Member Info for Kaberlaba

@maninbag using the 350 list is smart. I always did it the long-handed way, looking at the (bottom of the) FTSE100 list and comparing with the (top of the) FTSE250 list, but now I know better! Looking at those lists, it's an interesting (worrying?) observation that the UK Government (i.e. the taxpayer) is spliffing £102.7bn on HS2, which would buy up outright the 5th largest company in the FTSE100 (British American Tobacco), or almost half of the two largest (HSBC and AstraZeneca)! Any of those three would have been a better investment for the taxpayer!

@laidback I concur your assessment. This morning we have the news "No Deal", and that was only to agree a "Memorandum of Understanding", i.e., an agreement to work towards a deal to end the conflict. This end of this conflict appears as far away as ever. Many producers are practicing capital discipline and are reluctant to increase oil production due to price uncertainty (although in the USA more rigs are being activated, production in bpd is barely changed). And demand outstrips supply. So despite the hefty fall in oil prices last week, my feeling is that it will rise back above $100. The winners will be the companies that can get their oil to market. I'd like to think HBR is well placed to capitalise on this, given the geographic locations far from SoH.

89 ships (not all tankers, I assume) isn't a lot when inventories/reserves are plummeting at the current rate. Need a sustained 30 tankers a day through SoH to meet demand. Our "friends" at GS spent last week talking oil down, today they are hyping it up https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Sounds-Fresh-Alarm-on-Global-Oil-Stockpiles.html .

@Property1 That list does indeed list the most valuable companies BUT i think it ignores WHERE they are listed. So ARM Holdings is 4th in that list, BUT it's listed on the NASDAQ, and hence ineligible for inclusion in the FTSE 100. There are a few others, so we are higher in the FTSE listings than might appear from this list.

@Property1 The LSE lists to compare are here: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-250/constituents/table and here: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/indices/ftse-100/constituents/table . Updated at the end of each trading day.

As of last night HBR is marginally above ITH and sitting at the top of the FTSE 250. Valuations on these two are so close these places can, and do swap around at the whim of the daily share prices. HBR at 4.752bn puts us just below KGF who are currently 81th in FTSE 100. So HBR is currently 82nd, and @Sekforde is correct.

@Nacho99 that's the kind of t/o premium I'd be looking for ... i.e. north of 410p for HBR. I'm prepared to wait it out.

@MiHK Has any Labour government ever "face[d] economic reality"? There seems to be two strategies: "Tax the Rich/Billionaires" and "Tax Business, especially those that are price-gouging 'hard-working families' ". A thirty-second, back-of-envelope calculation would reveal that "Tax the Rich" will never provide much towards the £1.2 TRILLION (IFS data, soon to be £1.4 TRILLION according to OBR) that Govt spends each year. So that only leaves UK business to take the hit. And when Labour makes a hard left turn, it'll just get worse.

Is it at all conceivable that the companies with big HBR holdings might change their strategy and decide to keep their holdings? Or are they committed to offloading their holdings? A lot has changed in the world in the last few weeks...

@clued Unfortunately oil companies ARE cast as the villains as @Sekforde suggests. It's "convenient" for politicians and activists. This today on BBC: "Once again, fossil fuel giants are pocketing monstrous profits while drivers are being squeezed at the petrol pump and households are set to pay higher energy bills. The answer is clear: strengthen the windfall tax on these indefensible profits" when it could/should read "Once again, the UK treasury is pocketing monstrous taxes".

Nice finish to end the week ... at last moving in the right direction instead of treading water.

Strong rise today for no apparent reason?

(Two weeks since Stifel uprated)

@bestintown Just catching up with similar companies IMO. Last 12 months price graph is now almost identical to VOLEX (VLX.L), who is also benefitting strongly from the Data Centres mentioned by @Break100 . Very closely correlated Apr-Jun 2025, XPP then lagged for the next 7 months, then close correlation starts again from early Feb 2026 after the mid-to-late-January XPP price surge.

DIVI.L is (subject to shareholder approval) going to be liquidated soon. If I take the cash option will I be paid out at the share price or the NAV? It's not clear to me in the documentation ~ just talks about paying out 100%.

"If anything they'll increase it". Almost certainly. It was 25% to 2025, then became 38% to 2030. They've this month hiked the electricity generator levy to 55%, at the same time telling us we've all got to "go electric". HBR's effective NS tax rate is >100%. Despite telling the voting public that these O&G companies are ripping of the consumer/hard-working-family, it's the Goverment/Treasury that's gaining most/taking all(?). Time we packed our bags and went elsewhere entirely IMO.

Large end-of-day crossing trades cause big price fluctuations. Probably big institutional investors at play.

For me, I'd rather HBR continue on it's current path and avoid any M&A. We've had more than a decade of instability, and I feel we've at last got our bearings and the future looks bright. All too often M&A turn out bad, esp. in O&G. Just look at the John Wood / Amec Foster Wheeler fiasco.

Highest I paid was (effectively) £66.26 in 2013.

Bit of a sore point there.

Lowest I paid was £1.94 (2025).

Still a buyer - topped up today £2.89.

It'll all work out in the end!

@bonker99 ... and Brent spiked back above $100 in last 10 minutes.

Offer is well below value. I've traded AMS regularly since 2013 and seen it fluctuate a lot. Last batch I sold (but subsequently repurchased) was sold at 325p in 2017. Add almost a decade of inflation to that and 440p is closer to the mark.

I don't see EPL disappearing anytime soon. Unfortunately, the politicians control the narrative when it comes to NS drilling. They will continue with EPL (and even raise it) because, in the eyes of the public, these oil companies are currently "raking it in" and "lining their pockets" at the peoples expense, and hammering oil companies some more would be a "vote winner".