Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
But anyone wanting 100% of Alpala will have to carry the future funding (even if CGP dwindle to nothing by whatever means).
The cost is the amount paid (in your calcs. 250m) and that takes any purchaser over the key 20% on TSX rules.
It would be the next step in a hostile takeover: it is a solid move towards the required 50% control and that is what we are likely to see, a battle for control rather than outright purchase. What the big boys want is to dictate funding and development options to their own best interests.
As you say, the CGP rise could just have been on rumor, but I am still struggling to see why either BHP or Newcrest (or jointly) do not go for control (in essence, the CGP EGM strategy, which rather let the cat out of the bag).
As you and many others say, the current SP is a puzzle when compared with the 39.5p in Nov 17, but cannot be compared with the 2014 figures, since that was pre significant equity dilution to fund Yanfolila, as debt funding at that time was well nigh on impossible.
I always admire the team here for taking the balsy decision to raise the finance in the way that they did, instead of sitting on their hands drawing fat salaries whilst marking time doing nothing (Kefi and Condor, amongst others, spring to mind and they at least are the survivors of the multiple crash called AIM).
We now benefit in these extraordinary times from that equity raise.
The debt is unlikely to be paid off earlier (I think there is a penalty). Instead, the FCF will be funding Kouroussa, which will put off new borrowing for some time (and eventually reduce any amount that might have to be borrowed for Kouroussa).
I have to say the reduction of political risk alongside extension of Yanfolila LOM should have triggered a decent re rate here, but perhaps it will take exploration results from Kouroussa and Dugbe to light the touch paper.
Spot on JGY and TBTT: looking good for the life of mine extension by blending this high grade.
The cost of the drilling campaign, for what has been achieved, also looks well controlled and to achieve the target meters, in times of Covid, is commendable.
Equally, I have to say that management is making progress in good communications: it is infuriating when they consign the drilling campaign to a footnote on the quarterly operation update and a separate RNS is appropriate for such an important part of the company's overall activity.
So, well done team, both management and on the ground.
It is such good news that it is worth posting twice.
It is not only the practical difficulties, but also the negative perception by would be investors, particularly any institutions, who do look carefully at political risk. This now is effectively in the strong grip of the military, backed by popular consent and the next eighteen months should be a period of stability: it bodes well that previous protesters also have a stake in the transitional process.
A diplomat with ECOWAS credentials seems to be the perfect choice to heal any breaches with neighboring countries and get on with the job in hand, stabilizing the north and rooting out corruption.
We (and the people of Mali) should be grateful that the festering civil unrest was brought to an abrupt end and that this genuinely looks like a determined effort to make change for the better.
Recent company news has been excellent: the multi asset approach is really sound and we should benefit from being both a producer and an explorer in 3/4 countries (depending on our ultimate share of BH, which does look to be promising) and regular news flow.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/ba-named-mali-interim-president-colonel-named-vp-
So, it looks as if the ECOWAS demands have been met without bloodshed and that the official opposition are signalling approval.
GLA
As Ekow Dontoh is the reporter/ one of the reporters in both the Bloomberg reports, the initial briefing from the meeting must have been confused, with it majoring on the lifting of sanctions.
As these have "already been eased" in some areas, it would seem that this particular weapon has been blunted on the ground: hardly surprising, considering collateral damage.
Thanks Sandman.
Good news for the people of Mali and good news for us.
Hats off to the military, men of action, putting their country first, both by bringing an unsatisfactory situation to an end and negotiating reasonably to break the internal and ECOWAS deadlocks.
Of course it is great news.
Going into negotiations in October with no cash in the kitty would have been exceptionally difficult and this has given NM some muscle.
The outcome is still likely to be a sale, but at a fair price.
The point is that if this is such a fantastic project, then the majors will be determined and either make an offer or go hostile. All they have to do is obtain 51% of the shares to gain control, either individually or as a "jv" and that is simply done by making/increasing an offer to gain sufficient acceptances.
It happens to all of the decent projects and it is really difficult to see any escape for SOLG from that inevitability.
The shock will be if BHP do not make a move as soon as the standstill agreement comes to an end, as the expectation has to be that they will want to take control of progress ASAP.
It has to be remembered that they do not take "no" for an answer: they way they obtained their foot in the door (buying a complete holding) is a good indication of how they will proceed.
So, much of the cash explained.
In addition to paying down the Coris debt and a bit off normal creditors, a big increase in inventory and quite hefty capital purchases.
Good to see admin expenses come down pro rata.
A great pity that these did not come out earlier: they would have ended a lot of speculation as to what had happened to the cash.
