Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It's a computerised systematic error Heroic. All shares below the median point of the spread 5.45p are recorded as sells. So if you bought 15 minutes ago at 5.429p it would be recorded as a sell, because computers are dumb. Not just computers that are dumb, but they are certainly dumb.
Thanks Edzi I agree with all you say. I wasn't suggesting that the Chinese are planning to flood the market, just that if an Editor asked for such an article, someone would write it. Sorry I wasn't clear. My bad. As for buying in as cheap as possible I simply can't understand why others don't, fear of missing out maybe. My amateur charting says the sp may drop a little more and I may get my 5.2p to 5.3p. The market makers seem to be in a dilemma. 15 minutes ago, they would let me buy as much as I wanted but they weren't allowing sells above £1500. I suspect the large seller of the past couple of days wants to sell another block but there aren't enough buyers. To get buyers in they need to drop the price, but they may lose their seller. All postulation by me. I just find it interesting watching the sp action, which is quite unusual at the moment. I suppose it's the doldrums. Don't want to be out come close of play on Thursday though. Averaging in from here on in. Then I can start ramping lol. Because I move the market. rofl.
Just read the article Edzi. It looks like the Editor has picked up on the devious Chinese mantra and asked someone to write an article whereby the Chinese look underhand and a threat.
If the mood of the day was for China being a backwards nation which makes silly decisions the article could have been re-written saying that China had overestimated the copper requirements of it's economy and was now being forced to stockpile copper at great expense or shut down production. They could of course be planning to start exporting copper, including current excess production and the stockpile to flood Western markets making the West's mines unprofitable, forcing them to shut down, thus creating a monopoly for the Chinese. It looks like tomorrow's chip paper to me.
A few pence rise will see you sitting pretty Wyatt Earp and a penny or two rise should get you back in profit Icmax. You've bot avoided the cardinal sin of selling at the bottom. My problem has always been selling too early when I'm on a winner. Never easy selling when it's rising or it appears to have had a small pullback which continues and turns into a full scale pullback. very difficult to spot and I've learnt not to beat myself up about getting it wrong from time to time. If it's cheap, keep adding. Your commitment should get a handsome reward over the next 12 to 18 months IMO. Good luck.
Agree Jonah - JLP are inbuilt survivors - built in the mould of Colin Bird - Yorkshire Grit and tenacity.
I first bought JLP on 15th April 2009 for 13.5p (sold for 44p on 3rd July 209), been a fan ever since.
However, the longest I have ever held shares for is just under a year continuously. Lowest price paid was 2.38p on 23rd March 2018.
Any true long term holders out there - gotreal has at least 4 years I believe, having bought sub 3p and held up to 22p and carried on holding until now. Anybody beat 4 years continuous or bought before April 2009?
Colins strategy was to grab anything that looked like an oppotrunity. I remember your first attack on me gotreal. Star zinc and GLR. Colins plan. Put a road in. Scoop the zinc up off the ground, put it through Sable in a JV with JLP. How about overcoming power problems by producing our own at Middleburg. Sold to fund the next big idea. Diversity became a plan after it happened. Re- writing history won't change it.
After 20 years of being in and out of JLP I'm in no doubt how we ended up hrre. Colin Bird seeking out disparate opportunities and chancing it. There was never an ovrrall strategy. 3 cardbrag and oldrongo have been around and seen the false promisses and massive dilution and abandonment of yesterdays great opportunity. Tjate, Conroast, Middleburgh pgm with chrome on the side, fine chrome recovery etc. Through it all JLP survived and had a moment in the sun with Tjate and again due to the pandemic. The chrome sideshow has been seized upon by Leon and it's saved even more dilution. The move to copper is the first clearly thought out long term plan. It utilises all Leon's experience and coupled with the fortuitous chrome price could and possibly should finally transfirm JLP into a serious player. The financial bloke sees the picture and is adding discipline to the duversification that happened by the grabbing of oportunities. 3 cardbrag is right to ask how it happened with reference to chrome. It was fortune that favoured the brave. When we get over the short term hurdles, a couple of months to go. JLP will become an overnight success, 20 plus years in the making. We hope.
Perfectly sensible question 3 card brag. Chrome will become even more profitable from here on in. The two new modules will increase oriduction and there will also be economies if scale. On hrime we di need to be aware of costs. Fuel costs went up 47% last year and chrome accounted for 93% of that usage. Leon is happy that margins will increase but things can change like they did with pgms. The finance bloke is keen on duversifying metals for that reason.
Copper will become as profitable as chrome but not yet. If there is to be a disapointment in the next oprations update, due soon. I think it will be copper priduction as Roan is only running at 40% of capacity at the moment.
1.5 million shares were sold in the last 10 minutes at prices between 5.4 and 5.42.
During the day the share price for buys was roughly between 5.46 and 5.5, lower than Friday, despite a predominance of buys throughout the day..
