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So, the takeover rumour starting again and HUM at a ridiculously low mc.
Majors are not usually interested in small mines, but Dugbe is of course, in quite a different league and with Ian Stalker in charge, it has credibility.
Kourroussa also looks capable of significant expansion and the grades are really attractive .
China having another go at crypto: hardly surprising given their current power shortages and proposed digital yuan which they can control, all dressed as carbon emission targets.
"CNN — Chinese authorities are ramping up a crackdown on crypto mining, calling it an "extremely harmful" practice that threatens to jeopardize the country's efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
The National Development and Reform Commission spokesperson Meng Wei blasted bitcoin mining during a press conference Tuesday in Beijing. She said that activity "consumes lots of energy" and "produces lots of carbon emissions."
Meng said that the NDRC — the country's top economic planner — will launch a "full-scale" clampdown on cryptocurrency mining by focusing on commercial mining and the role of state-owned businesses in the industry. She also said that crypto production and trade produces "prominent risks," and blasted the industry as "blind and disorderly."
As part of its new push, the NDRC said it would raise electricity prices for any institution found to be abusing its access to subsidized power to participate in crypto mining. Authorities have traditionally offered schools, community centers, or other public welfare institutions lower prices for electricity".
My understanding was that it was a different point which affected gold.
I have a dim recollection that the status of gold was changed so that it will be counted as a tier 1 asset ie it becomes the same as cash: previously, it was not deemed to be sufficiently liquid.
If my recollection is right, then there is a greater incentive in moving to gold for stress testing purposes and it was that which underpinned the steady rise in POG over recent years, as it was announced some time ago.
Playboy
Its Ruffer (who hold over 5%), the lock up shares (part of Asian and Alwara holdings) and directors holdings. The Mali govt share does not count as that is held in the subsidiary company and not at group level.
The rules as set out by the FCA are as follows
(4) For the purposes of paragraphs (1), (2) and (3), shares are not held in public hands if they are:
(a) held, directly or indirectly by:
(i) a director of the applicant or of any of its subsidiary undertakings; or
(ii) a person connected with a director of the applicant or of any of its subsidiary undertakings; or
(iii) the trustees of any employees' share scheme or pension fund established for the benefit of any directors and employees of the applicant and its subsidiary undertakings; or
(iv) any person who under any agreement has a right to nominate a person to the board of directors of the applicant;
or
(v) any person or persons in the same group or persons acting in concert who have an interest in 5% or more of the shares of the relevant class; or
(b) subject to a lock-up period of more than 180 days.
Interesting article courtesy of of Dick Bush on ADVFN
Effectively reductions in western EFTs and increases in Asian.
India looking at physical gold again ahead of the festival (last year little appetite) and China accumulating. The question for me is when the smart money in China swings significant wealth out of property into gold?
https://www.globalminingreview.com/special-reports/09112021/outflows-from-gold-etfs-accelerate-in-october/
Swampy
You need to read the figures more carefully.
Ore processed in Q3 was the worst in all six quarters: had they throughput 392 000 tonnes in this Q3, as they did in Q2, and at 2.27, that would have produced 26,000 oz which would have been brilliant (and brought down the AISC significantly too)
What is wholly missing from the narrative in the RNS is the explanation as to why the contractor has mined 120,000 tonnes of additional material in Q2 and Q3 which has not been processed. My expectation was that the Q2 material was to help keep them going through the rainy season, but instead of using it up, they have added to the stockpile
What has gone wrong with the scheduling/mine plan.
What investors needed to know in that RNS is an explanation of the figures and the detailed remedy in Q4. If they are mining oxides, where are they from, what is the grade and how does that add up to 31,000 oz to meet lower end guidance. We have, of course, had many Qs exceeding 30,000 oz (eg Q2/18 33,101 and three solid Qs over 30,000oz. from 2019 to Q1 1/20, including one at 33,892 oz) so it is entirely possible, but we need to know what they are doing and it should have been by RNS
This incompetence which continually trashes the share price needs proper scrutiny: much of it is so easily avoidable.
Anon
VAT payments of ~US$5.6 million and working capital movements
As well as paying the VAT, they may have paid down other creditor: we don't have the full working capital picture on the quarterlies. There are also overheads to pay and Kourroussa costs (apart from the drilling) will also have been incurred, given the progress they have made on that as per prior RNS.
It is the plant processing which is significantly down.
They do not appear to have processed the ore which was mined in the Q.
Presumably, that is now available to process, along with what they mine in Q4?
An RNS which raising more questions than answers
China dumping US treasuries has to be part of a more inwardly looking China.
Always difficult to know what is really going on there, but everything seems to point to a movement back from rampant capitalism to a more communist doctrine, where the people share in the benefits generated by capitalism. In property, that means housing for people to live in and not as an investment: now the housing has been built, the developers can go bust (with relief from the fall out targeted at workers and buyers). Any growth (apparently it is falling off a cliff) is anticipated to be to satisfy the Chinese consumer market and so manipulating their currency lower may no longer be a priority for the Chinese. Perhaps a multiple whammy for the west if all aspects of that play out.
