Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Not confused at all. Capex is expenditure. We can discuss the accountancy all you like. When it comes to cash to pay bills from whatever source then JLP would not have had the ability to pay those bills without the placing. What we need is an end to placings and that means meeting all costs from cash generated after expenses. If I didn't think Roan could change that then I wouldn't touch JLP.
It happens all the time Cygnus 7. Computers are dumb. If the bid/offer are at 5.6 and 5.7 then all below 5.65 will be marked as sells when they may not be and vice versa. The recent trades at 5.644 ish are cases in points. They are clearly buys - the sea of red can be misleading but it's not skulldugery.
Dorfan et al. Absolutely agree that pgms are making some profit and chrome is making high profits. I haven't ignored them. I'm looking at the company as a whole.
JLP are (rightly) spending cash on:
Chrome expansion;
Roan expansion;
Advanced payment to part purchase waste rock project;
Advanced design and ordering of long lead items for waste rock project.
The company is not generating enough cash to cover this expenditure. Leon says so in the recent placing. The placing was specifically to fast track projects rather than wait for cash flow. The cash flow in does not exceed the cash flow out. It's 100% a fact. The placing money is being spent, it is needed to meet outgoings. Ergo JLP is cash flow negative. My POSITIVE post was that Roan will be the game changer meaning that JLP becomes cash flow positive overall. The chrome expansion will also massively help with this dorfan but is further down the line. Roan is the game changer for now. Hope that's cleared the muddy waters a little. Gave me a little rest from the gardening, Hard work on a ladder with a chainsaw - yes gotreal I'll try not to slip, I know you'd miss me.
Good points Charles 432. (Ignore the resident self appointed defenders of the faith). We are hopefully getting closer to increased copper production. Roan should turn JLP cash flow positive rather than cash flow negative (which it is) and then word will get out via the internet jungle drums even if the board communications aren't the best. News that the parts have been transported, that front end electrics have been sourced, build is underway, JLP are on target for fully ramped up production by the end of April would help. The silence becomes deafening for the shareholders who sit by their computers all day. 5 weeks to go to full production or disappointment. Signing of the waste rock deal surely getting closer, fine details take a long time so we have to be patient. Time for some gardening, the sun's shining in glorious Yorkshire.
Meanwhile:
Strong support at 5.7p looks to have succumbed. There is very very strong support at 5.1p which is reassuring for holders. The upper resistance from the long term downtrend, which the share is still in (sorry), has now dropped to 6.6p, above that and the sp will finally break out of it's long term downtrend (hooray) and, even better, the trend line is falling as each week passes and makes a break out more likely (hooray again).
In the real world, copper, chrome and pgm's firmed over past week or so (hooray no.3) which should help with the hitherto negative cash flow and time has passed in which, hopefully, something has happened re-Roan which is the game changer in terms of cash flow , can't hooray that one cos we know nowt.
Bought at 5p - sold into the rally (wasn't my intention - it just went up too far too fast on no news) which allowed the market makers chance to move the 9 million option share (nice work by them). Looking to re-enter for the long term - on balance I would happily pay 5.2p to 5.3p and ride out any bad news that comes along. GLA
We agree at last seisnav. No point trying to talk the share price to where you want it to be. It doesn't work. If it did it would be easy for everyone to make money. Honesty is the best policy. Going to check charts later now that the very strong support at 5.7p has broken.
Have to agree there dorfan - the longer than prommissed delivery on Roan and the time taken to get the deal sealed for waste rock is being mitigated by the minerals valuations rising. Helps with cash flow obviously and eases the worries. On the charts view, 6.7p is now a massive barrier to be overcome with the long term downtrend (still in place) and the 200 day moving average converging to double up the barrier.
On the plus side 5.7p is giving significant support as expected. This could be the local bottom but a few more days needed to see how it goes and to see if 5.7p holds. Have to admit to being a little nervous about being out right now as the sp is finely balanced and could go either way. Moving money into my ISA to repurchase JLP shares there for CGT purposes.
P.S. did a persistent seller drop the sp from 22p down to 4.6p? If so, would a price of 22p be justified now? Someone should find him and cut his hands off. Ooh that persistent seller, he makes my blood boil. Apologies but my sarcasm got the better of me. Sitting here chuckling to myself at the ongoing refusal to accept reality and the none stop cliche ridden theories why the sp isn't what we want it to be. It's because people value this share at under 5.7p today. This is what it's worth. The agreed price between a willing buyer and a willing seller. All the info is out there, all investors have access to it and this is the market's conclusion at this point. We are gambling that they will change their minds. That's all.
