RE: Predictions15 Mar 2021 20:04
I think the US is in late cycle and have a forward pe ratio in the 30s last time I looked whereas the uk is about 13 (which is relatively very cheap)
But the US have decided to respond by not only printing money but massive government spending at the same time. So I can't see their markets crashing at all, although seemingly expensive they are happy to put trillions of dollars underneath them. This will continue imo and there is no other way out for them other than under pin the lot with printed money. In this scenario the biggest risk is not their stock market but their currency crashing imo. They'll create tonnes of cash which will fly into stocks and commodities, some of it will get put in the UK and Europe.
The biggest risk imo is holding too much cash and hoping the prices of things come back down, which many make the mistake of only to observe asset price inflation year after year, decade after decade.
The dot com bubble also had huge amounts of stocks with billion dollar valuations that the nasdaq was full of. Now they have real companies that genuinely have enormous revenues. So I don't see the comparison. This company for example has a £50m cap with £13m in cash and some very clever people behind it. I don't think any of them are there for a quick buck and are only just getting started...