch...munch...

Another day, another pop. Citadel traded a bit and added 45k to the short yesterday (or via the prior days end of day auction). Looks like they have their position holding 0.5% and trading around it for the moment, day trading to try and make a gain on short term volumes abound the main book position.

Today the first 16 minute drop was with 28k shares to just under 373p before bouncing back up to 380p with another 28k shares over a relatively steady 85 minutes. Then 47k went through while holding around the 380p level in 25 minutes to around 10:07am with the last trade at 380p. During these price levels all the traded volumes below 10k. Not until reaching 373p did volumes start to pick up with a 20k trade and then around 70k in 10 minutes as soon as the level was below 370p and that created the first support level between 11:55am and 1:25pm during which another 112k went thhrough as prices held around 367p. The 67k trade kicked the market up for a bounce before returning back to the 367p support at 3:40pm with 307k going through during the run up and down.

After market auction went through with a higher 161k volume just below the last trade 0.4p lower at 366.6p and then 51k went through at 17:08 with 6 trades at 370.48p.

That looked like the circa 370p level is now seemingly acting as an attracting support rather than a resistance pushback, so we would appear to be on the other side of a contract volume. Who knows if it is going to hold above 365p, will the shorts try to push in the last days before the ruling ? Given the apparent support volume that went through relatively rapidly in chunky volumes it may hold, or not. Read whatever you will into the timing and price levels of the volumes..... something might pop.

Researching popcorn manufacturers....munch...munch...

Interesting day. The first half hour (105k volume) started off with a bit of momentum and then a secondary more steady uptrend (179k volume) for around half an hour on breaching 370p (contract resistance point) before a steeper 20 minute run up to 380p with another 166k of volume. 380p seemed to trigger more cashing in or more defense selling with the notable chunky 95k a bit late and lower at 373p after 55k of trades already went through. The drop from 380p lost most momentum after 245k of volume had gone through by 366p at 10am.... Then the slow sideways 3.5 hour pause with only 69k of volume and a 1p drop. Interestingly the 10p recovery to 375p only took 78k in volume with only 2 trades above 5k, compared to the chunky volumes earlier in the day hitting resistance. Maybe some 370p based contracts were liquidated with the earlier volumes or a short exited (370p book defense). 381p seemingly hit another defense boundary by the looks of it with a 100k trade and a bit more chipping down closer to 385p before the day traders cashed in with the last 15 minutes. End of day auction then closing at 379p, 1.2p below the last trade with a total volume of 1.2m on the day and only 12% of that in the end of day auction.

Looks like someone possibly exited... and feeling like the mood may have changed decidedly against the shorts, meanwhile the pending case ruling get's closer.

Edge of the seat popcorn moment....munch...munch...

"Hope I am wrong but rarely am." - how many prior posts should I quote from ? Or should I just quote your first paragraph where you were not wrong to avoide BAE and miss out on a 600% gain ?

Confused as f... popcorn.. munch...munch....

The interesting though about those two legal summaries is looking at the car market compared to the credit card market and the relative APR's charged between the two. In the car instance, the smaller sized pie is being argued about because someone recieved a slice of the pie, who with retrospective glasses was a supposed surprise because they were not actually working for free. The fact that the larger pie in the other instance is not argued about because the pie is not divided says something is quite broken within the concept as to what people think is fair. You can charge £100 'commission' / interest and I am ok with that figure (signed contract) as long as I assume without reading the paperwork X does not get any of it ? That said, this may be just one of the stepping stones towards a UK dictat on upper return limits on any lending in any market within the UK, which I am quite sure the international finance market will look upon quite favourably when considering the UK as a whole. Not. New book, 101 ways to destroy the economics of a country, chapter 1...

As for the other nonsense cases raised on another forum I covered the issues with those having a separate pre-agreed engagement fee (first agreed commission) and then getting a second secret comission which was the issue. This is completely different, the car buyers neither paid nor agreed any engagement and no secondary commissions existed. Do your own howework, don't rely on anything here, read up, learn, think.

