Member Info for KnockOutthePin

I emailed ii and asked for my sale to be cancelled as they’d given me wrong info - they did so at the end of the day and I now own the shares again.

Hi All, can anyone tell me why AVCT now has a Mkt Cap of £480m vs GDR at £46m? I know AVCt are good at PR and GDR are either not or take a different approach but a delta of 10X just doesn’t make sense? I know AVT has cancer treatments as well but the uptick on their price has all been driven by Covid. Can anyone explain to me?

Exactly. They’ll either have permission to release it or not - will be in the contract. They may however be choosing to release it in parts to achieve their aims wrt share price support.

Had a stab but based on some assumptions someone else might be able to input on. I don't know how much they charge Triller and the basis of their pricing but if it’s (say) £1 per user this represents £significant as Triller signed up 35m Users in the last few days and claims 250m downloads (beginning of Aug). Tik-tok allegedly has 2 billion users. So assuming pessimistically that Triller is lion's share/90% of 7D revenues, and 20% (of 250m downloads) actually use it and they are valued at 3-5x revenues, they are worth today (at £1/user) somewhere north of 3x50mx£1 = £150m for triller contract alone. At 3.1p close, they were worth c.£76m so I reckon still some headroom to c.5p/share. And that's today, without any additional Triller users so will increase. This is my superficial logic - DYOR and comments input be good.

Surely as lots of people taking profits at the end of the day?

IP Group own 16.5% of Oxford Nanopore I believe. They spiked up on the news but 10-15% I noticed. Anyone know who owns the rest?

As well as the $17m, is the $360m not relevant to Mkt Cap? 'Redx is eligible to receive up to a further $360 million from AstraZeneca in development, regulatory and commercial milestone payments throughout the course of the programme should it successfully reach these milestones. Redx is also eligible for tiered royalties of mid-single digit percentages, based on any future net sales.'

Hi All, new to this SYM thread and doing research. Has anyone commented on Vincel taking up 5m warrants at 20p for which the spirit date was last Friday?

Excellent summary Safy - thank you for taking the time. On Mkt Cap, simplistically, if GDR hit 2m/mth Rev rate in Aug-Dec that would compare with NCYT’s projections (in recent earnings) of 72m in first 6mths and 25m in June (and thus 13m/mth. rate) with a valuation of c.183m today. Assuming todays NCYT SP reflects that 7mth run-rate their MC is 1.1x Annual Revenue Rate. You can argue whether MC should be base on EBIT or Revenue and I’ve suggested Rev as these are new revenue streams and they likely don't have critical mass yet wry fixed costs so ignoring those. Based on that and the 2m run-rate would mean a GDR MC of 26m vs 34m today at SP of 72. I’m no Ramper/De-Ramper but I’d argue that NCYT is undervalued based on other industry multiples but that NCYT and GDR are both currently impacted significantly wrt sentiment IMO. Plus, once GDR announce Orders, there is great future potential but then NCYT’s numbers look stellar to me but market seems down on GDR, NCYT atm - though spiking a bit today. So we need a lot more than 2m/mth to hit a lot of the expectations on this BB.

Read the OJEU? This is the published tender as required for all UK P.Sector. This is a Public Sector Framework agreement covering a number of lots so lots more than just ‘Testing’.

It does however indicate that PHE looking to get this all in place and a budget of £5Bn is the max spend so should good to drive the SPs of those with proven tests.

Ours was a UK/EMEA bolt-on to a #3 player US business to become a more Global supplier as many customers were Multinationals - US better at these transactions than UK and many US businesses strong here but not that many the other way around. I’m new to CLCO (triggered by y’days trading) so still researching but also seem to be doing a good job of moving from one-off contracts to recurring annual revs - key to value. Per other post, EBIT is ’nice to have’ of course but growth is the key driver - hence multiple of revs valuation. Focusing on EBIT can also stifle growth so need to get this balance right.

This is bang on. I sold our similar sized SaaS (recurring revenue) Enterprise s/w business to US PE for 3x revenues in 2018 so have some direct experience. The key issues in these businesses are Annual and Monthly Recurring Revenue (ARR and MRR), Order intake, cost control & order to cash. Also keeping customer churn at a low level. Based on this it looks like a good investment but also remember as a small business it is very dependent on key staff/Exec. All IMO and DYOR.

Isn’t every Buy a Sell?

But just slipped to 27.8%/23p

Level 2 says 50% up now

L_Lad - if you’re asking these questions you are likely new to this 'testing’ area which has been playing out across NYCT, AVCT, ODX, HEMO and many more since Feb. teabiscuit kindly gave you a quick GDR summary and his opinion (which I agree with) but I’d advise you DYOR due to the volatile nature of this market (and AIM).

I hopped to NCYT as significantly undervalued at 300p IMO (based on RNS) but didn’t sell my GDR to do so.

Let's be realistic; In a CV19 environment it’s quite understandable that contract signatures might slip and delay cash positive position. Of course, there is also a danger that they slip away completely. However, IMO mgmt done the right thing in trimming costs where possible and giving sensible guidance. I've only been in this share 6mths but it seems that this is being done way better than in the past and the revenue outlook is still positive generally.

Not surprising, as in placement, theshares are not allotted till May 25th.

Apologies Technik if you are familiar with this - some here clearly are not. The placement shares aren’t actually allotted till May 25th and mkt cap atm today @£1.52 is £53m. Once shares issued if perceived mkt cap stays at £53m the price will drop to £1.17. However, assuming the perceived mkt cap is £87.5m (as in when it hit £2.50) once shares allocated then the price will be £1.94