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Much as Mark Childs might seem a very nice sort of chap, I would hardly cite Condor as an acceptable model for any gold mine.
They had the old Russian reserves as a starting point (3 million oz. from recollection) and in 20221 still do not have a producing mine.
Meanwhile, HUM took over Yanfolila in 2016, got on and built a mine and have will have 3 years of production under their belt by Mar 2021 and the debt finance fully paid off.
The problem with Guinea is that there has been an election between June 2020 and now and that will have been somewhat disruptive. Much as I don't really like Flopsy, overall they are quite a proactive team and do collectively have some "notches on the belt" for Liberia and Mali and Guinea is WIP.
I had a quick look and according to AG short % of free float was at 23.3% with 3% having bailed.
FRES should also be good for the game.
Well, apparently, Elon Musk joined in that hunt by tweeting on it and no doubt, after all the shorting of Tesla (rightly or wrongly) that will have been a sweet moment.
They will need some muscle to go after silver itself (either paper or physical) , but they could cause damage on the silver stocks such as FRES and HOC. At one stage at the back end of 2018/early 2019, the FRES short position was over 20% and was a sitting duck for a well organised gang.
The advantage of doing it on decent producing stocks rather than rubbish such as Gamestock is that if it goes wrong, they are left with an asset with value (unless being done on margin).
Thanks Bangrak: so a week or so away.
It makes perfect sense issuing the Q4 and 2021 guidance together and to have that 2021 guidance backed up by an actual figure for January will give it far more credibility. I am expecting that we will now have a couple of good Qs on the high grade and that they will plan better for the wet season (ie stockpile high grade for blending).
Gold certainly schizophrenic at the moment, but looks as if Yellen will join other countries in stopping the onward march of Bitcoin: the surprise is that governments around the world have allowed it to get any traction.
More than all of the gain in gold and silver have NOT been "eaten up", when comparing 2021 projected against 2019 actual.
2019
477k oz gold equivalent x $369 margin = 176 million (av. gold $1414 and AISC of $1045 per 2019 accounts = $369 margin)
2021
366k oz gold equivalent x $620 margin = 226 million (av gold at $1850 and AISC of $1230 "guesstimates" for 2021
So, despite the projected reduction in oz.. produced, we can look forward to an extra $50 million for 2021 on current price of metals (and as silver has outperformed gold over the period, that figure is an understatement).
Sotolo
I don't find your posting particularly enlightening and much of the sniping at the company is wholly unjustified.
This is certainly NOT a highly geared company, since the Balance Sheet is largely equity financed. In respect of the medium term loan of $199 million, it is part of well managed financing at an extra ordinarily low rate of interest and not due for repayment in the short term and it has enable the company to invest in an interesting suite of assets, including the cash purchase of the rare earths opportunity for $56 million.
The expectation for Q4 is that it will be respectably dull, since it was confirmed relatively late in the quarter that the operations were on course for meeting the revised guidance.
It may be too early for significant exploration results, since this component was delayed in H1 and that has consequences for AISC as well as resource/reserve updates (despite your assertions to the contrary, brownfield exploration, if done, is included in AISC and a detailed reconciliation is provided in the financials). In H1 we were told that AISC looked better, as costs including exploration, were deferred due to Covid. I think it is unlikely that the annual program was squeezed into 6 months, but that is idle speculation on my part.
On Covid, I would expect that many of these multinationals will vaccinate their staff as winter approaches.
We can all speculate on the reason(s) why the chairman sold a quarter of his shares, but the guidance for 2021 (all key aspects as set out in the dividend RNS) was encouraging: if PMs stick around at these levels, it should be a profitable year ahead and the rare earth project is a good reason to keep an eye on this company.
GLA
RP
Using Q3 figures is probably somewhat conservative.
We know that San Jose is not good for this Q4, but were told relatively recently that they would still meet the revised annual guidance despite San Jose.
"The Company remains on track to meet its revised full year guidance of between 280,000-290,000 gold equivalent ounces or 24.0-25.0 million silver equivalent ounces".
Looking at the guidance midpoint. that means 89K oz gold equivalent in Q4 as opposed to 68k in Q3.
I anticipate
Q4 turnover up on Q3
H2 turnover significantly up on H1
AISC to be much higher for H2 as they deferred the aggressive exploration program from H1 to H2 ( but if they have some decent results, it will be that which adds the ongoing value to the company).
It will be interesting to see the FS for the rare earth project ,as that is an interesting diversification
It is unlikely that Q4 results will be released until management have finalized the plan for the current year.
The current SP reflects the 3 low grade Qs, including Q4 which is already known to be poor. They had only produced 14k oz for 2 months and even if December is 10k oz, it still only makes 24k oz for the Q and that has the inevitable consequences for AISC, as a large proportion of costs are fixed.
It would mitigate concerns, if there were actual figures for December and January, demonstrating that the corner has been turned and we are back into high grade production. That, coupled with updated reserves and resources and a longer LOM and an attractive 2021 budget is what is needed to get the Yanfolila potential in the SP.