I cannot see govts. allowing bitcoin to become mainstream: either it will be banned or controlled and the form of the latter is unknown.
So many uncertainties and inflation rampant: all good for gold
The key here is the number of ozs. produced: inverse correlation to AISC due to the high fixed proportion of costs.
H2 said to be back into better grades, which broadly translates to more ozs from the same tonnage of mining and mill throughput.
BP
The financing today is brilliant news, given the recent coup: I had expected a delay and that minor works to satisfy the MLA 12 month criteria would be made out of cash flow. Obviously Coris, as an African bank take a much more pragmatic view of the recent events in Guinea and Mali and so HUM is now full steam ahead.
I feel sorry for any LTH who cracked at the bottom: this should never have gone below 25p and the Kourroussa MLA and financing should have taken it back to 30p.
Still under 100 million market cap, even at 25p.
Blackrock make mistakes.
Forget just an egg: Blackrock's funds in China have got the whole omelette on their face, think Evergrande (and that is just the tip of the Chinese property iceberg)
Relevant to HUM as it will, in due course, be a driver of POG.
The article was from a couple of weeks ago and there are no reports of further follow up attacks, which would suggest that the upgrading of security to the mines is successful.
It was an interesting article, because the important point is that mining is a key part of the Mali economy and that is why it is protected by government forces.
Having a military man in charge (and Goita was involved in attacking the jihadists) greatly enhances the prospect of curbing such action and playing off the French against the Russians shows political savvy.
What will make it hard for jihadists is if greater unity can be achieved: the jihadists have always exploited factions and that is the problem in the north: herdsmen versus farmers with increasing aridity creating economic pressure.
On the wider political front, it is possible that some of these displaced jihadists (many from Libya) will gravitate back to the newly created haven in Afghanistan
There is clarity in both Mali and Guinea.
Whilst the international community. AU and ECOWAS site on the sidelines tut tut tutting, Goita and Doumbouya just get on with business as usual.
France has the most input and it may feel the need to reassert international muscle given the recent AUKUS debacle.
In some ways, it may be better if Mali tackles the problem without the old colonial power as that in itself causes some of the division and what both Goita and Doumbouya are looking for is unity (particularly bad for Jihadists who have exploited factors.
As an aside, apparently,the coup leaders are enjoying the increased revenue in Guinea resulting from the hike in market bauxite prices as a result of the coup.
Every article that I am reading underlines the importance of mining revenue to both countries and the determination to ecourage investment and bring new projects on line (including end process smelting for the bauxite). That, of course, is supported by the HUM experience where the Kouroussa MDA requires a start in 12 months ie next year.
Al Jazeera always worth a look for level headed commentary on Africa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l03hgeAtQlk
RTN
It shows the weakness of the ECOWAS position overall to take any effective action, particularly where 2 countries out of the 15 are on the same path.
It is NOT economic sanctions against the countries, but just against the individuals.
"Regional heads of state decided to freeze the financial assets and impose travel bans on Guinea’s military leaders and their relatives"
The main effect of such a limited response will be to stop visits by the coup leaders to the other ECOWAS countries who might be planning to follow suit with a bit of assistance ( Cote D'Ivorie being the obvious next place for a coup) .
Guinea, of course, is not land locked and could be of great assistance to Mali, if any stronger action was to be imposed, but the ECOWAS reaction to Goita's second coup showed it to be a wholly toothless organisation: an African talking shop for old men: they did not have the guts to reimpose sanctions on Goita in Mali and that will have emboldened Doumbouya in Guinea.
It has to be remembered that both Goita and Doumbouya are talking the same book: governments of unity and currently both have popular support: that support will continue if they can build economic prosperity and both countries rely on the mining industries, hence all the assurances being given to the miners.
The Islamisc extremism has been ongoing since the west destabilized Libya and terrorists fled south.
Since Goita took charge, there has been no marked increase in the relatively isolated incidents in the sparsely populated north and no further report of protests in the capital.
Western leaders, particularly Macron, seem to be unable to grasp that it is time for change and that they need to engage with these new leaders who have overthrown corrupt, undemocratic governments.
Stockpiles of unprocessed ore and tailings storage are different.
Stockpiles are made for all sorts of reasons: in HUM's case initially, it was to have ore to feed the mine at start up and subsequently, it has been to feed the plant when it is too wet to mine as efficiently (wet season) and theoretically for blending. Those are unprocessed stockpiles.
Tailings are the toxic waste after processing. Occasionally, over time and with an increase of metal prices, there is a case for reprocessing tailings to extract further value, but as HUM has a modern, state of the art plant and recovery rates are excellent, that is unlikely. Obviously, over the life of the mine, increased capacity has to be found and this lift, to give extra capacity was as planned.