Member Info for Kheldar

Last Casp rns: “ Discussions continue regarding both additional commercial charters and / or sale.”

If Clive could have put a positive spin on the sale of the boat he would have but that statement tells me there are no buyers at asking price.

Personally, I’m glad they’ve not been able to sell it as imo the true value of CE will only be realised after the first contract.

If ENi are successful with their drilling I think will make an offer for CE

I’m with Somm, the only short term news is the two wells on Block 8. Let’s hope we get a gusher or two.

Atb

Last 5 days GKP is up 18%

Last 1 month GKP is up 2%

Hold for gold.

The two hedge funds which are currently short have about 2.6m shares. Let’s say they went short at £1.10p. Even if they manage to take the price down to 50p they would make about £1.6m. Now that is a lot of money for us PIs but peanuts for this hedge funds. They are using the shares to suppress the share price so they can keep buying at a cheap price.

At some point they will have loaded up and this share price can then move forward.

GKP are making £3.5m net profit with the pipeline closed. What do you think will happen to the share price when the pipeline is open?

As usual dyor and Atb to true shareholders here

Don’t be an itsaponzi and be more adventurous.

https://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petroleum-shares-look-good-value-for-adventurous-investors/

I like this “ The company is reasonably well-capitalised as a result of the cost-cutting exercise and securing local crude sales. As of 30th August 2023, Gulf Keystone has cash balances of $82m and no debt. Cash was $80m earlier in August.”

No idea when the pipe is going to open but £3.5m net profit a month is not to be sniffed at.

Gkp said in the investor presentation that 42k bopd is the maximum they can sell via trucking. Now that crude is getting delivered by pipe to a refinery this limit will no longer apply.

Https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230924-turkish-added-to-official-languages-in-iraqs-kirkuk/amp/

Arb to all shareholders

@armas - methinks you sold in the low 80s. Bite the bullet and buy back in mate and wait for gold - black gold that is.

lies, lies and lies or otherwise known on this board as itsaponzi, arm-ass and ccc.

first of all the barzani letter is old news and pre dates the rise in the share price. here is the article https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/09/letter-biden-barzani-warns-iraqi-kurdistans-collapse-urges-mediation.

as for laughable suggestion that the us did not respond we’ll surprise surprise - https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/32569-u.s.-calls-on-iraq,-krg-to-settle--budget-dispute-in-way-that-%e2%80%9cbenefits%e2%80%9d-iraqis--as-%e2%80%9cconstitution-requires%e2%80%9d

i don’t know if you’ve noticed but baghdad approved to pay erbil last 3 months salary and setup a process to pay next 3 months whilst they review the budget. https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/iraq/2023/09/17/iraq-federal-government-mulls-request-by-kurdish-region-to-increase-budget-allocation/?outputtype=amp.

"this new deal guarantees that our citizens will receive their salaries in full and on time," mr barzani said.

looks like you boys **** the bed and sold last week and looking to buy back in buy but come on be inventive with your reason why share price will fall.

there has been no wholesale selling by institutional investors in fact blackrock increased their holding by 1.5m. the only people selling here are pis.

unlike these oracles i don’t know whether the share price will rise or fall but what is clear to me is that things on the ground are moving in the right direction so i’m going to hold and let it play out.

atb to all genuine shareholders and as usual dyor

CCC wrote: ‘ Asked whether an agreement with Baghdad is imminent, the 59-year-old Dizayee said “probably no. ’

CCC it seems your copy and paste missed out the full paragraph in the response.

Asked whether an agreement with Baghdad is imminent, the 59-year-old Dizayee said “probably no. But there was an air of optimism. We came back after midnight last night from Baghdad, we seemed to be relatively happy with the meetings, but as they say, the proof is in the pudding.”

Must be a bug in the copy and paste. Good find by the way.

Atb to all genuine shareholders

Invstrat wrote: GKP are betting their continuity on ‘local sales’ …. and the locals know full well that the management do not have the cahunas to go after unpaid bills for these local sales - so roll up, roll up….. and fill yer tankers the brim …. it’s free.

The rns and investor presentation makes clear that GKp and other IoCs are getting paid in advance.

The threat of placing is if the local sales diminish. Why would they with the price of crude someone is filling up at less than half price lol.

Now if Baghdad find a way to cut off trucking then GKp and other IOCs are in trouble.

