Member Info for KissnCuddles

Surety

I agree that the next RNS could indeed be a preemptive move on Chevron’s sale to Energean. That would be great!

What did you get from the webinar on Anchois? Still think they’ll proceed with it? I got the impression that they have in fact made progress in its reduced scope development and it’s very much still part of their upstream business strategy.

Jt

Ok fair point. I didn’t think they can use the Shell credit facility to pay for their share.

Another NPV 10 $100m asset added to the mix before the end of the year would be fantastic.

Thinking the same thing Jt. But for CHaR to join forces with Etu once again to preempt the ENoG deal wouldn’t they need to pony up another cash deposit? From where would they get the cash?

I’m be said this before - Bara is NOT Phulbari. Just coz they’ll OPM Bara does not mean they’ll do the same for Phulbari. The article specifically mentions P further down:

The Phulbari coal project, for instance, has been under discussion for years without a clear outcome.

Hardly inspiring now is it!?

“In summary, the market is in a holding pattern, awaiting clear policy direction. Until there is greater certainty, Phulbari remains a speculative, high-risk investment, with its fortunes tied to both government decisions and the ability to secure the massive capital needed to move forward.”

https://www.bitget.com/amp/news/detail/12560605320806

Surely it would be more lucrative for Polo to acquire 30% of the company after the GL rather than have their loan repaid?

Yeah they’ll probably sell the decision as ‘we had no other choice” purely for political reasons.

Perhaps the next steps are for GCM to fully cooperate with an independent expert in evaluating their data? Surely the GL can’t be given before they update the feasibility study. I remember one guy saying that the underground water status has changed since 2006

“ People who are displaced should be properly rehabilitated with improved living conditions, just as is done in other development projects. Using environmental concerns as an excuse to leave the country’s largest energy resource—coal—unused is not acceptable”

He’s obviously referring to Phulbari. Hopefully this sentiment is now mainstream and that the GL won’t be too long now.

At this stage it would be strange if the IMF and Asian Development Bank didn’t insist on strategic reforms to the Bangla energy sector (reduce reliance on imports, exploit domestic resources) before any emergency loan is granted.

This is the most opportune moment whereby we could wake up one morning to a shocking RNS announcing the GL for Phulbari and the solar park and new coal powered energy plants all at once. Bam!

Looks like ACWA muscled us out of Green Hydrogen Morocco. They obviously don't need us for that business. Hopefully there was quid pro quo arrangement whereby ACWA will partner with us soon as their Southern African businesses (Namibia perhaps)

Marland

Interesting take on the ENOG Angolan deal. If AP did indeed bring it to Rigas, perhaps it came with the caveat that ENOG will take another look at Anchois?

On the contingency payments, my take on it is that we only need to pay them if the price of oil exceeds a certain threshold (which it probably did already) In this case we have to 'share the bumper profit' with Chevron i.e. for each barrel of oil sale over $80 (as an example) we need to give Chevron 50%. So let's say we sell a barrel for $90. It means we keep the $80 and then give $5 (50% of $90 minus $80) to Chevron. The RNS states there's a cap on these contingent payments too.

Obscure, Surety

Alles klar! Yes I agree the SP will linger (or drift downwards) while we wait for news. And I agree that we will only get a webinar and more PR on the Angolan deal whenever the SPA is signed. And I also agree that our partnering discussions on Anchois (and maybe even Namibia) are dramatically strengthened given that we will have recurring material inward cashflows starting some time this year. We can fund our own stake in a negotiated farm-in deal either by using the cash from Angola or borrowing off the back of that cash producing asset.

Surety

Why would Angola, Morocco and Namibia all be connected? Surely the Angolan deal, considering the key stakeholders involved, will have its own timeline irrespective of other CHaR businesses?

Marland

Just a quick note to say that the $36m is after expenses. It’s EBITDAX right? The only cash outflow after the $36m will be TAX which could be c. 50% (I don’t honestly know) netting CHAR $18m in annual free cash flow. Not bad.

A lot of upside potential too.

The raise, including the OO, has given CHAR $22.9m. The deposit needed for the Angolan deal is $12m, and they’ll need c.$4m extra for transaction costs which’ll leave them with $6.9m to fund working capital until they sign the deal. That’s enough.

And remember, from deal day +1 they start to receive deposit repayments after servicing the Shell loan which will be refinanced anyway.

They have enough money now.

They estimate $119m ebitda on their 13k bopd, which means $36m for Chariot’s 4k bopd for starters with a lot of upside potential.

As soon as this deal is signed and the cash starts to roll into Char’s coffers the SP ought to rerate.

Jt

I doubt if those transaction costs are refundable. Only the core deposit of $12m.

Who knows what those transaction costs are about? If the deal is as good as stated perhaps they are adhoc in nature.

Feels like we’re gonna wake up one day to a +300% rerate or a share suspension pending TO negotiations.

What I get from the translation is something like ‘if we don’t trust/like/care for the Asian Energy proposal (coz they’re foreign s#%m, responsible for the deaths of our people etc. and therefore a political no-go) then we shouldn’t write off Phulbari outright. Get an independent expert to come in and verify the proposal.

To me it’s clear that he’s in favor of giving the GL but perhaps there are others who are more cautious, mostly for political reasons, and are possibly hiding their true reasoning (and deflecting their political cowardice) by making a fuss over Asian Energy’s feasibility study. So his counter argument is to call in an independent expert to verify Asian Energy’s proposal - with the intention to ‘de-politicize’ the debate.

Surfit

They raised more than what they needed for the deposit. They ran out of money again, so they used the cover of the Angolan deal to raise more money to fund working capital.

But of course, they could have raised $4m for working capital purposes and got a loan for the $12m deposit.