Member Info for Kalan

Not Zak Mir - and no 12.75p target price - checked - rampers return. Beware a pump and dump.

Read both rns twice - lots in there - makes it easier now for newcomers to assess the situation.
It looks to me as if these two rns form the core of the sales pitch being prepared by banks.
Some facts:
West Kitlin - only own 68% - also been mined over many years previously so some of best areas picked over. Lots to go at though. Doubling production next year - will it bring in £1 million per annum profit? not sure. They have ounces in reserve which will help finance the company overheads as they sell it. production, even doubled unlikely to finance the company on it's own. Warrant money raised which is in the pot and being spent.
MT - lots of talk of 40 million ounces but only have just under 2 million ounces in mining right. Only own 80% of MT.
Sinosteel finance only covers 80% of the cost of developing MT. EUA have right to start up the deal any time in next 8 years - not touched the $50 million subcontractor drawdown because they don't want to commit to the deal whilst trying to sell up. The flanks are not proven or licensed yet - license has a very good chance of being granted but this means a lot more expenditure to drill them and add them to reserves (15 million ounces thought to be possible).
The rest is sales blarney about the region in which EUA have no interest or licences.

As a result of the info - most of it already out there - I lower my MT licenced mine valuation to 6.5p to 8p.
West Kitlin valuation as a stand alone 0.1p as it barely covers costs but probably worth more to the group = say 0.3p as it helps cover overheads prior to a potential sale.
The limbs are difficult to value - lots of area and potential ounces but needs drilling, which costs and it may not prove up - so not even in the lowest category of JORC compliance and anyone buying is taking a huge gamble. Therefore unlikely to add a lot to the sale price IMO. say 1p.
So overall valuation I would say about 8p.
What would change the valuation - limb licence 1p to 2p. Placing to raise money for drilling - knock off dilution - say 1p to 5p depending on time scale and amount needed. MT flanks proven and licenced - add say 30p to 40p.
A quick sale will be a 3 to 4 bagger IMO.
Trying to go alone could end up at 0.5p or 40p - but it certainly isn't only worth 0.5p now and it certainly wouldn't be worth anywhere north of 10p for at least another 4 or 5 year IMO.
I can see why they have gone for a quick sale - they can just about scrape the cash together through warrant money, sale of stock and production to get them through to a deal - maybe and the sale is a certain payback.
Share price - don't think it's going below 2p before Christmas so may trade it again sub 2.3p which looks like it's going to be fairly soon.
After Christmas - it could be a long wait for the short of patience and other companies will be hyped - EUA may well become cheap again, especially a year from now with no sale and another winter of no income to get through - worth watching and tradi

No

Saw the director dealings and thought ey up leon's finally bought some. Next time maybe. have to say though we shouldn't have any expectation - their finances are their business IMO.

apologies for caps lock - wasn't meant to look like I was shouting lol.

No more than 11% extra bob - but it all helps - the board say they have enough cash to get through to the start of mining season in march - after that it could be a placing IMO - but we don't know enough and we don't know about the state of progress by bankers. Bankers time plus finding buyer time plus solicitors time - going to be some time I think. CASH MATTERS TO PUT BOARD IN STRONG POSITION TO NEGOTIATE - THATS WHY I THINK A PLACING WILL COME.

This years production is already known bobtastic. It was limited by licence and the profit per ounce. I calculated about £600000. And contractors took two thirds of that. Thats why they hyped the company and forced warrant holders to pay up. They were cash strapped. Going to double production next year. Still very low income. Its 89% platinum by value. The MT mine is the key. And having enough cash to see through to a deal. Production shut down in October through to March. Sp heading below 2.3p but prob stay above 2p for next week or two.

Finally a couple of posts about the company rather than the utter drivel spouted on here by most. (props and gmf78).
Share still in a downtrend - I think the downtrend will end this week for anyone wanting to buy at a more reasonable price.

3x rns and interview - why?

Interesting that Leon is saying copper will start in Q1 2020 with 250 ounces per month - should hopefully go some way towards meeting Kabwe running costs whilst the other work is underway.

The WRES board is like the start of the Grand National. The participants are manouvering their approach to the start line - the starting mechanism is tested and the tape is attached (we are operational) - some horses get a bit giddy and start pushing at the tape. They have to step back a bit and the spike in interest doesn't hold. We need a signal from the organiser - he needs to get his flag, unfurl it and then wave it in the air to say the race is going ahead - we have everything to get the race underway. He picks up the flag, the interest spikes again but he fails to unfurl it or wave it. When the flag is unfurled (the extra money lands) and the flag is raised (the grant money arrives) then everyone will know the race is going ahead and the spike in interest will reach fever pitch and will hold until the tape goes up - a lovely line of participants pushing at the tape and then (break even) the tape goes up and the race for shares begins - a mass of participants pushing and driving forward trying to get ahead of the game. At the end of the race we all collect our prize money and move onto the next race. In the meantime DB (20 /1 outsider) and Oldskool (2/1 joint favourite) are sweating up in the paddock - getting into quite a lather - the smart horses move to one side and give them space saving their energy for the race ahead.
Result: winner Masterman's Folly ridden by John La Parilla trained by Reg Ua coming in at 3/1 giving you a 300% return plus your money back.