ATB and DYOR

at this price the dividend yield is 68%.

people say the market is never wrong but for that to be true you have to have the right calibre of investors who won't panic. this maybe a contrary view but i think the majority of shares are being held by private investors and their ****ting the bed has led to the huge drop in the share price. i'm not complaining as i now hold a reasonable amount of shares.

the key thing for me is that there has been no selling by the institutional investors as if there had been then they would have to notify the market. my understanding is that any increase or decrease which goes over or under a % needs to be reported.

prior to the pipeline being closed gkp was trading around the £3 mark which is ridiculous when you consider it was producing 50k bopd. this was mainly down to the fact that although gkp have a legal contract with the kurds, the iraq government believes it should have a say. the friction has kept large iis away from gkp.

what people need to bear in mind is that the court did not say the contracts were illegal but the fact that turkey had no right allowing kurdistan oil to flow through the pipeline without agreement from iraq government. the impasse between turkey and iraq has led to the pipeline closing and the position we find ourselves in. to be clear the uk courts have already rules that the contracts are legal.

now, this isn't great news for gkp at the moment but stop thinking short term and look at the bigger picture.

if and it is a big if iraq and turkey can come to an agreement and iraq and gkp can come to an agreement on the contracts even if it does mean giving a slightly bigger slice to iraq then what do you think will mean to this share price. the previous £3 will be peanuts to what gkp could be worth.

for me the big rewards are well worth the risk. at current price market cap is £200m. iraq will not be want to be seen as a pariah in the financial world so worst case they may buy gkp and pay us £250m to avoid any length legal battles.

as usual on aim put in only what you can lose as in this wild west people actually do lose all of it on a regular basis lol

atb and dyor

Https://www.gerceknews.com/amp/diplomacy/iraq-turkey-oil-flow-on-pause-awaiting-erdogans-october-visit-221468h

I guess we find out in a month.

Atb and dyor

One being up could be put down to PI exuberance but both?

Maybe something is happening behind the scenes. Looks like us PIs as usual will be the last ones to find out.

Swell316 wrote ‘ Without the ITP, this share is in irons.’

Of course it is mate, if GKP increases sales to 40k bopd , it will only have free cash flow of about $7m a month. 😂

Last week the company announces it has increased sales of oil from 5K to 23k meaning that the monthly expenditure was now covered from GKP share of the profits. The do gooders spread their FUD on here last week with the help of the Reuters article (courtesy of a writer from that great city renowned for its knowledge of finnancial matters - Bangalore) causing some PIs to sell. It was all bad news apparently and the market doesn't like it.

Today the market has had a change of heart but according to these do gooders the market is talking nonsense and we should listen to them.

As usual DYOR and ignore the FUD. I.m sure those who sold on Friday will also now join in hoping to get back in at a lower price :-)

@theoryman - I am not saying what KRG has done is right. All I'm saying is that we are getting paid. What I do see though is that GKP have a good relationship with KRG and have shown understanding for the late payment.

It's now time for KRG to reciprocate and help GKP liquidity issues by allowing GKP to keep the revenue from local sales and offset against the $150m.

GKP up 5%, Genel up 5% , DNO up 2.6%

Good start to the week, long may it continue.

@theoryman - I’m not saying GKP were paid on time but as GKP BOD make clear in the presentation they have been paid albeit late.

If we have been paid the we have not been ‘robbed’.

I couldn't agree more Armasmaximilian.

Assuming we don't pay KRG their share and we increase sales to 40k bopd - this will bring in about $36m a month. $6m goes towards our monthly spend and say $5m to Mol that leaves $25m each month with the company. I don't think the market has taken any of this into account.

Even if production stays at 23K bopd - this is still $20m - less $6m monthly spend less $3m for Mol. Even this gives us a cash flow of $10m each month.

As long as we keep trucking we are in a good position.

For me the high reward here is well worth the high risk.

As usual DYOR,

The KRG are not our enemies and they have not stolen the $150m from us. That little thing where Turkey closed the pipe is the reason we have not been paid.

Look at the investor presentation KRG had paid us all money due up to august 2022. It’s unfair to say they have robbed us.

We won’t know for sure until we get the cash balance as at end of September but if it goes up by $10m assuming sales at 23k bopd then irrespective of whether the pipe opens or not the company will be making enough not to not worry about liquidity issues.

This is still high risk high reward scenario but I think short term we are okay as long as they can keep selling locally.

@Putup and Anfil - regarding our discussion on Friday about the revenue numbers. I've read the rules for calculating the GKP share and I agree your numbers do tie in with the profit sharing contract.

My confusion arose from the fact they managed to increase the cash balance to $82.1m from $80m by end of August which obviously is impossible because as the RNS states averages sales was 16K bopd for August and average price of $30. I recommend listening of the retail investor presentation from 34 minutes onwards , you will note that GKP have actually not paid KRG their share off the money as yet and this could explain the increase in the cash balance. It looks like while GKP are selling in the local market they are intending to keep the KRG share as well and offset against the $150m owed.

ATB to all shareholders.