Member Info for Kjn2

Share down a bit when a war broke out isn’t anything unusual. The market is maybe telling you that an offer is more 260-270p and not anything beyond 300.

The company could also pay a 100p special dividend.

Aggr0memnon - I have to correct you: the main shareholders appoint board members at spire and the largest shareholder with 29% is a seller. In other words, if Mediclinic want to sell their board members guess have to align with it.

Laura - do everyone on here a favourite and stop posting. Zero value add and even posting incorrect facts.

Aldebaran - sky reported implied 275p per share and Deutsche Bank wrote the same. Clearly the market isn’t expecting anything near 2.9-3.

Laura - you are wrong again. Latest broker research (Deutsche Bank) states 275p deducted from Sky news.

“ Mediclinic to divest from Spire -

The South African hospital giant, which holds a minority interest of 29.7% in Spire Healthcare, is reportedly looking to divest.”

Asartara - Mediclinic is a seller it was reported I think, so the research note is outdated.

Laura - Sky stated 1.5bn which implies 275 per share. Worth reading Mckinsey valuation book or similar, your maths is way off.

Aggr0memnon - the large holders want to sell, hence the strategic review. From an IRR perspective PE cannot pay 300+p, doesn't work. A strategic buyer with synergies would be great. Clearly, the market is sceptical and the implied odds imo are only 15%. Downside is 180p ish.

Asartara - EV to equity value bridge considers net fin debt only. Leases are separate. Look at IFRS16. Deutsche Bank note will help you. 1.5bn means (after debt but excluding leases) around 275p. Run an LBO (you know what that is), will show you anything above 300p doesn't make sense for PE. Harwood himself stated £3. If I had to guess 270-280p gets PE there unless a strategic bids around 300p.

Laura - you don't know the difference between EV and equity value? Ouch. Read the Deutsche Bank note.

Study IFRS16 and simple valuation, you need it.

Laura - so £3.50 is your random maths? The FT nor Sky ever mentioned it, so you are wrong. Let's learn an EV-equity bridge (that's investment banking basics).

"See my posts early January suggesting why £3-£3.50 was fair WHICH was THEN corroborated in the Sky news article CLEARLY CITING £3.50"

Sky has never mentioned 3.50 ever.

Laura - have you run an LBO or opco debt coverage analysis or are you just chatting on here with no substance why a stock should be worth A or B? I would welcome a high bid, but you have to run analyses and not just drop random numbers that do not make any sense. Harwood himself mentioned £3, and neither Sky nor the FT ever stated £3.75. The market isn't that stupid. I would have expected a better price action after the 2.6, but not much volume so far anyway.

Asartara

No, 1.5bn is EV. Deutsche Bank published a note as well. 1.5bn implies roughly 275p. 340p would be great, but in that case the share price wouldn't be sub-200p.

"P/E is currently awash with cash so your LBO expertise maynot even be needed" No, thats not how PE evaluate deals. They take on leverage, in Spire's case they could do a SLB themselves and pay themselves a divi. You always look at every deal from an IRR perspective. Run the numbers, anything beyond 270-280 makes the IRR not attractive enough for PE imo.

Neither the FT nor Sky ever mentioned £3.75. What is your source? 1.5bn EV implies 275p by the way.

So you say 100p special divi is wrong, but cannot outline a basic SLB analysis with rent coverage and opco net lev? You must be new to this. And no, the opco cannot bear more then that as divi, its simple financial analysis.

Best guess is still a 270-280p deal. IRRs don't work for more than that for PE. I am sure you know how to run a LBO...

You understand that when a large holder states 3GBP that is the ask, not a potential bid.

You have not run a SLB analysis clearly. How much debt can the opco take on? Tell me, speak numbers not random chatting. Show me your maths on the opco debt ceiling, rental coverage, etc.

Kendall: you have not run any numbers or analysis clearly. Harwood himself stated 3GBP in an interview. A SLB needs to be analysed in light of the opco, cannot pay much more than 1GBP considering covenants.

Potential outcomes of the strategic review:

- Sale to strategic, could yield large premium, guess 280p max

- Sale to PE, guess not more than 270p

- Large special divi, do the slb maths, could do 100-110p divi