Hi stockdale - gold is money - it has been for centuries - everything else moves up and down relative to gold - dollars are not money - they are accepted in lieu of money.
when the world goes t..ts up you would expect folks to want the real money i.e. gold -they don't they follow the leaders like good little sheeples and buy dollars - sad but true - look back.

I agree stockdale - there are 3 paths - the uncertainty as you say - mine themselves - sell the assets (cash flow a danger if it takes a long time) - it all falls through. The last one is highly unlikely (a world crash is the only scenario I can see for that). The uncertainty will keep the sp down short term. Not predicting sp levels for the coming weeks (I have for my own purposes) as I don't want to be seen as manipulating - wish I could manipulate it - would be in Barbados now.

In the last recession - everyone expected gold and silver and platinum to soar and fiat currencies to crumble. The opposite happened - everyone bought the dollar and sold precious metals.

To finish - those who say the company should mine MT have a point - it is potentially worth 14p or 15p per share IMO but with risk attached.
You spend hours researching and calculating and come up with 2 really positive scenarios and share it - what do you get - you get trolled. Next is I will be accused of being the troll. After that I am trying to talk the sp down - even though I just gave 2 values which are 3 to 4x the current sp for buyout and about 6x the current sp for mining themselves.
If I am so far out why doesn't the market value the sp higher now? Detailed answers only please with reasons and calculations - I can do without Tesco checkout level nonsense from folks who bought cos their mate told them to.

Look at the company valuation of MT NPV on the company website. look at it.

You-know - no a stock market crash would bring down the value of all commodities and the punters would run to the dollar just like last time and send metals down as they are priced in dollars.

Hi Brotherjoey - the palladium price has not risen due to the German bunds going negative - if this were true all precious metals would have soared. The diesel car scandal caused the shortage as manufacturers switched from diesel to petrol cars. petrol use palladium and rhodium in the catalytic converters whilst diesel use platinum. Platinum can be used in the petrol cars however and is more efficient than palladium - but there are costs in converting and electric is on it's way. hydrogen cars need platinum. It is highly likely that palladium will fall and platinum rise if manufacturers take the plunge - but eUA is protected as they can mine more platinum from the alluvial deposits.

Some keep posting billions of pounds in palladium - it is true - there is at least 2 billion value in the total assets.
Getting to it costs money e.g. MT about $180 million with interest. Note that the $50 million often quoted (some as owed to EUA) is part of that money sub contracted back to EUA subsidiary by Sinosteel. The $180 million needs to be paid out of the future profits.
Mining the assets themselves will take about 17 to 18 years from here for MT and so the up front cost is now and the profits are in the future and so need discounting - the bankers and potential buyers know this.
Palladium is high now - for the past 5 years it has averaged under $1000 per ounce. It may well fall back in the next 17 years or so - would you value the mine at the current inflated price and expect it to stay there for the next 17 years - very risky - I want a discount for that says the buyer.
So how do we value it - I have had 2 goes:
Valuation 1 - I compared the mine to a similar sized gold mine and adjusted the figures from a professional valuer to represent the different minerals and proportions being mined at MT (note the ratio of palladium to platinum at MT is 2:1 not 3:1 as published in the last presentation so be careful what you use).
Anyway I got £192 million for MT alone or about 7p a share - what do you add in for the other assets - well I chuck in a generous 1p - the market until recently had it down as next to £0 in value. So 8p per share if sold.
Valuation 2 - I accepted the Sinosteel NPV calculation based on $1000 per ounce palladium from 2017 which gives a valuation of MT on NPV of under £200 million. About 7p or 8p per share. This figure includes a high discount rate for the uncertainty of the 17 year period and the costs of the debt incurred by Sinosteel which will be passed to EUA. Now much has been made of the increase in palladium value since 2017 and quite rightly so - those who say we should see EUA mine it have a point - they take on the risk of the palladium price remaining buoyant but reap the rewards slowly over time. I calculate the rise in palladium enhances about half of the mined minerals and so we get a lift up of half of the rise. I get a value of about £400 million for MT or about 14p (say 15p with rhodium value increase) per share based on NPV. Great but would you pay that as a person willing to buy out the company - would you give all the uplift to EUA and take on all the risk - no - so you want it at a discount - you will want it at £200 million - the average palladium price of the past 5 years - not at the current possible peak - so you want to buy at 7p to 8p - the negotiation ensues and we get an agreed price.
My valuation - is 8p to 10p - it would be closer to 8p if EUA were in a cash strapped position as the negotiators would have them over a barrel - that's why they are grabbing warrant money and trying to double production from digging around in the alluvium for Platinum from next year.

Brilliant denfos.
Strange but true - the initials of Rod Stewarts last 4 girlfriends were GKP, FRR, SXX and the latest EUA - spooky or what.
Lol. Anyone want to own up to having lost money on all 4? I like the latest girlfriend best of them all though - there is a chance here.