I'm going back to my half secret half popped to be half eaten popcorn...mun...mu...

Well, Squarepoint dropped to 0.46% yesterday, from 0.53% and guessing part of the delay was on the back of some of the volume being picked up on the after market auction, which would delay the reporting by another day, vs 16:30 position. That leaves the reportable above 0.5% balance at 3.1% along with the unreported positions, likely pushing to over 4%. Another short burnt out of the picture after Squarepoint added around 310p, exiting near 360p and day trading inbetween. Not the first time they have shuffled around 0.5%.

Todays after market auction on lower volume and only a smaller premium to the last trades, so the middle east activities have had an inevitable impact, although the 360p gravitation is still holding on CBG, even with the earlier attempt to push down in the first half hour, along with the other headless chickens.

This weekend is looking to be one of those weekends, where years happen and Monday may look a very, very different world to yesterday. That said some things will never change and the only thing that ends up changing is the when and not the if. The real challenge is to know what the when's are and not the if's.

When is the popcorn...munch...munch...

No change on the shorts, again, so maybe just the smaller shorts and other day traders, or not. After market auction again at a prmium, this time a little higher than the last trades by 3.2p and more interestingly above 360p. So, one rollercaster dip to 350p today and still many many days to go before SC day. At 350p someone picked up a chunky 69,301 shares and now sitting on a £8.6k proffit, so 350p may have some volume behind the support. 355p saw a 34k trade as well, while above 360p saw 8x5k trades tapping the market down.

Range bound rollercoaster days ahead or just a kiddy ride you won't spill the popcorn on... munch...munch....

Someone asked me, so I explained it this way. Guy starts a football leasing company, £1 for a days hire (ok.. stop, let's pretent) and he has 10 footballs. First day none of them return, so he starts again, Clause 1. football must be returned within 24 hours. Penalty is full payment for a replacement football. Next day 5 return flat, a competitor started up, leased his footballs and destroyed them and returned them. Clause 2. non wear and tear damage will be treated as non returned footballs. Next day 3 return encased in concrete (see clause 1 and clause 2). Clause 3. Footballs must be returned in their original state. Next day, different cheaper footballs are returned. Clause 4. The leased football is the football that must be returned (issue of not wording the original clause 1 correctly). Next day several are not returned and they openly admit that they wanted a new football but thought £1 premium (see Clause 1) was worth the delivery and hassle of buying one themselves because your buying in bulk and getting them cheaper, Clause 5. The replacement value of a leased football is £12. Next day someone returns with a new football 2 days late wanting to avoid the £2 premium.....

Should I carry on ? The clauses only get created because people will abuse the nature of the trade to distort the competition away from where it was intended by the originator to gain an advantage by the other party. The road to hell is paved with good intentions. If you write a clause that's obviously distorting in your favour it's written, read it and figure out if you really do want to enter into the trade. No written contract, no sustainable market because people are people.. Retrospectively void the contract ? Damage multiple different unrelated markets. Damages growth of the whole market, trust destroyed. Thought it was a relatable way to explain without latin or anyone needing to wear a wig, which mught be a simpler way to counter people complaining about the small print, which afterall is only small becaue it reduces the carbon footprint....

Read the instructions before preparing the popcorn...munch...munch....

"hidden in plain sight thing" - Your honor, I realise that the brick was thrown, however my attention was not drawn to the large window. I can fully see that the brick was visible, in plain sight, however nobody pointed out the window. I even appreciate that it was written down for me before the brick left my hands, however I signed than and did not bother reading it, because the words were small and all that. How am I supposed to understand all those long words, which only ended up in a contractual form because the small minority of people have zero morals and will argue black is blue to avoid having to take part in a fair society.

Meanwhile in the land of reality, we bounced off 350 and above 360 again and onto the fight for the close....

Utter liberal nonsense popcorn...munch...munch...

Apparently the SC gives 10 days notice before the judgement is released, which is I think what they said at the end of the hearing. Maybe wrong and it may be just 7 days notice via the web, so there may be a 3 day different in expectations.

Judging the popcorn...munch...munch...