Member Info for Kipper9

Excellant find Simples; nice to see Capita mentioned

"For the British government’s part, it is understood to have approached competitors, including Capita, to make contingency plans to take over its vital public service contracts should Atos fail."

For those who can't view this you can access by this link

https://archive.is/0V14f

Fair enough Okey. But share price down circ 25% from 25 feb.

Please explain EUR794million in extra debt over the year. (946 - 152) Seems like an awful lot to me.

Acquisitions ? Possible, but that's a lot of debt!

Please back up what you say. (said respectfully)

E&oE

Simples, just looking further into SS net financial debt, it was EUR 152m at the satrt of 2023. By end of Dec it had ballooned to EUR946m. 55, 000 employees, up 5,000 on year. I can't find any referance to AI in the report. Differing from AH's narrative. Little wonder the SP has fallen off a cliff recently. More grim news to come from this company i think.

Not trying to turn the board into an Atos/SS one, but if politics is ok, then i think it's more relevant than that tosh.....

Simples, . Yes, servicing debt on EUR946m won't come cheap. 9.4% margin is juicy. If AH can achieve that across the board, then we are getting somewhere.

Maybe, after all this Atos & SS trouble, Gov't will come to realise that the cheapest quote is not the best option. In fact, maybe the day's of companies quoting on very low margin are over. All playing into the hands of a rejuvenated Capita.

@kula, i had a look on the Sopra Steria website at their results for 2023. Only to made some kind of comparison of where Capita could/will hopefully be, after AH has turned things round. Operating margin is quoted at 9.4%. T/O, as mentioned, was EUR5.8bn. From this they managed Free Cash Flow of EUR390m. Debt running at EUR946m.

So, a well run company in the same business line as Capita can turn 5.8bn into FCF of 390m. If Capita revenue is £3bn, then if AH can increase margin to the same level as SS, that is £282m FCF

Please someone correct me as E&oE

Interesting Kula, so they are almost in as big a hole as Atos then? SP has plunged 18% in 14 day's from 221 to 182 today. Mkt cap is EUR3.6bn (after drop) turning over EUR5.8bn. Not sure of their profit figures, but they do pay a divi.

Revenue can be a poor metric for making a judgement, but if 5.8bn gives a cap of 3.6bn, then if CPI can T/O £3bn and only have a cap of £230m something doesn't seem right. Of course the obvious differance is CPI has no profit. But when it does, you could make a good arguement for our market cap to be substantially higher than it is.....

Kula, not seen any predictions myself, but they may be hiding within the privacy of little green boxes....lol

Nice to see us touching 13.84 at just after midday. Have we bottomed?? Last Friday's close was 14.04, so still a way to go to be + on the week.

Although can i just repeat, that i see the SP level as a product of market manipulation, rather than a reflection on the company and it's future.

E&oE

"NHS will probably go to Capita"

Am sure there may be some kudos for Capita, and it won't hurt relationships with future decision makers. Yes, looks like a 'carve up', or 'fire sale' as i would put it.

So long as there is good margin to make it worth Capita's while, then taking on the NHS contract/s can surely only be a good thing. So long as it doesn't take focus from our existing 'plan'. Sure AH is savvy enough not to be distracted....

Https://archive.is/bQQyS

Will UK Government want sensitive departments run by a Czech billionaire?

Simples??

Culley, i think so too. Strongly in fact. Think back, to the JL day's. How glum the whole situation seemed. So, i am sure, as you say, that these levels of SP will be looked upon as a bargain.

AH is the key to my mind. He has now (CFO joining soon, & has already bought shares) got his trusted team in place. He 'talks' totally differantly to his predecessor. He communicates; Cap Mkts presentation as an example. He has a plan, and one that i can understand. He actually mentions 'shareholders', and understands the pain we have suffered these last few years. Really looking forward to H1 on 2 August. But a contract win wouldn't go amis before. Or maybe become popular with Gov't by helping them out of their self inflicted hole.

Any further drop to 13 dead & i'll use the other half of my allotted capital.

Had a little nibble to add to my existing

Got 13.4763 Not as low as i might have targeted, but only used half the money allocated

Good luck all

@Rock, i think you are correct here. Good Serco guidance won't hurt. Same as all this Atos news has had the opposite effect. But, as you say, Capita has Adolfo Hernandez (& his top team) running things now, and am sure over the next 6/12 months we will see a differant company moving forward.

Aim, 13.7 now, up a tad from close. Seems the SP drifts mid to late afternoon, so will wait to (perhaps) top up until then. With a target +/-13.25

Aim, iWeb giving me 13.66

Think i'll leave and see what tomorrow brings......

Fearless,

Re; buying for a trade. Yer, an entry of 13p would give a return of 16% (less costs) if the SP were to rise to just 15p. Quite possible. I guess traders might view that a reasonable punt at 13p..... H1 results due in just 5 weeks now. That might move the SP too. Or a contract win. Yer, a reasonable punt for a trader i recon

Aim, like many here am way under water with way too many shares. But am still tempted to dip another toe in again. Have set my target at roughly 13/13.25p. I think the current maliase in the SP is down to the daily woes attached to Atos. So, an unexpected chance to accumulate, as you say....

But Toad, that was all under the old watch. Even stupid MP's can see that Capita, under it's very well qualified new CEO (& team), are changing all that nonsence. It was crap in the past, yes. We all of us here know the past. We are looking at the future and a future Capita, that bears no resembalance to the past.

Aside from all that, the Gov't have their backs to the wall and are sounding desperate. Capita have some of their answers, but it comes at a fair price.

SP 13.54p now. Tempting anyone??

Gov't have got to consider if they want quality or crap. Quality comes at a price. Cheapest price is not always the best. That's why they have placed themselves in this awful situation. Also why AH will not bid without a good margin.

Not sure i myself see it that way Okey. I think Capita are in a very strong position; stick to the game plan and, as a bonus, Gov Dept's are on the phone crapping themselves. The ball is firmly in Capita's court to my mind. Interesting events. Simples seems to have a good perspective on these.

@Aim, SP dropping off a tad (13.61). Sure you're correct tho, any news soon on contract wins may push us back up to the 15p mark.

Https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/hsbc-cuts-legal--general-stock-rating-to-hold-lowers-target-93CH-3497000

@Aim, looking back at my buys 'at the very bottom' (until a new bottom formed....lol) i'm in @ 12.96 13.09 13.52 & then i got some when the CEO bought circ16p. So, i really have enough. Average c23p. If we all club together, do we qualify for a seat on the board??......lol