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It's not about the company osg. When the tide goes out, the tide goes out, and every boat can get grounded no matter how big, small, good or bad.
Market forces are bigger than any individual company.
We buy a 2.5kg bag of Impact Whey Protein monthly/every 6 weeks or so. They had been drifting down in price in the early part of the year, but Cong is right, lately (and by lately I mean the last two months or so) they have crept back up regardless of discount codes. The £55.19 it currently is, is some £10-11 higher than 6 months ago.
Would be fine with this, if it doesn't result in customer retention losses, but that seems like an uncompetitive direction of travel given that underlying whey prices have and continue to fall through the floor.
Fair enough Oke.
AFAIK ASOS's net assets are 793m.
Boohoo, as you say, 400m
By definition, net asset figures already include the debt.
I'm happy to answer your questions t4g but I think you posed them rhetorically.
I'd just say, a year ago I posted here that the charts looked like it would go to 35p. I'm just saying, today, they look like they might - I'm not saying they will, but they might, go a bit lower this time. Again, based wholly on the charts. Boohoo may well still be good on paper, I'm not disputing that, I'm just trying to read the runes on the market, as I'm sure we all are. I doubt you would categorically rule out Boohoo retesting 32p at this stage, since it looks likely to do. It just might hit that sooner than the bottom in the rest of the market, giving it scope to be dragged down further.
ASOS has 731m in LT debt, 308m in cash. Boohoo has 325m in LT debt, 330m in cash. Given that ASOS actually returned to profitability this quarter, and by revenue, is over double the size of Boohoo. I'd say their relative strength is not dissimilar.
Personally, I adjudge ASOS to be a better company, given that more of Boohoo's demographic is Shein's demographic, which it has a fight to compete against. The fact that Boohoo is trading around a similar market cap to ASOS suggests Boohoo could still be considered somewhat overvalued.
32 is definitely a key support, but the way the market is shaping up for the next few weeks, this could overshoot again (it dipped as low as 30p last September). It's possible if 32 falls, there might be opportunity at 25-26. Boohoo has yet to suffer the same peak to trough % fall as ASOS has, seemingly without much reason, given how much they otherwise track each other. 25p would bring that discount closer to ASOS and other peers.
Probably, but there are people who panic at 10% movements, worried that it means something fundamental about the company. Not everything is a cause for concern, that's all. Sometimes it's just normal price movements and consolidation - and sometimes the charts can give a heads up when that's happening.
Make of this what you will, but the arbitrary lines I have drawn on my chart have this testing 93p by Tuesday next week. It ought to find strong support there if it did, but if the pullback continues beyond that, it wouldn't find too much until reuniting with the ~68p trend line, by early-mid September.
This morning it bounced down off the underside of a new descending trend line at 101 that started 2 weeks ago, so far confirming that trend, so unless it can break above that the short term forecast is a bit rubbish.
That's all in the context of the wider market looking a bit downward trending, at least for the next few weeks. Just to gird yourself somewhat against what could be a few red days in the pipeline.
True, it's all been very good lately. It's been in this uptrend, albeit a very erratic one, since October last year, bouncing around in an upward sloping channel, so the long term trajectory certainly looks good.
It did concern me yesterday that it fell through the most recent 2-3 month trend line though. Below that is support at 93p, which is where it also intersects a much longer term trend line around 92.5.
Below that there's not much. There's a lower bound trend line that's been retested 4 times in the last 10 months which currently lies around 66p; which would be another higher low after the last month testing higher highs. After such a strong 100% rise since May, the way the price action has looked over the last week and a half feels like some form of pull back and consolidation period is here, I'm just not sure what that will look like, which makes me nervous.
That's just my reading of the charts though, does anyone have a more optimistic short term forecast? :?
Ok, I understand now what you're saying, but companies that try to become an everything to everyone company usually end up as nothing to no-one companies. Sports nutrition is MyProtein's niche; a niche with a huge addressable market that isn't even close to being fully addressed yet. They only need to dominate the niche they already operate in and they could yet quite easily find 5-10bn in yearly global revenue from just the gym/fitness community. They don't need to waste any effort trying to coax the average grocery shopper who isn't going to be inclined to pay a premium for a supplemented product they don't need.
Stick to core strengths and competencies, fight to maintain that market edge in their niche. I really wouldn't want them to waste time and resources worrying about all the markets and products they're not in. That sounds like diworsification and ought to be avoided.
"I think what yespsb said is correct, if you're eating an average western diet and are not concerned with gaining muscle"
I suppose I don't quite understand your argument then. MyProtein sells to people who explicitly ARE concerned with gaining muscle. It's sports nutrition for those for whom it will materially benefit. What's the problem here?
Are cat food companies supposed to be concerned about all the people who don't have cats? Why should a sports nutrition brand be concerned about those who don't do sport?
For those who do participate in significant physical activity, anything which damages muscle fibres, protein requirements for muscle maintenance often exceed that readily supplied in a healthy, balanced diet - unless you're consuming excessive amounts of meat, therefore supplementation is additive and beneficial.
Fortunately, that's untrue yespsb. The scientific consensus is still, as far as I know, that for building muscle (which is the goal of the demographic protein supplementation is marketed towards) one should aim for 0.7-1g per lb or 1.6-2.2g per kg. Those ranges are considered optimal for maximizing muscle growth from strength training. So for example, someone weighing 75kg might aim to consume between 140-160g of protein a day.
While it's true that per portion, the human body can only process and effectively utilize somewhere between 25-35g of protein, depending on the protein source (which is why protein powder serving scoops fall in that range) - but unless you're eating 6, spaced, high protein meals a day, you're going to struggle to consistently hit that. The standard square 3 meals a day are not going to cut it, and simply having 3 chicken breasts and 120g of protein all at once at dinner isn't going to work because about 90g of that will be wasted and excreted unused. So for those trying to hit macros, protein shakes, bars and other supplementation are the easiest and often only way of hitting their macros regularly.
Supplementation would only be a waste of money for those not seeking to gain muscle, as only about 0.7-1g per kg is required to maintain (neither lose nor gain) untrained muscle mass - but those people are not buying protein powder anyway.
About a year ago, back when it was floating between 60-90p. I posted several times that, despite not disliking the recovery potential of the company, the charts indicated it could go as low as 35p, and that personally, I would wait to see before buying. T4G didn't like this. He took to mockingly asking for the charts that showed it going to 35p. His view was that essentially that everyone else was wrong and variously criminal or duplicitous for suggesting such things. He was fairly abusive and stymied genuine discussion on the board as he policed it for any opinions that differed from his own. You now have the charts T4G, but you still don't seem to have the humility to allow others to share dissenting views here. It's a forum, it ought to be a place for open discussion, not a lectern for you to belittle and lecture from.
Oof. Apparently, THG is now a fast fashion empire too.
That's another arrow in the quiver. I thought fast fashion was one of the few things THG didn't try to do.
This from "journalist and action-adventure thriller writer" Matthew Lynn, a man who famously said of Apple in 2007 "…they will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry." I suppose most would be happy to take the other side of the trade to whatever he's on.