Member Info for Kayel

And with the recent huge UT trades we might get a similar RNS next week. Wonder who’s buying the offloaded shares.? EIG maybe?

Reported on 11th and 21st, thresholds first crossed on 10th and 17th.

Don’t worry I won’t get mugged off (whatever it means). Lol.

Oops … 59p should have been $59. Been a long day.

Same company as 11th March. GIC have offloaded another 12 million shares (over 5 million on the 11th).

Someone explain to me?..

Serialised oil price for 2021 was 59p??. I know just over 50 % was hedged at 58p but average Brent price was over $70 so not sure how price is as low as 59p.

Maybe time to stock up. Hopefully decent tolmount news, decent EOY results and the remainder of held stocks released. Potential for 2022/23 is enormous at these energy prices. Fingers crossed. GLA.

Pearls, interesting theory and you may well be correct. I’m assuming you are referring to the pmo creditors (eg our Asian friends) who were given a 15% stake after the merger. Didn’t someone post a message a while ago stating some of this 15% had been sold?. Would love to know how much of it was still held and by who. Been said in the past that perhaps EIG were adding to their holding. Suppose we can have the same question regarding the old creditors. As we know they don’t normally publicise it.

Why oh why…

Market manipulation?
Hbr bad news afoot?
This bleeding war having major impact on investments.?

Oil T $112
Gas at 430p per therm. Equates to over $300 per boe for no hedged. Even with current poor hedging It equates to over $140 per boe.
Above equates to $22 million per day revenue or $15 million per day FCF.

Why oh why

Sp of 530 would do the trick.

Clown….. some of us might understand. By the way, I think you’re way short of the LT price if these high energy prices remain. IMHO.

Shame that current energy prices didn’t happen 18 months ago. Pmo would still be pmo, ARCM would be running for their lives, the sp might be 3000+ ( new money), and sea lion would still be a possibility. Oh well.

Anyone have an equation that works out boe prices. Last year HBR stated that they would be generating FCF at boe prices above $30-35. Interesting to see how much FCF being generated per boe with oil above $95 and the current high gas prices. Yes, if tolmount comes online it may mean an extra 10% in production (it being extra unhedged gas), but exactly how will that affect the average boe prices for Hbr and therefore extra FCF.

Oil… what we have to remember is that this is a new merged firm which has not produced a set of EOY figures yet. A lot of investors may well be waiting for those figures before deciding whether to invest or not. Those of us investing now are obviously taking a bit more of a gamble I suppose which we may regret or be very happy with ourselves.
You may well be correct. Sentiment following the EOY results will be important . We will have to wait and see. It may flounder or race uphill at speed and yes your 25000 car may be worth 15000 or might even be worth 50000. GLA.

Miles, Surfit, great comments.

You are so correct… we all invest in our own way and make our own decisions. None of us has a crystal ball . These are only just our opinions, we don’t know what might pop around the corner. DYOR. GLA.

Also….something to think about.

Let’s assume HBR even only produce 175kboe per day.
Even with current hedging , we are probably selling the oe at about $70-80, so let’s say revenue at $4.7 billion.
Operating cost at $15 per barrel - $1 billion.
Capital cost incl decomm est at 1.3 billion. According to HBR.
Dividend $200 million.
Debt payments including interest about 800-900 million.
Where does the remaining 1.3 billion go???

Only back of fag packet figures but if I were EIG I wouldn’t be selling my investment just yet.

Any comments on above figures?? Interesting to see EOY results. Above is based on 12 months production, don’t forget we are only 9 months into the merger.

Oil….you keep on mentioning creditors? I didn’t realise that EIG (36% holding being released) were classed as creditors. My understanding from the merger was that this EIG holding was made up of global investors, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, etc. They are investors not creditors. The only 18% creditor shares were released sometime ago. Why if EIG investors agreed to hold over 1.2 billion $ after the merger would they sell at a loss in April ?

Depends on how they do it but yes could be a worry. Bearing in mind we are lucky to generate two million volume daily at the moment…..their holding is 333 million shares.
Personally I would like to think that they agreed to have 36% of shares post merger with PMO because they want ultimately to get substantial profit from it…either from another merger or higher sp. I may be wrong but can’t see them offloading at these energy prices (unless of course there is some disastrous news from HBR) and I’m not talking about Tolmount perhaps not being online this quarter. Going to be very interesting following the EOY results.

Two £2m trades shown as unknown after hours…..buy or sell????

Hi oil, you are correct, with hindsight purchasing BP instead of HBR back in COVID lockdown days was the better option. Like many of you I thought HBR had more of an upside. Hope some of you guys bought both to perhaps alleviate some of the pains of this share.
I don’t agree with your current assessment that HBR is not a better buy than the likes of BP. One thing you can safely say about BP is that the current energy prices are already factored in. I do not think that can be said of HBR. Whether it’s lack of volume, manipulation, EIG mopping up the shares, the fact that HBR is yet to produce an EOY set of results, I don’t know. All I can say is that at these oil/gas prices then any energy company producing over 170k of oil equivalents are making money, lots of it , have to be. So maybe we have to wait until EOY results, wait and see whether EIG start selling their holding after the lock is released.
Any company announcing a 200 million dividend is expecting to make large profit, yes?. Will tolmount be online at EOY results time, let’s hope so. At the end of the day the likes of EIG want to make big profits just like us. What we don’t know is whether they are buiding up their ownership or whether they intend to sell the company for a large make up. None of us know yet.
ONEDB has mentioned a couple of times that he expects SP to eventually rise up to over 1000. I concur. As long as energy prices remain strong, as long as production remains 170k+ , as long as EOY results are good, as long as tolmount comes online then I believe there is a large upside.
And before people get upset, please note that this is just my opinion. HBR/PMO have disappointed us in the past and may do so again. Please DYOR. Like all stocks it is a bit of a gamble… it’s whether you like odds or not.

Only repeating what the board have said. Yes, I know, they may well be talking rubbish again. At the end of the day we buy the shares, take the gamble and try in our own ways assess what the future holds for this share. With oil/gas prices as they are then in my opinion there has to be an upside. At the end of the day, like many of you, I’ve invested my own hard earned cash and am entitled to my view.