Question - did the market makers know about the sells earlier in the day and balk at buying them for fear of the share price dropping too low for them to profit on their sale. Keeping the potential sales until the end of the day allowed them to sell shares they new they would purchase at a lower price later without spooking the market. Just a theory - anyone have knowledge of this (dark pools?).
That's fair enough Heroic - personally I would like to see and end to all the backbiting and one upmanship. Wouldn't it be lovely if we could all comment, positively and negatively, without reprisals. We could all do better by sharing our thoughts. Anyway, that's enough from me. Still not bought yet, getting itchy fingers but still think it's going a bit lower in the short term. Ni IRH update for a couple of weeks takes away the threat of positive news scuppering my re-entry. Fishing for the bottom is not wise but it is fun. GLA.
P.s. Jonah, I think you misread my comment about a lot depending on IRH deal. I was specifically talking about the long term value of JLP in response to Bluebelly's post, not the short term. Roan front end and then we switch attention to Thutse 1st Module. Delivery, delivery, delivery.
Listened to the podcast. very good interview I thought. Seisnav is right that IRH is a couple of weeks away in terms of "an update". So Bluebelly can relax about his upcoming investment being after an IRH rns.
Agree with all of Oldrongo's positives below.
Two points from Leon's answers which stood out for me having listened to him for many years:
He did not say placings are at an end. He said he looked forward to Zambian operations being self financing in the same way as South African operations are.
Secondly, he fudged the warrants issue. By chance, this morning I was on the school run early and had an hour whilst the gandkids woke up and searched out the warrants and, what Leon didn't say Oldrongo was that these are the outstanding warrants and they are not time lapsed or all at 13p. They aren't of immediate concern but I've got them jotted down:
22 July 2024 750,000 at 3.4p - small no worries
19 Nov 2024 7,818,750 at 4.13p - similar to the recent options.
26 July 2025 750,000 at 3.9p - again small.
7 Dec 2025 22,279,492 at 5.2p - significant but a way off.
21 Jan 2026 4,036,431 at 13.2p no worries.
In addition there appear to be 23,964,491 options which I can't find a price or timeline for - significant.
A massive positive, which I wasn't across, I have to admit, was that one of the Thutse modules should be running by End of June. reduces capex and increases income from that point on which helps my own, much derided, definition of cash flow.
Overall, very rosy long term, strengthening significantly in the medium term, short term - better news to me at least on chrome, Roan will not be fully operational by end of April (listen very carefully to what Leon said), warrants and options are an issue but not immediate we hope, we are likely to have another placing or two for Zambia (good or bad, you decide, right or wrong, you decide).
Overall very positive, with caveats.
Not that it's any of your business seisnav - I am not a trader. I tried it and wasn't very good at it. We only have 3 decisions to make, trader or not.
Do we want to hold shares in the company? Almost everyone here has made that decision with a yes.
What price you are willing to pay?
What price will you sell at?
Buying at 10p, holding to 22p and continuing to hold down to 5p would make me think I was getting my decisions wrong.
Buy as cheap as you can. Sell as high as you can. I'm trying to buy as cheap as I can. When I buy. Selling becomes a possibility and time in and pace of rise and charts plus news will inform that next decision.
Looking at a share and buying because you like it and holding whstever happens dies not make you a better person. Buying and selling again after 30 minutes does not make you evil. Good luck with your strategy. I won't be second guessing what you do or criticise you for what you do. Back to nice discussions now.
Have to agree about the future. Once the sp gets above 6.7p, then there's no telling where it will end up. Could just be 9p. A lot depends on how lucrative the IRH deal turns out to be and the roll out to other projects. Too many unknowns to predict.
I think I'll be buying this week too Bluebelly, maybe today for my first lot and a day or two later for my second lot. Going to have a good look at the charts and indicators now. Would like 5.2p to 5.3p but we'll see.
A breath of fresh air Bluebelly. 100% agree. Looking for a re-entry point myself. Took profits after the recent pump took it up to far toofast. IRH deal and Roan positive update could be the catalyst( s). On the other hand drifting along with no news and further Roan delay (I think the market is expecting this) means the sp is likely to go a little lower in the short term. Hope you are well.
Apologise - genuine mistake - I lump Sable and Roan together as copper production (wrongly). The delay in Roan has to be paid for somehow - maybe the pgm's cover this. My original point is cash is flowing out faster than it's coming in and the game changer is when this is no longer the case. End of April (?).
Memory not 100% on this but are we expecting chrome modules up and running by Christmas? They are being funded out of chrome profits which is a huge positive. Roan is being funded from the placing which achieved more than planned so fingers crossed the over run at Roan will still be able to be completed with the cash JLP has and there won't be any need to raise cash. The sooner the IRH deal is signed the better as JLP can claim back the cash they have spent on this project so far.