Member Info for Kheldar

PUTUP - "At 25k production and $30 per barrel GKP covers cash costs (+/- screwed down as they are) and makes about $1.6m"

EH? Read the RNS the average was 16K bopd for August. they only started shipping 23K bopd from 19th August - prior to that it was 13K bopd. Even with 16K bopd they ended with FCF of $2m. So roughly FCF is $4m per 800K bopd. This means we should have FCF of over $5m in September if average is 23K bopd.

Some selective reading going on here.

ATB to holders.

Next month GKP have FCF of $5.3m based on 23K bopd. If you listened to the presentation you will know they are going to try to increase to the maximum of 44K bopd via trucking. This will give them about $18m FCF per month.

Even if sales stay at 23K then they are still raking in $5.3m and equates to $60m a year.

A couple of months ago we had shutdown with no sight of opening and the price jumped around £1.10 and £1.30.

We are now a profitable company and the Markey thinks we are only worth 95p. Most of the damage has been caused by the Reuters article by one of their experts in Bangalore lol. I recommend you look up that individual on LinkedIn and see what her career pre Reuters.

There is no way about it nervous PIs have been robbed today.

Trucking and being profitable has negated the pipeline shutdown. The main risk is now how Baghdad will react. Can Baghdad stop the trucking? if you think yes then you should sell. In my opinion the international court only found that Turkey should have not allowed the oil to flow through the pipeline without agreement from Baghdad. The contracts are valid and Baghdad will make themselves a pariah within the international business community if they tried to cancel the contracts.

Going forward Baghdad needs to either put forward a more acceptable proposal to the IOCs or buy them. The IOCs have the valid contracts so even worse case scenario I see Baghdad would pay £500m to GKP when you consider they are losing $1bn a month.

As usual DYOR and good luck to all holders.

And yes I have bought more today. Time will tell if this was a genius or stupid move.

Reading some of these comments makes me wonder if we should have a mandatory courses before people invest.

Let's look at this in simple terms: free cash flow increased $2.1m by end of August. Average sale of oil in August was 16300 bopd. We know their monthly costs are $6m so if they ended up with $2.1m then we can work out that they got paid $8.1m for 16300 bopd. This means they are getting paid about $4m a month for about 8000 bopd.

They have told us that they are now selling 23100bopd. This means from next month they should get an additional $3.33m added to free cash flow.

This means from next month they will have free cash flow of $5.4m- which equates to about $60m+. If they increase local sales then we get more.

There is risk here but the company is now making money again - what is there not to like?

@JAdams500 -Seems to me you have selective reading.

They mentioned considering additional sources of liquidity under following condition:

While there appears to be significant local demand for Shaikan Field crude, volumes and prices remain difficult to predict

If sustainable local sales do not materialise and absent other revenue sources, GKP would take further actions to preserve liquidity

If you read the whole RNS you will see sales have increased from about 5k to 23k - so all good mate.

Key highlights:

Production & trucking operations started at PF-1 in July and expanded to include PF-2 in August to support increasing local sales:

1. c.4,900 bopd gross average sales for the period from 19 to 31 July increased to c.16,300 bopd for the period from 1 to 29 August

2. 1-18 August: c.12,100 bopd; 19-29 August: c.23,100 bopd

3. Cash balance of $82.1 million at 30 August 2023 with no debt

Let this sink in:

1. They have increased sales from 4900 bopd in July to 23100 bopd by end of August

2. They had $80m cash end of July - they now have $82.1m. The thing to note here is that the majority of the sales in August were at 12100 bopd. With costs covered around 12000 bopd any sales above is pure profit. They must be coming out with at least another $1.5m so they will have free cash flow about $3m as a minimum each month. If they manage to increase the sales then more profit.

Good news all around as far as I can tell.

Plenty to

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-25/turkey-seeks-iraq-revenue-sharing-deal-to-restart-oil-exports?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner

Turks want KRG to pay the fine - some much for international court decisions lol. The ball is in iraqs court - time to forgive the fine and move on.

This is interesting:

Tawke output is currently averaging around 40,000 bopd, of which one-half is delivered to the Kurdistan Regional Government as its entitlement and the balance is sold to local trading companies

The half sent to KRG must be what’s being sent to SOMO. The fact KRG are not selling and keeping the cash shows cooperation with SOMO which will better for GKP in the long run even if our share is slightly diluted.

Look at it this way even if our share is halved we will still probably make $100m a year not bad for a company with mcap of 200m.

ATB

Sorry, ignore I got sent it and put it here without looking at the date duh

Https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2272041/middle-east

Let’s hope for some positive outcome.

Ops is always a guessing game with Casp. Imho Casp is waiting for money from sale of CE before they can do any of this work.

The sensible approach is to concentrate on 142 and 802 and just park everything else for now.

The main thing here is that all the assets are in play and we are only down here because of questionable/suicidal decisions made by the BOD.

