Member Info for Kayel

Sorry that should have been 12 million and 308 million.

All very confusing to me. Seems to be a few conspiracy theories knocking about, wish I was more knowledgeable in this area.

So here’s a question for you. Last I heard Phil Kirk had 13.2 million shares and as we know EIG still have 37% still on hold. Therefore since the drop there holding is worth 12 million and 72 million less than when SP was at 430. So who is to benefit if the Conspiracy theories are to be believed.

Topped up again at 3.44. More upsides than down. No crystal ball but imho worth the risk.

Now now guys, it’s nearly Christmas, time to be civil with each other.

Harry, you are correct, not quite the update we hoped for. News on Tolmount not particularly good but not sure why at this late time they are coming out with the news now?

Still lots of positives though. Debt coming down nicely, plenty of FCF and therefore profits. Still looking positive if we can stay in the 180-200k daily production with decent oil/gas prices .

I mentioned yesterday I got back in at 3.75, have purchased more today at 3.64. Don’t forget the divi. It was 5% at pre announcement SP (430) now it’s almost 6% at current prices.

Keep the faith. GLA

Let’s hope so. I rarely day trade but I did bailout at 4.15 this morning when sentiment was down. Back in at 3.76. Still lots of positives with HBR and am hoping the SP will build heading towards the EOY results. GLA.

Oil up over last 5 days.. promising.

EIG are largest stakeholders over 30% of shares and come out of lock up next spring. No doubt they will be in talks with the board. Is now the time for HBR to try and drive up the SP. I’m sure the board and EIG would benefit greatly from decent divi. I’m sure both would like a much higher SP next April for offloading shares perhaps. Any thoughts??.

Soder, whilst I agree that buybacks might be better I certainly would not rule out dividend. Yes a 5% divi just give us all 5% in our pockets it would also attract some of the bigger buyers out there and perhaps drive the SP up further. Either way, BB or divi or both, it will send the message out there that HBR is in good shape. As long as we keep sufficient cash in the coffers, we need to keep production up and no doubt will have to make further acquisitions without adding too much to our reduced debts. GLA.

I agree, buyback could certainly help the SP to rise. Reduced assets (ie cash) would result in ROA, ROE increases which might attract more buyers. Could also be a message from the board saying they feel SP has been discounted too much. In any case, following the year end results, and following an announcement regarding dividend or buybacks, this share will be on an upward trajectory. AIMHO, good luck all.

Up over 11% in the past month, let’s have another 10% before Christmas and look forward to end of year results and hopefully a dividend. Looking for 600+ after interims next year. AIMHO.

Well said, I don’t think we will see true value of HBR sp until next summer/autumn we’ll after the EOY results and after the remaining held shares have been in the system for a few months. In the meantime I’m looking forward to trading update next week and the EOY results in March which WILL be excellent if oil/gas prices remain positive. Debt down to 2.1 billion and another 500 million or so in the bank. Maybe even a conservative dividend. A bit of a rollercoaster between now and then so good luck to all you short term traders there will be lots of opportunities. Me, I’m long term. AIMHO.

Assuming Hbr statement saying FCF at $30-$35 poo.
Assuming oil stays above $80
Assuming 190kboe/month

Should be generating $260m FCF per month.
Debt being reduced by approx $50-$60m per month.
** not incl potential extra ongoing costs to sort out tolmount**
IMHO.

Nice to see a profit on smaller revenue ( even though there’s a bit more debt which was to be expected). All looking positive in readiness for the increase in passenger/flight volumes over the next 12 months. Also nice to see that it looks like they will hopefully be extending their foothold across the globe even more over the coming months. Still very confident in the long term.

392, initially in at 405 and managed to average down.

Oops, apologies for grammar/spelling, trying to type while devouring a nice healthy English breakfast.

Cig ram- I concur, a nice markup on existing oil and gas hedges would give us a nice safety given the possible fluctuation from current prices.

Harry - the June update showed us generating $100m cash per month and paying off about $55m of debt per month. Don’t see any reason that should not continue. If there are surprises afoot then I’m sure mr Kirk would not have purchased 100000 shares recently.

Looking forward to end of year results. I think they will be extremely good, debt down to $2.3b and cash up to $1.6b. Might give us a $150m pot for dividend which would still be 4% at current Sp. at that time the big guys (hedge funds, etc) will have a full years figures to ponder over. With the remainder of the held shares being released at the same then the outcome might be spectacular. At the very least the SP might be on a roller coaster for a few months. Future looks good and if oil prices stay stable then who knows what will happen to Zamia and sea lion. AIMHO

Let’s wait and see. If they are already making a profit then my future estimates will be even more conservative than I thought.

Strong results in September???. Depends what you mean by strong results. Hopefully they will be better than last year but I don’t think the cargo/passenger traffic has not risen enough to start generating profit yet. Not expecting news of dividend just yet. Hope I’m wrong.

However, I think the future for Mnzs is very positive. Hopefully flight traffic will continue to increase and may well get back to pre COVID levels in about 12-18 months. I am very impressed that Mnzs continues to expand its foothold across the world, especially during this very trying COVID period. Back in 2018 the SP was over 700, it would not surprise me if we reached those levels again (perhaps even higher) but might have to wait until 2023 . I have £60k invested averaging at 186. I’m in for the long term and am happy to wait a year or two to see how the SP progresses.
Good luck to all.
AIMHO

No problem, apology accepted. We are all here to debate and give our own hopefully meaningful opinions. Like you… my best to all, let’s hope hbr takes us onwards and upwards.

As optimistic as ever Harry.

Hbr ain’t doing great and no divi...

Well the SP ain’t great that’s for sure....but they did generate 100 million in cash and paid off about 60 million per month debt during Q2. That’s 170 million better off per month (that’s about 5% of current Hbr value better off per month). And that’s during a quarter when output was down about 20% because of planned/unplanned outages.
By end of year results I’m expecting (at these oil prices) nearly 2 billion in liquidity and debt down to maybe 2.2 billion. With another 41% of shares coming out of lockdown in September we may see ourselves in ftse 250 and maybe ftse 100 next year if SP rises.
As far as as divi is concerned .... it was never going to happen straight away...let’s see what they announce at half year or full result stage. With all this cash I’m expecting 5%, if so that will drive the SP forward.
I’m here for the LT averaging at 392 (after topping up at 372) and if oil prices stay north of $60 then I’m confident I’m on a winner. AIMHO.

Seems to be a lot of posts concentrating on the SP consolidation and the ‘fractual’ shares the PI’s will lose. Wish I knew what the average PI share holding was. I currently hold just over 140k shares and will lose £2.60 out of £30k (less then 0.01%). I know some of you will have more and some will have less. Let’s not forget that vast number of shares are held by creditors,etc (held in big blocks), so impact from their shares will be negligible. It’s only a guess, but It wouldn’t surprise me if fractual shares will be less than 0.005% of the total. Not a small amount in monetary terms and let’s hope some some lucky charity will benefit. What I’m getting at is let’s not get too carried away with the fractual share loss as on the whole it makes no difference. Personally , IMHO, I think the pros of the consolidation outweigh the cons and with the current oil price range I can see a substantial SP rise over the next year.