Member Info for KelhamKing

One interesting point not picked up below.....

The Tory manifesto specifically promises a North Sea O&G deal within the lifetime of the next parliament (Page 46):

"Oil and gas sector deal: The oil and gas industry employs almost 300,000 people, of whom four in 10 work in Scotland. We believe that the North Sea oil and gas industry has a long future ahead and know the sector has a key role to play as
we move to a Net Zero economy. We will support this transition in the next Parliament with a transformational sector deal."

I await the detail but imagine it would combine supporting O&G workers to transition to other industries whilst potentially offsetting decommissioning costs.....

Intrigued, hence thoughts welcomed.

I also heartily apologise for my over-use of the word 'clearly', clearly.

Some further information on JKX's new Board members; whilst I agree the company handled the sacking of previous Directors very poorly - and showed up the need for it to dramatically improve its IR programme - I believe its new appointments are reasonable when you consider the following.

Charles Valceschini

https://www.aipn.org/forms/meeting/Microsite/15February2019CISFSU,1
http://chamber.ua/en/Media/News/10834

Clearly highly experienced given nearly 4 decades of relevant work history; I'm encouraged by his understanding/involvement in past/future bidding rounds.

Tony Alves

http://strategy-council.com/en/speakers/13

This is the appointment I'm most pleased about; if there's an area where JKX has historically been weak, it's been 'investor relations, corporate governance and Company Secretarial matters'. Hopefully his influence will be felt early.

Rashid Javanshir

https://www.thebusinessyear.com/azerbaijan-2012/dream-to-drill/interview

Clearly an old interview and I'm aware that his most recent work was in relation to Strategy at BP; whilst heading up its Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey operations previously however, he led "one of BP’s largest businesses with up to million barrels per day of oil equivalent production and exports from super-giant ACG oil and Shah Denis gas fields." Again, I'm heartened by the strong international experience.

Clearly the BoD need to be given some time to make its influence felt but it has already made a positive step in making Viktor Gladun permanent CEO. An obvious next step would be a few Director buys to affirm their personal commitment and this frankly ridiculous price.

This has been further exacerbated by natural gas prices in Ukraine now tracking back Northwards, albeit nowhere near its Dec 2018 highs, as per https://www.ueex.com.ua/eng/ - note the Bid Results for November 2019.

Whilst others on this board have made their opinions (relatively) plain, I remain bullish for its prospects. DYOR et. al.

Management close to selling two centres according to this report over W/E, in line with post-interims strategy:

https://www.auraree.com/retail-shopping-centers/intu-properties-in-talks-to-sell-two-shopping-centres-to-ece-and-generali/

Tuck these into your bottom drawer existing holders, as I believe the SP will recover on three elements:

1) Recognition of arbitration awards;
2) Solid BoD appointments (of which we await further detail); and
3) A rise in pricing, matched with the need for greater Ukrainian gas independence.

Some interesting articles to note - the first on the need to boost energy independency:

https://www.kyivpost.com/business/to-boost-security-ukraine-must-plug-its-energy-holes.html

The second, tied to geopolitical fallout, is increasing gas storage - yet the tanks are only half full:

https://tass.com/economy/1070852

The final one shows the importance of Ukraine in the supply of gas elsewhere - which could (no guarantee) be of benefit to the likes of JKX.

http://interfaxenergy.com/article/34458/moldova-turns-to-ukraine-to-avert-gas-supply-crisis

I remain very confident in this business and is absurd value at 35p!

For further information on Pinchuk's interests c/o BVI, have a look at:

https://pep.org.ua/en/person/34443

... as well as this hugely complicated organisational chart which references 'Tomkins Trading' as referenced in the RNS:

https://pep.org.ua/media/documents/shareholders-ZHYSA_PLUS-20.04.2018-UA.pdf

Mr Pinchuk is still very much wedded here!

I personally enjoy Krok's musings; he raises some valid points and I agree with him on TP.

A couple of morsels in the meantime. Good to see progress at SV with tenders now in for Well 54; the cheapest tender is at £7.8m. A good use of Regal's cash pile I'm sure you'll agree and I look forward to an update within their Annual Report!

https://expro.com.ua/en/tidings/energofinance-quotes-the-lowest-borehole-bid-proposal-for-regal-petroleum

Also good to see RPT making Deloitte's Top 20 upstream list:

https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/uk-upstream-independents.html

Happy reading!

