Member Info for Kayel

Like you sauerkraut I am disappointed with current sp ( I hold at 24p average).

But surely at $60 oil price most oil companies will do very well. Harbour stated that will generate net cash at $30-35 oil price. So with production at 200k/day that’s $2 billion/year. I’m not an expert so not sure what that means as far as net income/profit is concerned.

Harbour have hedged a lot at $60 and a few on this site have mentioned it as a mistake. They may be right if oil continues to rise but I’m sure they will be tight lipped if the price starts to fall back.

Harbour is now valued at about 3.6 billion. With potential of 2 billion net cash (assuming $60 dollar oil price) together with 3 billion tax advantages gained from pmo then things look very promising to me.

It is strange at the moment with this new merged company and all the creditor shares, etc, and like most on this site I don’t really know when it will settle down with the sp starting to act normally, but settle down it will.

Yes, if oil falls back significantly we will all be hammered. But if the oil stays at $60+ then you are correct, eventually this share will only be going in one direction. IMHO.

I trade my isa using Halifax. All looks fine, shares shown as HBR.

I agree. A little disappointed with reaction on the sp. Back in nov/dec when news of vaccines came through it jumped to 270 before falling back. Here we are with actual vaccinations well on the go and we are struggling to get past 240. Perhaps when foreign holidays/flights start to kick off again we will see positive movement.

I agree, perhaps 300 to 350 by the end of summer, assuming all goes well with world vaccination and cases/deaths continue to fall. We have to remember that Menzies operate in many countries with a lot of them having a lot of catch up to uk regarding vaccinations. So it might take a little while longer for Menzies to get out of blocks fully. I’m in long term after buying in three tranches (123, 168 and 218) and very hopeful we can reach the 450-550 mark by summer of 2022.

Different topic.... have noticed very large UT trades after closing bell over the last few days causing the SP to fall considerably each time. We seem to gather pace up to 250 mark before falling back late afternoon.... any thoughts??

Apologies, saw the news and tied it alongside airport contacts in with the mnzs jump. Stand by positivity on mnzs.

I agree. They have managed well enough through these COVID times. No rights issues or extra loans to get through it. Now they announced new contracts at 8 airports in Pakistan and just today 3 airports for the South African LIFT airline as well as purchasing the Libby distribution. That doesn’t sound like a company in trouble . It might take 12-18 months but I’ll be keeping my shares (140 average) until 500p is past and gone.

As far as the vote is concerned, what clout do the big holders have (Hargreaves, etc) . Surely if this is a bad deal as far as pmo shareholders are concerned then they would vote against. Don’t they have to give an estimate of the value to shareholders ( e.g .. will our investments be worth 10% 25% 50% 150% after the merge?...) before they can make meaningful decision?.

Hi Bloobird, think the initial estimates were 20-25k per day with gross reserves of 40mmboe.

Thanks Plebleens, very informative as ever. I have my debt reduction a little higher as I've assumed that the company guidance is a bit conservative (perhaps based on average oil prices during Q1/Q2). If current oil price persists then perhaps that is an extra 100mill or so in the coffers than expected and therefore hopefully a bit more off the debt pile (perhaps down to 2.1 billion EOY). One thing is for sure, at these oil prices PMO is heading in the right direction IMHO.

I agree Jelenko. With current brent prices and PMO stating 40% of profit will pay off debt then I'm expecting a reduction in debt of about 180-230 million, same for Q4 with same conditions. Hopefully there will be more cash in the bank along with it too.