The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
GDP growth from a low base. Ireland is growing 3 x the UK
Am assuming today’s fall in sp is influenced by Germania Airlibes going bust? They were largely a bucket and spade brigade carrier
Am I missing a trick? If the Virgin/Stobart offer is 1p a share with a £100 m cash injection, but it’s the shareholders who vote, why doesn’t someone else come in with an offer say of 9p a share and £20m for the outstanding aircraft lease obligations and break up the airline selling off the bits?
Attractively priced for the forthcoming post Brexit recession. People use buses more in hard times. They have to sell the second or only car. Rail is more tied to GDP growth so falls in recessions but Stagecoach have never overpaid for franchises so will weather a storm. Ditching the yank business at last is great news too. A better recession share than say Greggs which is fully priced imho
Apologies read BFS for BHS! Freudian slip
I spot the ultimate gloom scenario. Bombardier announced redundancies today at their factory at BHD. Brexit will destroy the rest of NI industry so flybe will be forced to cut routes from BHD where they are the biggest player and the airport closes giving a small boost to EZY from BHS. But then as a former flybe shareholder i’m a glass half empty kind of guy.
If flybe was a strategic fit for IAG why did they divest their 10% holding and why are Cityflyer outsourcing DUB/LCY to a Stobart E190 from Jan? If it’s going to cost £50m to buy plus £50m for the cash reserves, that’s a heck of a bill to reverse your strategy. Best to let flybe fail then pick off some routes maybe at BHD and LCY?
Under Mr Hamad the policy of leasing planes was reversed in favor of ownership which gives rise to depreciation charges on an historic outlay as opposed to leasing which is actual cash out the door each month. The current market value of the company equals the value of just two planes yet a cursory glance at plane spotters.com indicates a number of both the E175s and Q400s are owned. This company is an asset strippers dream imho.
The ultimate statement of the hubris and folly that is Brexit
Shorters are parasites who carry out no useful business function and cause small investors to lose out imho
Why waste more money on administrators fees and prolong the uncertainly for sub contractors. The Govt could nationalise by paying £65m for the share capital and pump £300m in to enable it to continue as a going concern IMHO
Held this for many years but got out at >£2. Feel for guys who kept the faith. Somebody bought 1.3m shares at 1652hrs yesterday for£200K. What were they thinking? This shows how tricky things are for the small invester particularly those reliant on dividends. Clln paid out 12.5p a share as recently as last May. How could things go so wrong so quickly. I rate Keith Cochrane having worked for him at Stagecoach, and if he couldn't find a way through, nobody could.
Ok I've had to sell out and bank a 25% loss as I need funds for non share related activity. Good luck to all who are keeping the faith with this company.
Just a word to those who think the undervaluation of the sp could lead to a takeover. Takeovers use up a huge amount of management time in due diligence and if they go through you have the bugbear of staff on different terms and conditions and from different management cultures. Remember the nightmare of Morrisons and Safeway. Ryanair tried it with Buzz and never again. They bid for bits of Alitalia but not the whole as have Luft and EZY with Air Berlin. Mixed fleets post merger are another problem. Competitors would prefer to let us go under then pick off the routes, fleet and staff that suit them.
The problem with this share is that we've had lots of promises and little track record of delivery, so many of us are reluctant shareholders. As soon as the price edges up many of us - myself included - offload some shares and the price falls again. Can't see how a sustained upwards price run is going to happen.
Agreed that £8.4m is at the upper end of forecast so if the market has priced in worse we should see a rise today. For the future, interesting news from Embraer that they are considering developing a new turboprop. Possible candidate for future flybe fleet.
IMHO Anglesey to Cardiff only exists as a route to take a handful of politicians and businessmen to and fro in a day, whereas by rail they would have to go via Chester. Traditionally it's been operated by a 19 seater aircraft so whatever flybe are going to use will be too big!
I thought we were supposed to be getting a handle on costs? Is our future to be determined by new routes like Durham to Aberdeen - adequately served by direct rail btw? Surely there should be no route experimentation but a focus on fleet reduction and serving existing profitable routes prior to selling out. With good results from IAG, RYA and Lufthansa its clear to me only the big boys can make real money in the airline game imho.
Tostal, I respect the views of industry insiders like yourself, but there has to be a good reason the ATR72 outsells the Q400 by a factor of 2 to 1. That alone allows leasing companies to take a bigger residual value risk on the asset and therefore offer lower rates on the ATR because the second hand market or secondary lease period demand is stronger The speed advantage of the Q400 is not much benefit on short sectors. I still think turboprops are resisted by business customers and at a time of cheap fuel, a regional jet offers many advantages IMHO.