More white noise on this board sadly. An American think tank of dubious position (fancy that) puts out anti-Russian piece. That ought to be the headline.

As others say, it is absolutely immaterial to RPTs operations.

No doubt that Hopkinson/Glazunov will attend....the associated 32 page research piece is also well worth reading to gauge just how enormous the gas market in Ukraine is.

http://strategy-council.com/en/events/the-ukrainian-gas-ep-forum

Afternoon all,

What I've really liked over the past couple of weeks is that in response to all of the Kerch strait/Martial law noise, RPT calmly banged out an RNS to say that they've increased gas production by at least a tenth with their recent VAS workover. This was near-genius - a double whammy of our operations are not affected mixed with material upside. Well done BOD.

In my view, the question now is on speed of growth and subsequent movement of SP, as it is still remarkably cheap at these levels given cash position, level of known reserves across all three fields and denationalisation of present state gas assets. Regal will keep growing if it continues to focus on maximising the assets it has but there are two further considerations as we head into 2019:

1) A number of state-backed assets close to RPT's present operations will be offered for sale shortly, with press reporting over the past couple of days that "Ukraine began, in earnest, the long-awaited process of opening up the country’s natural gas production, by beginning the auctioning process for exploration and extraction rights at 30 onshore reserve sites." Further key details can be found via this very helpful summary:

https://emerging-europe.com/business/ukraine-to-auction-concessions-for-30-onshore-petroleum-blocks/

Now, with messrs Novinsky and Pinchuk having excellent relationships with the Ukrainian Government, I would expect RPT to be well-positioned to use its cash pile to buy some of these assets. Huge opportunity for RPT if the Ukrainian Government acts quickly.

2) The other interesting issue is that whilst some have speculated about a Pinchuk takeover, very little has been made about Dmitry Sazonenko's appointment to the BOD back in September. Highly experienced and involved in Repsol's JV with Gazpromneft, I find it highly unlikely that Repsol aren't the only major closely monitoring Regal. See:

https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/Dmitry-Sazonenko-0K16TS-E/biography/

Business fundamentals, delivery and outlook are all tremendous. Existing holders ought to ignore the noise from Brexit/Putin etc and await what should be a rather tasty January update!

Best of luck to all holders and DYOR as always etc.

Thanks Simon - slapped wrist for me on SV-12, as a quick check shows RNS from July. Brain fade (apologies all).

Harking back to Regal’s FY statement, we have two meaty milestones for Q4:

- Conclusion of workover operations for SV-12 (and what this means for future production); and
- Recalculation of VAS reserves - further upgrade following previous blockbuster announcement at MEX-GOL/SV?

I’m intrigued as to whether they announce pre-Christmas or hold off to make a Trading Statement pre FY results in January. I look forward to the results - GLAH!

Evening all,

Within the last week the Ukrainian PM has announced that he wants the country to become self-sufficient in gas production, with a nominal target of 20 billion cubic metres/annum required to achieve ‘energy indpendence’. (See https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/glava-uryadu-pro-rozvitok-gazovoyi-galuzi-meta-20-mlrd-kubiv-vlasnogo-vidobutku-i-povna-energonezalezhnist)

This is excellent news for RPT, as clearly some of this increased output needs to come from non-state sources. Reading back to RPTs interims, they produced on average 360k cubic metres of gas from MEX-GOL, SV and VAS; annualise this number (which of course is likely to be higher at FY) and you get to 131.4m cubic metres of output per year - less than half a percent of future domestic requirements.

RPT is therefore of strategic importance to the state, with a further tax break to come on 1st Jan 2019. Add in a gradual rise to domestic gas pricing, partly to satisfy the IMF to release funding to the Ukranian Government, and the continued strong operational performance of the business and you have a very strong investment case.

All of the shenanigans on crude oil this week has brought this down purely, in my view, because of the company’s name! I remain a very happy holder and will do for a while yet.

Excellent set of results - delighted with company's cash position and investment plan.

The appointment of Dmitry Sazonenko is very interesting. He's presently Chief Geologist at Eurotek, who are 3/4 owned by Repsol and the remainder by Gazprom:

https://www.repsol.com/en/press-room/press-releases/2017/07/07/repsol-and-gazprom-neft-sign-agreement-siberia.cshtml

Clearly highly experienced and looks a very canny appointment. You cannot help but be confident of the business' near-term prospects when its capabilities, financial position and present market conditions are all considered together.