We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
I'm wondering the same thing.
Seeing the RNS first thing this morning, I breathed a sigh of relief; perhaps there is some hope after all. At least enough for me to put away thoughts about cutting my losses here, for now.
A few hours later, I look to the charts and it's in red.
Pray tell, what could this be?
Looking at the RNS again with my blood-tinted glasses, the only thing I see to justify a drop would be this:
"Following receipt of all the outstanding metallurgical test results, the Company is now able to validate the findings of the CPR and further engage with prospective funders towards conclusion of funding arrangements as set out above."
Reading that with a very pessimistic slant, I'd say
1) No indication of any existing progress with those claimed 14 interested parties - how many are still interested?
2) Surely by now they could/should have had conditional commitments in place?
3) No timeline. Are the funders going to invest based on the 51% recovery rate, or are they going to demand to see the figures after the process improvement to 60% (thereby more delays)?
Listening to it, I hear him lining up the delays already. They'll take months to review the information, then they'll need time to get their contractor onboard and on-site, probably figure out how to fund it all, and by then, the season will have turned and they'll miss the dry weather, causing further delays as we weather sets in.
Bottom drawer time.
Called it in December.
KaiSharp 15 Dec 2020 17:00
It's a positive update, but I can't help but think that it's not quite the light at the end of the tunnel yet.
Last month, the reports were imminent
Now, one is delivered by the other is delayed with no hint of an ETA.
As much as I want to believe we're almost there, I have to wonder what's coming next. Should the resource/reserve statements be delivered, will there be another delay while the valuation report is completed? And once that's delivered, will we suddenly discover another reason to wait - perhaps the investors will need more time to complete due diligence?
What would be really helpful is if they published a clear timeline with all the milestones between here and funding. But of course, that would be too much like accountability.
Hartlebury - "It would be just typical for me to sell today and an rns appear tomorrow!"
Would you mind taking one for the team please mate?
Jokes aside, another month goes by and not even a claim of jam tomorrow. I'm astonished, but glad, that we're somehow still holding the line at 2p.
SI, Something has been a long time coming. I too am glad that the share price has been remarkably steady, almost boring even, but sooner or later, patience will wear thin as the opportunity cost becomes increasingly expensive.
Case in point - had I stayed in CWR this time last year instead of selling it to buy KAT, I would have had 6-7 bags by now and still have a better entry price here than my initial purchase.
Could KAT achieve the same success over the next 12 months?
Could 2021 be KAT's year?
I hope so.
But I'm awfully tired of waiting while I see missed opportunities elsewhere.
Sense, the one thing in the back of my mind worrying me is that I can't think of a time I've heard anything from Briggs other than the announcement that he's joining the team.
I'd think that if statements in the RNS had his name attached to it, rather than LC, it might have a stronger positive effect.
Sense - "Watching and waiting patiently from the sidelines. By end Feb I agree this should multibag.”
I'd steer clear of statements like that, especially with targets that can be pinned on a calendar.
At least, that's what LC does.
Jdt - "Glad this is finally moving but the pace is unbelievable slow and I wish we were just told each time a realistic timeframe not led down the garden path by LC."
Exactly what I came to say. I said it last time, and it's the same thing again - another positive update with no real substance behind to use to make an informed decision. As far as I'm concerned, this RNS was an advert to gain new investors rather than an announcement to existing investors.
And honestly, while I'm still hopeful of a profitable exit here, if I was a new investor here with the knowledge I have now, I would not buy.
Smartinvestment - "That’s just not realistic in the current environment. Doing business in Africa is not straight forward at the best of times let alone when there is a raging pandemic"
Respectfully disagree with you on that first sentence. Sure, doing business in Africa comes with its challenges. But the basic principles of project management apply no matter where you operate:
Having an understanding of key activities;
The expected duration, start dates, and end dates for each activity;
Dependencies between the activities; and,
The critical path to completion
If there are delays in one stream of the project, you can immediately understand the impact on the rest of it, but you always have visibility of what's going on.
Jdt said "justifiably some PIs just clearly dont like the uncertainty of a timeline and what may have to happen before this gets over the line."
For me personally, I can tolerate the uncertainty of the timeline. I'm frustrated that it's taken this long already, but I do live on the same planet as the rest of us and I understand that nothing has gone to plan this year.
But what bothers me is the smoke and mirrors around what activities remain and the path to funding. This is why I would like to see a high level project plan that outlines the activities and dependencies to get there. The latest RNS is part of the way there in identifying that the resources/reserve statements are key to the valuation, which is key to the funding, but we need to see a holistic view and understand what else could be lurking in the shadows that they haven't told us yet.
It's a positive update, but I can't help but think that it's not quite the light at the end of the tunnel yet.
Last month, the reports were imminent
Now, one is delivered by the other is delayed with no hint of an ETA.
As much as I want to believe we're almost there, I have to wonder what's coming next. Should the resource/reserve statements be delivered, will there be another delay while the valuation report is completed? And once that's delivered, will we suddenly discover another reason to wait - perhaps the investors will need more time to complete due diligence?
