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It's hit 12-14p previously on speculation of test results, prior to massive dilution.
The way I see it, we've had over 100% dilution, so to reach roughly the same market cap as we had back then, it's around 5-6p. (disclaimer: these aren't even 'back of a fag packet' numbers, they're just rough estimations)
My hope is that, should this recover, it would be on the basis of a project going forward which will generate revenue. And if that happens, we may exceed the previous mcap highs. Given how dramatically this one swings, if it overshoots to 7-8p, I'll say an extra prayer of gratitude right after I hit the sell button.
Risk to reward profile. If the RNS isn't good news, this is going to the cleaners.
Sure, this company is a total punt for me so I'd only put in a few hundred quid that I could afford to write off, but in my efforts to practice discipline and capital preservation, I'd rather miss the first half of the rise than catch the first half of the fall.
Oh good lord, I've just realised my mistake. 27m is the total voting rights, not what arrowgrass was holding. I should have just gone to bed.
Sorry folks. Where's that delete post button gone?
*seemingly suppressed
Found this stock through the twitter ramping group.
Here's what I'm seeing:
The company is fundamentally is doing well; revenues are growing rapidly and their cost base should remain steady, potentially even reducing. A cursory glance at the unaudited half year results from last september suggest they're not too far from turning a net profit if they continue to grow at this sort of pace. Right now, the market cap is below the gross revenues generated by the business. That doesn't tell us a great deal, give that EPS is still negative, but it shows room for upward growth.
The twitter ramping brigade:
The message is clear - "the share price is seemingly by the overhang from the departure of Arrowgrass. The volume has suddenly shot up, it's almost cleared, the price is about to skyrocket back to the 50p range"
It makes sense. It's an attractive pitch. It's enticing. An easy 150% profit for someone getting in at the right time.
I was tempted enough to do my research.
The Arrowgrass TR1 showed they divested a little less than 27m shares.
TOTAL volume of all trades since 7th November 2019: just over 12m shares.
I do agree, there's an opportunity to make money here. But unless someone can explain to me where the other 15m shares have gone which would suggest we're getting close to the end of this overhang, I'm not convinced we're in the clear yet.
For now, I'm staying on the sidelines and watching with interest. Good luck to all invested.
I'm sure those ten years feels like ten lifetimes.
On absolutely nothing but hope, I'm looking to see 5-6p by late April, at which point I will likely sell my shares and go buy a house. Anything above, or earlier, is a welcome bonus.
Could not have put it better myself GeordieShores. While the upside is attractive, the fall from 147 last year has taught me a thing about capital preservation. I'm ready to buy on a recovery, but I'm not about to try to catch a falling knife.
Do I think the price will reach 100p again? Absolutely yes.
Am I willing to put my money in right now as we sit on support, against the market as a whole, while there's a crazed monkey in the castle? Heck no.
Updated version of the chart I posted last week: https://www.tradingview.com/x/huExdEoy/
We're sitting on the channel trend, with a fib retracement at 76.
I'd rather miss the first 5-10p of the rise back to 100p, than catch the first 5p of a possible fall below 76p.
In before one of the serial whining club tells you we will need $87 just to hold 82p
Got out at 85.7 as soon as the figures came out. Got something like 2-3% from it. Not the 7-20% I was hoping for, but better than a loss.
Will be very curious to see if 82p holds again tomorrow, but I doubt it.
I'll be looking for a re-entry before Zama news around 76 if we get there.
GTLD - "I take no notice of API or EIA 'figures' simply because there is no correlation between them and POO"
Mate... did you see last week's EIA figures?
Have a look at Brent futures, June contract, 22nd May at 15:30 and then try to repeat that statement.
TCF - While there are retracements to 76 and 66, my money is on 89/100 being the more likely direction.
Brent took a beating this morning, and PMO typically exaggerates Brent's downwards movements. However, the 82p support has held (so far) even as Brent slipped below 67 earlier this afternoon. I was worried for a moment as we dipped into 81, but only for a few moments before buyers came back in and delivered a (admittedly lacklustre) rejection.
As for geopolitical events - I've put my money on either the US/China situation improving, or supply risks worsening. While nobody benefits from a spike in POO, I feel Brent is trading at a discount below $70.
As Peltalta pointed out, DJT has an election coming up. As far as I'm concerned, that means China and SA have his balls in a vice - he just doesn't know it yet. A trade war that hurts the American voters, and high oil prices isn't a good look for him, while China and SA have the power to deliver that pain to him if they wish to do so. Not without harm to themselves too, that goes without saying, but neither of them are worried about an electorate to impress.