I am probably in a minority with this view but I am hoping we get an update on 802 or 142 before they have agreed to the sale of CE.

This BoDs outlook is too optimistic and disregard any risks. Look at the accounts and how they are mitigating the risks - we have access to credit facility and get paid in advance blah blah blah. If they get the CE money I can see them dishing out dividends and spending the money trying to do multiple things at the same time and ending up with nothing completed.

How about take a step back and concentrate on getting 142 back online and 802 and hold off on everything else until these two are completed? I'm certain if they do this then there is no need for additional funds. Also if they leave the sale of CE after we have received money for the first contract and potentially have ENI signed up for another contract - what will be the value of CE then?

142 gives us cash for Exploration and a successful 802 (even at 1k bopd) will take us into unknown share price territory with 2.2 bn shares.

Come on BoD - feckin wake up to what you've got and deliver.

@legalwolf - that is my thinking as well. Eileen has actual skin in the game so can’t see why she would sign up to this unless she is convinced there is positive news coming.

Also the way this has been setup Lanstead will make a profit but need to sell at least half their shares at or above the 20 day average. We have fallen about 50% since the rns. If they are selling they need to keep the price low here otherwise they may not make much profit.

Come on BOd - time to earn your keep.

On the surface the deal isn't great as Lansdowne make money whether it goes up or down. However, you got to ask yourself why Eileen with a large dose of skin in the game would agree to this. Either she has been duped by the BoD or they believe the price will appreciate in the coming months and this was the only way to get the funding.

I think there must be something going on for Eileen to agree to this so I've taken a position here, good luck to all holders.

As usual dyor and good luck to all holders.

The thinker is absolutely right this BoD have destroyed investor confidence.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that first priority of the company should be looking after the cash cow. Why oh why did they not fix wells 141 and 142 in the last six months? If they had fixed them and we had mixed results on deeps it wouldn’t have mattered.

Look at todays rns and the wording for wells 141 and 142 - it shows they have done no work to bring these back online. Instead they spent the money and reallocated the rigs to block 8 to get Kuat out of some mess.

The assets are still in play. Seems to me they keep posting bad news to get rid of PIs and seem to be doing a good job.

I am not selling as even at 1700 bopd at $35 that’s nearly $2m income a month. Imagine if they had concentrated on shallows and got production to 5k bopd promised what the share price will be.

Looks like September when we hear about 802.

Good luck to all holders as we are going to need it with this stupid BoD.

Can’t blame those who sold but I’m in it till the fat lady sings. This company has so much potential but such a stupid BoD.

I’ll give them their dues if the get 802 flowing in a couple of months but I’m not holding my breath.

we are in the calm before the storm period.

we have news due on 3 fronts - ce cash, 141/142 and 802. any one of these will be a boost to the share price.

someone is loading up at these prices - we have had some hefty sells last few days but no major sell off - hope i have not spoke too soon. mms happy to take 600k but can only buy 150k at 3.649.

the thing to bear in mind is that all the assets are still in play. the last 6 months has been a **** show from the bod. instead of concentrating on getting 141/142 online they spent the money and reallocated the rigs to block 8 for the benefit of kuat and a half ****d attempt to get 802 flowing.

the upside here is huge otherwise none of us would be here.

atb and dyor

“Should the pipeline outage continue, foreign investment will be further reduced, which in turn will put at risk further jobs and the ability for the industry to deliver the 400,000 barrels of oil per day required under the 2023-2025 Federal Budget Law,” said APIKUR in its statement.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/260720231

Mmm … so Erdogan is visiting Iraq next week and articles from news outlet that the opening of the pipeline is on the agenda , the oil companies have put out a statement saying they will be laying people off unless oil starts flowing. Erbil, Turkey and Iraq have been blaming each other for why the oil hasn’t flowed. Won’t be able to blame each other if they are in same press conference without it getting awkward. These guys are greedy not stupid they would not put themselves in this situation unless they have agreed on a path forward.

Bring on next week and good luck to all holders

Porky9 has been successful in spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt. The market it would seem is pricing in a placing irrespective of what it says in the Cenkos report.

What is needed here is a clear and unambiguous RNS from Suzy and the BOD stating the position around placing to put this to bed once and for all.

@porky9 - I have no issue with you talking of placings and you giving your opinions. It’s always good to get other views.

I’m sorry but unless you are Jesus I don’t believe you are spending so much effort here trying to save the masses from a few rampers.

If you are claiming to be Jesus then I apologise

I invested for CLX at 9.5p and I still believe that will be the company maker so happy to wait and see what happens. As this is aim I fully understand I might have to write it off altogether.

@Porky9 - You on the other hand think short to medium term this is not worth investing and talking of placings. The bit I don’t understand is if you think this is not worth investing now then why would this be worth investing at 3.5p after the placing and/or removal of some of the BOD? Other than having extra cash nothing else would change.

If you don’t think it is worth investing then why spend a year commenting on a share you have no interest in?

It seems to me you have an ulterior motive.