What would be really helpful is if they published a clear timeline with all the milestones between here and funding. But of course, that would be too much like accountability.
Tue, 15th Dec 2020 12:25
The finalisation of a SAMREC Mineral Reserve and SAMVAL valuation of the Project can only be finalized upon receipt of all the outstanding metallurgical test results.
As was reported previously, discussions and negotiations with preferred funding entities are well advanced. The restated SAMREC Mineral Resource, an updated Mineral Resource and Mineral Reserve statement are key components / inputs to the SAMREC compliant CPR and SAMVAL valuation report, which is expected shortly following completion of the restated Mineral Resource. The SAMREC CPR and SAMVAL valuation reports are critical deliverables towards the finalisation of the funding process as elaborated on in the RNS dated 30 November 2020.
Mon, 30th Nov 2020 07:00
...the joint venture partners pushed ahead with the exploration and technical work related to the upgrade of the Blyvoor Project resource and reserve statement and delivery of an independent valuation report. The release of both these documents is imminent and forms an integral part in the final delivery of the Blyvoor funding package.
Sam, I really hope you're wrong. Purely for selfish reasons, I do not want the shares to be suspended at all - especially knowing how long M&A activity can take and that's before you account for the LC delay factor.
LC needs to deliver the goods this time, and show us what's on the table. I'm hopeful that tomorrow will be the game changer we've all been waiting for, but I'd be lying if I said I'm not apprehensive about what, if anything, will be said tomorrow.
Michael - "They can buy shares at 2.6p wherever the market price is. 50% of the options can be exercised from today and 50% expire in one year. "
Minor correction: 50% can be exercised immediately, and the other 50% can be exercised in one year, but the options are valid for 7 years.
Destitute - "I see 10p being very realistic before xmas."
Bluntly, I'm hoping to benefit from a twitter ramping brigade on news of the deal being signed. I've seen 10x done in a day, so once this goes through and all the pieces fall into place, I don't think a 5x ramp is too much to ask for.
Come on twitter, don't let me down.
You know what makes a nice change for me?
Being invested in a company that is actively trying to hype itself up.
Sure, it's not the best run campaign the world has ever seen, nor is it proving to be extremely effective, but the fact that they're trying and they're putting out content regularly to keep eyes on them is appreciated.
Closing bid/ask at 2.00/2.20 on HL. If memory serves me right, that's almost exactly where we were last week before the delay RNS. I expect there will continue to be resistance around the 2 - 2.25 range because of placing sellers, plus the warrants at 2p as well, but all that will mean nothing once the funding is sorted.
So after today's surprisingly strengthening bid, I went back to the RNS to take another look.
1) The Company is pleased to announce that the JV partners have agreed a strategy and associated deadlines for securing Project financing
> This is good. They've reviewed all the options that they had in front of them and figured out what route they want to take, and how long it's going to take to get it sorted.
2) Katoro will look to complete the Project Financing on or before 30 September 2020, which will be sufficient to fund the construction and commissioning of a Beneficiation Plant and auxiliary operations.
> This is good. They were looking to raise around $11m USD to get to 120,000tpm capacity, and it sounds like they'll get it.
> Even better is the "will be sufficient to fund". In previous extensions, they simply extended the deadline. This time, they're saying this is enough time, with certainty that was absent previously
3) With this revised timeframe the JV Partners believe there is sufficient time to duly entertain and properly consider preferred funding options/proposals from the potential funders they have received interest from
> This is excellent. We knew that they wanted to create a shortlist from those 14. Now they've picked the strategy (point 1), they've narrowed that list of 14 down to the preferred ones which align with that strategy.
4) The impact of COVID-19 however remains a harsh reality and it will continue to influence the pace and manner in which we can meet agreed deadlines
> This is bad. It's a CYA statement, but the vagueness of it does feel like a get out of jail free card if it slips again.
5) we recognized that many investors wanted some clarity as to Katoro's exclusivity position after the expiry of the June 2020 project level funding deadline ... we have agreed a formal extension to 30 September 2020 which we trust will address concerns investors may have with the security of our position in the Blyvoor JV.
> This is good. If investors were worried about Katoro's position in the JV, that says to me they're serious about putting their money in and wanted reassurance that it's secure. Now, if I was in LC's place, I'd extend that deadline beyond what it needs to be to provide additional reassurance.
Summary:
Funding is progressing - slower than anticipated, but it is moving forward. They now have a shortlist of providers who offer a particular form of funding which KAT and Blyvoor have agreed is the most beneficial strategy and conversations with them are progressing. The deadline was pushed back to September for two reasons: firstly to allow additional time to complete the funding process, and secondly to reassure that Blyvoor isn't going to pull the rug out from under KAT's feet now they're getting close. I suspect 30 September is a pessimistic deadline designed to ensure that they aren't cutting it close again.
In with 500k shares, and keeping some powder dry to top up on good news.