Dugbe is entirely down to Stalker and he will have to deliver, if he wants the next Pasofino raise to be value adding for his existing core shareholders.
We were promised an update on Kouroussa early in the new year and I do hope that it includes news on the licence.
This has only been in production for 11 Quarters (Q1 of 2018 was commissioning).
Within that period, there have been some good Qs (there was a run of 3 excellent Qs to Q1 of 2020) and despite the last 3 Qs processing low grade stockpile, HUM has managed to pay debt down on schedule and maintain its credit rating.
If, as management say, they are now mining high grade again, we should have a couple of good Qs. That facilitates more exploration and better mine planning going forward, including stockpiling of higher grade for the wet season.
Sometimes, it is forgotten that there were ongoing consequences from that early set back with the pit wall: the company struggled for survival (was priced to go bust/have a heavily discounted placing in mid 2019) and that affected planned exploration, building stockpiles of higher grade to blend in the wet season and even the level of consumables which could be carried.
Hopefully, that is now behind us and we now have a fat cash cow period ahead for Yanfolila and good news on other projects.
Thanks for sharing that, Tones: I was wondering when we would get results from that first drilling campaign.
Presumably, the >$1 billion NPV for Dugbe is on existing resources, but at current POG and with the projected savings on power (HUM had it at a third of that for the "best" case scenario at $1500 POG)?
My point is that the PI can determine their own destiny on HUM, because this is mostly in their hands (unlike AMER, where a simple majority was held by the BOD and major shareholders such as Jeremy Collier(Michinoko)).
In these circumstances, PIs should look out for themselves. (Just to demonstrate that point, SOLG PIs recently produced a complete turnup for the books, by voting for NM and derailing the "big boys' plan to steal the company on the cheap via dilution. It might have been a Pyrrhic victory, but on the other hand, it might just prize a decent offer out of BHP or Newcrest).
GIven that HUM is currently a steal, most sensible shareholders would take the trouble to vote against any silly offer and I would set that at the £200 million, giving an SP which lines up with our current broker forecasts.
Above that, it is hard to judge what the PI response would be: most usually take a decent uplift, seeing it in % terms, rather than the company's ultimate potential: very much a "bird in the hand"philosophy.
I don't understand your comment, Sands.
At the end of the day, all shareholders get a vote and in this case, the Betts family do not hold enough shares to determine the outcome of any such vote and nor do our major shareholders, Ruffer and Sustainable Capital.
In any bid, the role of the BOD is to accept or reject or negotiate the terms. If they accept, shareholders can vote no and if a rejected bid goes hostile, it is again down to the shareholders.
The brutal truth is that PIs generally do not vote, whereas the IIs are geared up to do so (and have usually been "sounded out").
If Dugbe comes good and this fails to re rate accordingly, it will get taken out and possibly by Pasofino: Stalker looks like an opportunist. That might be where there is an unfair monetary advantage, since management did appear to get in on the ARX band wagon, but I am not sure what % they now have in Pasofino post financing dilution and it is not disclosed and therefore likely to be insignificant .
As it stands, it would have to be £200 million to put it in touch with its peer group (ie SHG at £184 million currently) and that would be 56p per share and an uplift of over 50% from here.
With good news on Yanfolila LOM, Kouroussa signed or Dugbe, giving a better SP base, then perhaps 75p: Dugbe is the elephant in the room and that could really surprise to the upside, including attracting Canadian interest and they generally give a better valuation.
One of oddities here is that there is little institutional holding (it is wrong to include nominee holdings in any such calculation) and that might make it difficult for any potential suitor to test the waters.
Interesting times and POG might just do the "heavy lifting".
For your information, Ken, the Coris loan was fixed term and was always scheduled to end in H2. Early repayment attracts a penalty and so there is no benefit to the company to do this.
Guidance was always 110,000 -125,000 oz for the year and so your post is misleading.
Whilst I am no fan of Flopsy, the overall HUM proposition is without a doubt, a compelling investment at this SP.
Whilst NM does have the right to issue significant numbers of shares, they have to be offered first to existing shareholders and that includes BHP and Newcrest: that is the consequence of the withdrawn resolutions.
This is of fundamental importance in predicting what happens next.
The irony is that there are multiple financing options for Cascabel, but no easy routes away from the big boys for exploration.
I think you might be confusing Carlos Estevez and Ashwath Mehra, Brock. Estevez was an absolute nightmare for EMED, but Trafigura seemed to"find a way round him" to get Junta co operation. Mehra just wants his money. What a pool of sharks and so different from AL, who only wants to get on with his giant meccano set and make it work better and better.
Update on Estevez
"The former director of the company Minas de Riotinto, Carlos Estévez , has been imprisoned because of one of the sentences that was recently imposed on him in relation to his management in the company and for which he was imposed the amount of one year and three months in prison.
According to the Diario de Sevilla , this sentence is imposed because whoever was responsible for the company made "no effort" to make the payment of 320,127 euros as compensation to a Swiss company called Shorthorn Limited and dedicated to global brokerage in the sale of minerals.
