Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Futures indicte copper rising from here to August. Thereafter falling back to where we are over the next 2 years. Of course, predictions are invariably wrong, experts don't know what they are talking about and the OBR are always wrong. Trust your gut. It's all you've got to rely on.
From what is visible.
Warrants outstanding
750,000 at3.4p 22.7.24
4,036,431 at 13p 21.1.25
Options
23,964,491. No idea what price or dates. This is after the 9,000,000 have been exercised.
Hope JLP invest the £190,000 wisely.
The same seemed to happen with platinum and palladium prices. The reports would say there is a deficit year after year and the price would keep falling. The key with JLP is diversity and flexibility to react to whatever happens. The finance bloke is all over this. Short term - all about Roan and signing off the waste rock project. Long term charts down until falling wedge is broken. The price for that to happen gets lower every day. Short term the minor trend is a slightly upwards consolidation at these levels and above. (Trends can change, other charting is available).
Agree 100% with your view on the waste rock project Jonah. JLP's valuation is based on current operations. PGM tiny value, chrome decent chunk of the value and Roan another part of the value. This part, Roan, is undervalued IF it is fully operational by the end of April. That's the tug of war in the sp in recent days.
The waste rock project stands alone and is not reflected in the sp IMO. Modules will do the work there - totally separate from what we have now - 100% de-risked by the deal which is yet to be signed. Any profit from this adds to the sp of JLP IMO. At the moment we have no signatures and we don't know where the product from the modules ends up. It's pie in the sky at the moment. The sp will react to it as it becomes more established. 6.7p by year end and 9.5p in 18 months IMO.
As for Bushy - I still value the negative poster who keeps us on our toes - but he's really embarrassed himself over the weekend. Maybe he thinks the sp isn't going to tank any more and the outpouring is a sign of his internal struggle. I wish folks could stop being so nasty (adjective) as they make themselves look like ...... (insert own noun - plural).
Spot on again as usual Edzi. Personally, I wait and Wait because of my long knowledge of the company and also I use charts (sorry dorfan) to help pick entry and exit points. The investment is based on fundamentals though.
My concerns, which have held me back from investing since I looked back in at around 6.7p are/were:
1. The strong long term downtrend - the worries have been balanced on this due to a reasonably strong support line from the bottom at 4.6p though to 4.9p and indicating a bottom MAY be in.
2. The Roan fudge on timescales due to front end electrics and dismantle and rebuild. Again worries reduced as Leon has acknowledged this now and saying end of April rather than end of March - expecting further slippage but the market now knows this.
3. Cash flow - the placing was rushed through because they were running out of cash - the reasoning that it was to fast track the new waste rock project was a cover - this is done - cash flow is no longer a problem.
4. PGM's are bust and JLP are soon going to be dumping them on the ground when the chrome upgrade takes place - a decision needs to be made about trucking and tolling to Northam. The chrome/ pgm situation needs a wholistic approach not an engineering solution that doesn't positively affect the bottom line - still to be resolved.
5. Leon is an engineer who doesn't always have the cash in main view - again addressed due to the newish financial expertise now on board - risk assessment and prioritisation now being costed. The solution to 4 above will hopefully be made on financial grounds rather than just engineering excellence.
It was the chart situation that led me to buy at 5p on the nose when the support line held. The share is still in a long term downtrend but the band width may just have narrowed to 5p to 6p for the near term. Below 5p I need to buy more, above 6p I need to buy more. Bushy will buy if it goes above 6p IMO - ultra cautious - you don't lose money that way - he knows that 5p may hold and that's why his posts yesterday took a downward turn. GLA. Have a nice weekend.
Excellent post DRU - good to get a view from the Continent we are invested in. Hope to hear more from you, although you will have to put up with the very few children on here who still think they are in the school playground. 10 minutes actually doing some mining might help them grow up a bit.
I noticed that too moneyman - the 1% of share capital. However, when the sp gets above 7.5p you will be much more interested in those warrants. When the warrants are taken up, a large proportion are then sold. given the low turnover of shares on a weekly basis, the warrants can then have a large impact on the share price. e.g. Share price 12p, warrants taken up at 7.5p - extra sells tip the balance of trades and the sp drops to 9p. Every time the sp rises for the next 3 or 4 months, more selling drags the sp back until the warrant shares have gone. Not of immediate concern of course but at some point in the future holders will have that problem, we hope.
P.S. can we give over with the Bushy did this, said that, wrote this on HUM. It's so boring, let him post, read it, take it in or ignore it as you will just like any other poster. Do an Elsa - let it go.