Forward looking, they are still maintaining the annual target and so the expectation has to be that production for July and August is on track and AISC under $1000. With the current POG, that bodes well for H2.
As others have said, a good RNS.
This is the opposite of a power vacuum.
Power has been taken from the feeble Keita, unable to deal with the extremists in the north and unpopular and undemocratic in the south.
Power is now in the hands of the military, headed by young men with a vision for this country and backed by an enthusiastic population.
It simply needs good relations with neighbors and the ongoing support of the international community to make the step change to a modern Mali.
Everyone is free to have and express their opinion on this matter and time will show who is right and who is wrong.
Repetition is dull, but it is worth looking at Egypt and al Sisi: a military dictatorship might stick in the democratic craw, but recognise what he has done: stemmed extremism and gone for economic improvement. This lot have a good chance of a similar achievement and better: bright, well trained and with a clear view of how they will proceed and the time scales involved.
Well, it has not taken long for things to settle down again.
One of the interesting aspects of the border issue is that there is competition between the various neighboring countries for Mali's import and export business. Apparently, historically Cote D'Ivory had most of the trade, but more latterly, the connection through to the Senegal port of Dakar and improved train links has taken some of that trade. It also looks as if the train line is some sort of joint enterprise between the two countries.
It is hard to see that any neighboring country will shoot itself in the foot by blocking lucrative trade.
Equally, those countries also affected by insurgents, Niger and Burkina Faso, will be rooting for the new regime.
So, will ECOWAS slink off into silence or try and parade some face saving solution?
Even the liberal press is struggling to dredge up some negative spin on this situation.
For me, it is the end of uncertainty and I think that it will be good for Mali and good for investors in the country.
At the end of the day, it is simply going to be a face saving exercise for ECOWAS and the international community, after their somewhat naive initial response(s).
The first 20 minute meeting made clear that any thoughts of reinstating Keita was a non starter.
How could either ECOWAS or the International community possibly hamper this new leadership, with the skill determination and commitment to deal with the jihadists in the north, ie do the job that everyone wants to be done?
Whilst no one should be a proponent of war, Mali is not a country of extremists. Much like Egypt, when the Muslim brotherhood started to introduce measures of intolerance, it was time for someone to step in and deal with the problem and that usually is the army, when political will is feeble.
The current leader is the man for the job, having headed up the special forces who dealt with the Radisson Blu hijack a few years ago (whilst Keita was out of the country).
What we should now be able to look forward to is stability in the south and a restoration of peace in the north, which will be good for the million Malians who have been displaced. Once ECOWAS has found a way to back down gracefully, this should be a change for the better, halting deterioration under an ineffective government.
Interesting that Dicko, rather than hamper the junta's effort, has agreed to stand aside. It means that the new order can concentrate on its efforts on improvement instead of wasting energy endlessly quelling civil disobedience. Considering that this only happened last Tuesday, law and order seems to have been restored remarkably quickly.
As set out in the RNS on Kouroussa, there is a fairly heavy program over the next 6 months and as it is said to be pre funding, it will be coming out of FCF. The more it is self funded, the less overall interest will be paid and at current POG, HUM should be able to fund this, plus the exploration and development at Yanfolila.
Β§ The Kouroussa Project requires further technical development prior to committing to the mine and process plant development. A six month "pre-development phase" is envisaged to address the following areas:
o Geology - completing structural geology and de-risking resource estimate
o Complete mine design and ore schedule
o Tender the Mining Contract
o Complete process design and final metallurgical testwork
o Select and award an EPCM contract
o Commence Front End Engineering Design of the process plant
o Order items of equipment with long lead times
o Finalise Permitting, including updates to ESIA & Operating permit
o Complete design and costing of the TSF and Site Wide Water supply
o Establish construction camp and admin buildings, including clinic
o Identify fuel and power suppliers
o Complete security risk assessment and establish airstrip
Β§ This will allow the project to be optimised and de-risked ahead of final funding and will ensure the Project can be developed economically and expediently.
I agree with that, Ash: it has to be the net asset figure and the $15 million is a substantial reduction in any write off.
Furthermore, ARX are not only spending $10 million on exploration, but also picking up the tab for the DFS, likely to be a significant figure as yet not quantified (plus of course on going costs).
Finally, HUM has 51% ie, the controlling interest and it is difficult to say what premium that carries.
I have to say, I am not expecting an accounting write off on the grounds of the Dugbe deal.
The new project is far more suitable for HUM, better synergy in every way and I am with Tiger: really glad that Dan took the sensible course of action and left elephant hunting to the big boys and if they bag a whole elephant, with some ridiculous increase in oz.. and/or grade, we get half and would be in a position to fund or sell, as we chose, by then.