Said compensation, as explained in the judgment, would correspond to the need to justify " false invoices " to companies with which it had not maintained any type of commercial relationship or did not directly exist.
Carlos Estévez is one of the key figures of mining in the area. He was the first general director of Mines of the Junta de Andalucía, president of the National Innovation Company (1990–93), director of Minas de Riotinto (MRT) in two periods (1995–1998 and 2001–2003) and member of its liquidation commission, promoter of the birth of the Nerva waste deposit, businessman and advisor to several companies, which in recent years collects lawsuits and complaints".
Hi TBTT
It relates to the acquisition of the remaining 49% of the Rio Tinto project back in 2008.
"AIM: EMED 1 October 2008
RESTRUCTURE OF RIO TINTO PROJECT ACQUISITION ARRANGEMENTS
EMED Mining Public Limited ("EMED Mining" or "the Company") announces that it and its subsidiaries (the "EMED Group") have entered into various arrangements with international metals marketer and trader MRI Group (as defined below) in relation to the ownership and acquisition structure of Proyecto Rio Tinto ("the Rio Tinto Mine").
Notably, as part of the arrangements with the MRI Group, EMED Mining has completed the acquisition of the remaining 49 per cent of EMED Tartessus SL ("EMED Tartessus"), the owner of the Rio Tinto Mine."
It was a deferred payment agreement to MRI plus marketing rights.
MRI group morphed into Astor and there appears to be some vendetta between the boss, Ashwath Mehra and Trafigura, who got part off take rights and is a major ATYM shareholder. " Both are major commodity traders and the respective bosses were both Zug residents at some stage.
Profit distribution is limited until Astor has been paid, but up until now, all money has been reinvested in expansion. That looks to be largely complete, apart from solar power and cathode production.
It will have to be paid and has been provided for in the accounts, but in the meantime, ATYM has enjoyed the use of Astors money.
ATYM really well run by AL, a super confident and competent mining engineer, with good financial skills and a really decent, straightforward man: in many ways, a good comparison with Ian Stalker(of whom I have high hopes at HUM) hope
They announced an increased 2020 brownfield exploration budget of $37 million with greenfield budget at $9 million
Per Q3 update
§ H2 2020 exploration programme started with main results expected in Q4 2020
§ Drilling campaigns ongoing at all three current operations as well as at Arcata and Crespo
There are the first specific results in the Q3 with notes on expected Q4 progress.
Dark Knight, you are right: as per the interims, plenty happening on the exploration front and the rare earths looks interesting.
Exploration
Whilst the 2020 brownfield programme has now restarted, almost three months of the schedule were deferred due to the crisis. However, we have now been able to reconfigure the programme and have an ambitious 6 month plan in place which includes a mix of surface and underground drilling in the surrounding areas of all three of our current mines. Our objectives in terms of upgrading our current resource base and discovering new potential resources remain intact and we will report on progress at the end of the final two quarters of the year. Our brownfield team also has plans to drill further afield in Peru: at the Corina zone to the north of Selene; at Palca and Cochaloma near to Pallancata; at Selene itself; and at Ares, Arcata and Crespo on the east side of Hochschild's Southern Peru Cluster.
Our greenfield programme has also been impacted but we have recently seen encouraging progress from Snip in British Columbia where our partner Skeena Resources has achieved a maiden resource for the deposit. We look forward to results from the project's second drilling campaign which has now started. Furthermore, third-party exploration work is also due to begin in the United States at the Illipah and Horsethief projects in Nevada, as well as Adamera in Washington state, both subject to the quarantine being lifted.
In Chile, work on our BioLantanidos rare earths project has progressed well notwithstanding a few minor delays resulting from the impact of the Covid-19 crisis in the country. We now have key management personnel in place and are advancing the various work streams including: updating the resource model; progressing the project's permitting; carrying out metallurgical tests and equipment piloting; and completing the plan to engage with the surrounding communities. We remain on track to deliver a feasibility study in the first quarter of 2021.
Of course, I should have added Dugbe in any list of near term SP drivers.
Interestingly, for his first drilling, Stalker has gone for a new target to the east of the two existing resources and results due this month, with planned follow on drilling at both Dugbe F and Tuzon in Q1/2021.
TORONTO, ONTARIO – 18th November 2020 – Pasofino Gold Limited (“Pasofino” the “Company”) (TSXV:VEIN;
FSE:N07) is pleased to announce it has started its drill program on the drill-ready Tiehnpo target
on the Dugbe Gold Project, Liberia within which the Company has an earn-in option for a 49% economic
interest into the Project (prior to the issuance of the Government of Liberia's 10% carried interest) once
feasibility studies and exploration commitments have been met.
Highlights
? Drilling starts on the multiple gold anomaly Tiehnpo target
? Target consists of four anomalous trends over three kilometers along strike
? Nine holes planned for ~1200m to test trenched gold anomalies
? Initial results expected to be available before the end of December 2020
? Team mobilized quickly and without delay to the target site
? Follow on drilling at both Dugbe F and Tuzon is planned for Q1/2021