Member Info for Kayel

75% of buyback complete, about 37 days before completion.

Be interesting to see how they evaluate each side if a merger was to happen.

Let’s not forget….

Talos has almost $1b debt , Hbr may be debt free soon.

Talos produces 65k per day, Hbr produces 195k.

Both have interests in Zama giving total 30 %, very positive.

Hbr has production and potential development in Asia, potentially very positive.

Hbr might get a fair slice of the pie. If that is then shared between 800 million shares(instead of 925 million) then we may be thankful of the buybacks.

DYOR, GLA

Can someone advise… the 1.5 billion deferred tax charge announced in the EOY results foe EPL….what was that for?…will we be feeding from that over the next few years to help pay EPL tax?….will it affect FCF figures over the next few years??

Or even back up to 80.5. Not sure this commentary is really needed.

New buybacks suggest at current sp number of shares will be reduced from 835m to under 780m.
Buying at current sp will therefore give a divi of approx 7.6%.
Total reduction of shares from original 935m to 780m results in our divi now being worth about 16% more than original pre share buyback position.

As of tonight Hbr still has just over 839k shares (compared to 925k when buy backs started). Approx 9.3% bought back.

More likely the WFT plus extra WFT.

How would floor price work?? .wouldn’t it be nice if we only paid WT on the amounts above floor price. Eg. If floor price is let’s say $75 for oil and actual price is $100 then we only pay WT on the $25 difference. Now that would be nice. …….. dream on I suppose.

This year Hbr may well have paid off 2 billion in debt as well about 60 million interest. That is over 60% of current valuation.

So assuming all factors equal next year, production, energy prices ( I know big assumption ), and assuming the better hedging position for 2023 then we can expect additional FCF next year of nearly 2.5 billion, that is over 75% of current valuation. Unbelievable.

…..They have got rid of £40m worth of shares, that’s not helped SP much.

3rd November is stated on Harbours financial calender for next update

With pound/dollar rate changes I expected the sp to rise. Dollar wise we are now 20% better off than start of year (so let’s add an extra $17 to our non hedged oil price and similarly 50p to gas).

At end of 2022 we will have paid off 2 billion of debt so in comparison for 2023 let’s add another $27 to oil (hedged and non hedged) and similarly an extra 37p to gas.

Sentiment, fears of recession?

….and according to lse 90% are buys, shares of this amount are normally bought for a reason. All are taking notice, perhaps a step up after ftse 100 entry. GLA.

Im sure someone an explain...
The half year announcement stated 69p post hedging realised gas price. I'm confused, with 67% gas hedged at 51p the 69p price suggests that the non hedged realised price was 106p?? (as we know average gas prices in 2022 > 220p). Does this mean that in H1 that most of gas sold is hedged gas and that a much higher percentage of gas sold in H2 will be non-hedged and therefore revenue will be a lot higher in H2??? Must admit was expecting average realised post hedge price of about 106p (perhaps it will be over the full year).

And let’s not forget little hedging in 2024 and perhaps great news regarding Zamia and timpan. Perhaps long and slow is the way to go.

Perhaps it’s the opposite, maybe EIG are going long and slow. I know they transferred a lot of their holding and not sure the reason why.
But think about it….. after the merger our debt was 60% of the market cap at that time. By may next year that maybe reduced to 0%. Yes 0%. We will be paying 1.5 billion off debt in 2022. That’s an extra 1.5 billion on FCF if energy prices remain.
At SP 3.62 dividend is 4.8% add the buyback to that and its 5.1%. After half year results maybe announcement for extra dividend and another 5% buyback. Suddenly dividend up over 8%. Following half year and full year results and perhaps reduction in WFT and zero debt then perhaps SP rises to 600-700. So what’s not to like, decent SP and decent dividend. Just a thought and just my own opinion. GLA

SP over 425 when WT announced. So no, WT cancellation/reduction not priced in. Now that capital reduction complete what’s odds on further buybacks and/or dividend increase post half year results? And we’ll still have the funds for further development.

Question for you experts…..think I read somewhere that WT will be in play from May onwards. Does that mean first 4-5 months is WT free or will it be applied to full years earnings?

No.

Forgot to mention WT, if it actually happens. But don’t know why 25% (probably much less) on profits causes massive downturn in SP.