Happydays "You do know the price is P5.65. and a week ago it was P5.20?
What im.saying is that based on current metals prices today's price is ridiculous."
I hear you Happy Days, but disagree. I think 6.5p was ridiculous. Very little has changed - pgm prices have recovered a bit of what they've lost which helps with cash flow. So, personally, having paid 5p before, I would be happy to pay say 5.2p to 5.3p now. Nothing else has changed apart from some extra shares probably, we don't know, being sold into the market and JLP pocketed about £190,000 to add to the cash flow. Holders got diluted. We await Roan (fully operational at the end of April - still snap their hands off for end of May). We await sign off on waste rock project - still convinced the announcement was rushed ahead of the events to cover a placing before JLP ran out of cash. All by the by, JLP funded for now, a bit more cash coming in, a few more shares issued, Roan is still the key.
On a quick check - 35 million warrants and 23 million options outstanding (Please correct me if I'm wrong). When investing in JLP I've kept a list of dates of expiry, price and number as they materially affect the sp at the time they are exercised. Not an exact science, since they can be exercised at any time before the lapse date and as Heroic has informed us, new ones can be issued at any time without any notice given to shareholders. On the plus side they will incentivise the recipients to strive harder for the company. (Tongue firmly in cheek).
Spot on heroic - it's a mere 0.7% ok but it's another 0.7% and when they come to market the sells cause the sp to behave like you're driving the car with the handbrake on.
3 factors at play in the sp fallback IMO - straight forward profit taking (guilty), the options filling up the sell side and I believe a pump and dump element on here and SLP. The crowd arrives and then disappears again onto the next target.
5.7p has provided some support as expected. let's hope it holds there for all holders. Volume still good and some buyers getting in at 5.7p. Who knows.
Had exactly the same thoughts Ardbeggar. Left the grandkids shares in as their shares are for the long view. Sold mine at 20% profit and invested it in JPMorgan China Growth and Income. Could have got 25% as you say but I haven't the time with babysitting etc. The new investment is up 4% on my first day so can't complain. Will be back here (assuming it doesn't run away from me). 9 million shares at the recent volume will soon be absorbed, assuming the owner sells them all, they might not and assuming volume doesn't drop back significantly. Good luck whatever your strategy.
Charts - very strong performance challenged 6.7p but didn't break through this time. Took out 6p which was an impressive barrier to overcome. Once above 6.7p there are no real barriers to break IMO.. 6p may provide resistance still, thereafter it's a short term support at 5.7p from where it may resume upwards. Just above 5p would provide very strong support IMO, but hopefully 5.7p may form the base now. (p.s. would we have expected another rns for issuance of the shares? I forget what happened previously on these occasions).
Excellent post Chester Green. Lots of positives there. A nice and useful check list to have, thank you.
A slight addendum to your post Seisnav - you say that JLP get 35% to 40% of profits (which I made the mistake of using 35% as a rough average for and was branded a deramper by gotreal)), Gotreal insists it is 42% of profits (which was the very upper end of the estimate) - so please use 42% in future - we don't want you getting banned do we.
A lovely rise in the sp to within touching point of the expected 6p. All without any significant changes or announcements, all based on sentiment, which has to be a positive for JLP share price in the future - it indicates a lot of goodwill and belief in the long term future here. GLA.
Sorry Shareswotter - you are barking up the wrong tree. I post honestly, good and bad in all situations, owning or not. Just type in google and find some share copper predictions. I used the futures - what people are currently paying- i I just shared that. I bought at 5p on the nose - shall I dig out my post? My Grandkids also have some (3 of them now) - bought at 5.1p.
For some moronic reason, posters on these sites decide who is a good guy (always endlessly posting how the share is going to go up, the commodities are going to go up etc etc) and who are the bad guys - the ones taking a balanced approach and the perennial negative poster get lumped together - no downside is ever allowed.
I simply posted some information relevant to a share I own and in the minds of the serial rampers I'm playing some game. Pitiful.
On a positive - all the commodities that JLP produce are looking stronger now than they have for the past month or two. I won't let any material facts get in the way of this positive post - woohoo the train is leaving the station (add own pathetic cliches to your taste). JLP has a great future. I own some. I am not trying to talk the share down. FFS.