Member Info for kezzd

@Bfdinvestor as far as I'm aware, the cost is going to be between $175-$200mn. What's your source for the claim that '...KMUK will have more than half of the cost of phase 2 sat in cash by the end of this year'?

The earlier viability is at least in question given a changing economic and global financial environment. If KOD wanted to really offset the falls in price, an RNS from both KOD and Hainan that stated that phase 2's viability was unchanged (as was the progress towards it) would do wonders for the SP.

@Bfdinvestor The credit market matters because we are in a different economic environment now, and it may ('may' being the key word) put question marks over the viability of stage 2 and/or progress towards it. Just because it was expected to be self-funded previously does not mean it will be the same situation going ahead.

I'm not asserting the existence of a full-blown credit crunch, what I am however making the case for (in terms of the credit point) is a tighter credit environment than it was previously. That (among the other things mentioned) will feed into the broader risk profile for KOD.

@Bfdinvestor It's 'expected' to be self funding, but we are in a new environment now - yields are higher, as are credit spreads; that is indicative of a more risky funding environment.

Bernard may genuinely believe that relationships are working well, but that does not belay the fact that KOD has now had to go to arbitration. Does going to arbitration mean that KOD is in the midst of a bust up with it's partners? No. Do firms that always go to arbitration never reconcile their relationship? No. But pretending that risks are not evolving and we are not in a different environment just seems silly.

Is anything I'm saying here objectively false?

@Bfdinvestor they've got to fund stage 2, and there's likely a changing funding environment; not just on a macro-level given the war, but also on the firm level due to the arbitration and the issues surrounding it.

@Bfdinvestor I would attribute it to a combination of malaise in the market brought about by the war (and intensification of said war), as well as the issues relating to arbitration, plus the 'backburner issues' such funding questions for stage 2 production, and potential issues with the Malian government (it is after all run by a military Junta).

@Nowthewiser this war will effect global growth, inflation, interest rates (and by extension credit spreads), commodity prices etc. It'll effect global shipping prices (and its utilisation), as well as shifting the risk calculus for investors and market participants.

All those factors will play a role in KOD's SP. Despite what some people might say, it's not the machinations of market makers.

@0777brad you are aware that there is a war on in the middle east, right? KOD's SP is likely being knocked around by the intensity of that war plus the developments of arbitration.

You may recognise revenue when the when invoices are sent, but in the situation KOD is in, cash flow is just (if not more) important.

Bfd why do you insist on accusing others of lying/dishonesty all the time? You did the same with me, now you're doing it to Badomen...

What's that announcement for exactly?

What's the basis for this '1p at least' assertion?

Also I was previously in the KOD Google group that existed a few years ago, what happened to that?

JoeBloggs, I admittedly didn't know I was a 'new poster'.

Bfd, I don't think you have really have read what I said, because what you've just said takes no account of what I said.

As I said in the previous message: "...there are risks/challenges posed to KOD that derive from where it operates, the stage in its production cycle, and how it funds its operation(s). And in my view, until those risks are mitigated (primarily by stronger financials), KOD's SP is going to be less reactive to global supply developments." Is there something controversial in that statement?

You keep talking about other companies, but are they in similar situation to KOD? Are they operating in the same area, at the same (or a similar) stage in their respective production cycles, and/or funding their operations in a similar fashion?

Finally, I haven't offered an opinion on KOD's fair value (nor have I decomposed the various premia), so I don't know why you're talking in that space.

Bfd, did you read what I wrote just then?

Bfd, I haven't lied about what you said in any way. I simply told you that your response does not reflect what I said earlier in this thread. You also seem to be making a whole set assumptions about what I'm arguing, which is just not a legitimate way of conducting a rational discussion. Did I say, suggest, or imply that small miners can't operate successfully in Africa? No. Did I say, suggest, or imply that I believed that most junior exploration companies did make it to production? No. So why do you approach this interaction as if that was the argument I was making?

My position is a very simple one; there are risks/challenges posed to KOD that derive from where it operates, the stage in its production cycle, and how it funds its operation(s). And in my view, until those risks are mitigated (primarily by stronger financials), KOD's SP is going to be less reactive to global supply developments.

The fact that I give voice to this view is not an assertion that these challenges are unique to KOD, nor is it an assertion that KOD is a uniquely risky investment. So why do you approach conversing with me as if that was my argument?

Bfd, I did not say that "...market cap is equitable for the risk", you are reading your own interpretation in. Deal with what I have said explicitly, don't add your own spin to it.

KOD is a small company at an early stage of production, that is only going to attract a certain kind of investor. KOD is also not currently a profit-making enterprise, again that is also only going to attract a certain kind of investor.

KOD's share price tends to move with the news, and until KOD starts proving itself as a producer (with the financials to support it), I think it is folly to assume that events in the market generally will shift KOD's SP to any meaningful degree.

Bfd, why are you asking me about ALL?

I am aware that many firms never make it to production, the fact that KOD has now made it to production doesn't mean that all risks have evaporated. Tell me, do you think that KOD is a riskless investment?

Now, if KOD was a profit-making enterprise then we would see a meaningful impact on the SP, but until that point we won't.

Why are you expecting material changes in SP on this kind of news for KOD? After all, the company is small-cap at the early stage of production. There are still big risks present.

Would it be possible to come on this chat one day and not see people slinging insults at one another?