I first invested in JLP at about 19p and it shot up to over £1. It was a total stroke of luck at the time but it's had me returning repeatedly ever since. Best to buy the shares when it's had a torrid time and then hold for better days. the other way round isn't so profitable. It was all based on Tjate new mine back then. Endless drilling. At the end of it they just sold off a small part of the proven mine area to an adjacent mine for working capital. (Twichenham ws it? - the memory dulls). The merger with Braemore and the Leon connection took over after that. The new mine was too expensive and conroast was the future. Lot's of false dawns along the way including purchase of energy generation capacity. Lot's of expedient projects by Colin. The current plan is as good as any they have had. Having watched the presentation - my main 2 concerns were addressed to some extent:
Leon is stating that Roan will be at full capacity by end of April - I would snatch his hand off for it being up and running but we live in hope: and
Cash flow - convinced more that ever that without the recent placing JLP would have run out of cash - not the case now after the placing so less concerned so long as Roan is operational sooner rather than later. Good luck to all us holders. Lol.
Mike - your post does not make sense.
"Kalan, there hasnt been one single transaction at 4.65 today! More lies inferred from you. I’m actually viewing Bushey as classy compared to you and he’s not very high up in the food chain!"
I said it is bouncing off a support line FROM the 4.65p, which of course we all know was a couple of months back. I bought at 5p and I AM NOT A LIAR, please go back to being Mr Positive and stop trying to copy the vitriol being spat out by Gotreal and increasingly Seisnav.
I post that I've bought and give a reason why and balance it up by admitting it's a gamble because the long term trend is down and you have a go at me. Why?
p.s. two people responded to my request for help with charting and one of them was Bushy and he offered some useful advice regarding taking a possible punt within the ongoing trading range. The self appointed 'nice' guys need to take a close look at themselves. Excellent posts from Edzi over the past week - thank you.
Seems to be bouncing off a support line from the 4.65p low. As soon as it hits this support line. Buyers appear. Ist tranche bought. Trade or hold. Doubling up if it drops to next support line. Which it could easilly do. Could go either way from here but long term downtrend dominates until it's briken. As Bushy said.
I'm glad Heroic is still here - seems like one of the nice guys to me - they are in short supply on the internet.
Any chartists out there with any positives (Barchart have 88% sell recommendation). Starting to feel like we are entering the capitulation phase of bottoming - anyone more technically gifted than me want to offer some insight?
Spot on Edzi.
Lots of positives (genuinely lot's of positives.). Roan upgrade should be one month away now but it's 2 months (or more).
Chrome is looking great but won't hit the bottom line for about 9 months due to re-investment in chrome expansion (very wise). PGM's are going to struggle to wipe their noses.
What are we missing? - the above - why are we missing it? - I don't know, it's all been said often enough and been rubbished enough.
I am going to invest here - but what's the rush - the sp is still in a long term downtrend (perhaps a flag being formed - keeping an eye on it).
Sentiment needs to turn - where's the catalyst? Roan - well that got pushed back a month or so (it was screemingly obvious).
Key sp's to watch - support 4.9p 4.6p 3.2p.
- resistance 5.7p, 6.2p.
Perhaps tomorrow will force it up through 5.7p and the holders can have a good laugh. We'll see. If so - I'll join in and have a good laugh at myself. I'd deserve it lol. GLA. Keep smiling.
Well you have 20 years experience of Leon TG5 so I'm not going to argue with you. Leon does have exceptional technical knowledge. Good to see the Mintek conroast r and d didn't go to waste. I think Wendy would have been eased to see clean up of years of polution at least. As you say, for investors it's the ponds, shillings and pence that matters. I can see elements of Colin Birds training in Leon's updates. Always read between thelines and listen to the positive and negative views. P.s. Bushy Tailed gets some hammer on here for his walk on the negative side but he's not a patch on you back in the day. Lol.
TG5 the original neigh sayer on JLP if I'm not mistaken, the other side of the coin to the much missed Wendy Durham. Hope you are well TG5.
Gotreal started abusing me about 5 years ago - more or less as soon as he turned up - very sad individual - surely no-one takes any notice of what he posts. Always positive despite holding from 22p down to 5p and always nasty. Freud would have a field day.
Agree with all those positives. Leon has said that the chrome profits will pay for the chrome expansion which is good. Pgms are as dead as a dodo, down over 3% today. Going to be rangebound between 700 and 1100 for platinum imo. Copper is the key to bottom line over the next 6 to 12 months and then copper and chrome after that. Copper is belatedy ( I think that's Heroics justifiable point) delivering what was promised. Just thenext 2 to 4 months to negotiate. About 13 weeks is my guess or 13 Roan cup finals LUFC1111.
Seisnav. My posts do NOT make any difference to the share price. Trying to have a balanced discussion. I don't detest you because I don't know you. I really am a very nice guy with no hidden agenda. Pity folks can't believe such a person exists. Good luck with your investments.
im fine thanks. my football teams not doing all that well though. got a few bets on leeds for promotion. very lucky with the old covid19 thing. i don't know a single person who died or even got more than a few symptoms with it. as i say very lucky. i stopped posting because i decided to cut out all of the things and people that were negatives in my life. unfortunately on these boards you can't just converse with people like you and edzi et al. hope you and yours are all well. up the pea****s.