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"significant near-term opportunities to deliver value-enhancing data and commercial partnerships". Am I right in thinking that this is the first time we've be told its "near term"? It seems the emphasis is stronger now and that came across in the last Hunt presentation on the 11th. I'm optimistic we are going to enter a period of news, hopefully positive.
Yes, agree that the webcast was positive and light was shed on a few of the issues we all had concerns about. However, it seems that the Board should be better clued into the whole clinical stage process. There seems to be some naivety and, as Olav admits there is a lot of "learn as you go" approach. Given that the next stage needs to demonstrate clear positive results the patient selection (of candidates without weak retinas) seems pivotal to me. Without the two failures the results are startlingly good but the SP fell off a cliff because that wasn't made clear enough - in fact the opposite message seemed to prevail. It would appear we should expect some good news in the next 6-12 months about new deals, either similar to Fosun for Japan or partnerships with Big Pharma - and why not? There doesn't seem too much wrong with where we are today, save poorly presented RNS notifications. Financially, RENE should have cash, including milestones from Fosun, to get close to the point of proof. Well, maybe we all wish we had sold at 3GBP but if I had, I'd be buying back twice the amount today at these prices. In the anticipation of not much news for a while - good luck all!
Yes Taverham. Now that Woodford is out the way perhaps there is a better chance of his stake being sold to a major investor? There is no shame or pride by the new manager in doing that now - at the current prices its a small price to pay for a controlling stake in something very positive backed up by good clinical results. Of course, the best we can hope for is some good news on the deal front, especially for the US, Japan or Europe. That could happen at any time so as PC01 says its smart to keep the stock in hand however much the last two weeks hurts. The confusing RNS was part of the problem but I feel Woodford carries 80% of the blame of why we've gone so low again. Hold tight!
I'm not sure if there is a published presentation of Saturday's talk by Dr Dugel or not? However, here is crux of what he presented https://www.mdmag.com/conference-coverage/aao-2019/cellbased-therapy-shows-early-promise-for-retinitis-pigmentosa. I was hoping for more raw data about the patient cohorts so does anyone know where that might be? Will an RNS follow this up with more?
Olav’s presentation is out (https://ois.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ReNeuron.pdf). It doesn’t tell us that much more than the RNS except that we now know the procedural problems that led to vision loss in two out of the 22 patients. He states that the data will be presented on Saturday by Dr Dugel so let’s hope he can explain the points being discussed here since the RNS.
Importantly he needs to clear up the confusion about the one patient at 9 months. By wrongly connecting the dots the chart gives the impression that the patient deteriorated between 6-9 months. However, we don’t actually know the data for this patient at 180 days or even at 90 days. I don’t think we know his/her starting condition - although we can assume it was the most severe.
The next three patients, who had very poor condition, have gone on to record an amazing 28 letter improvement after 6 months. The subsequent cohorts, excluding the two unfortunate patients, also show very positive results even though their condition was not as serious.
Evidence shows that retinal tears seem to be an occupational hazard for RP and AMD patients under treatment and even with a failure rate of 9% it appears that most sufferers at late stage will take the risk in order to regain vision. However, it would obviously be great if Dr Dugel can explain how this risk can be minimised in future patients.
The presentation clearly states that there are no safety issues relating to the Reneuron product, that’s a clear positive.
Knowing that all other treatments on the market carry greater risks, have lesser visual improvement and cost much more leads me to feel that the assault on the SP these two weeks has been unjustified in the extreme. We have the prospect of a marketable product here. Now let’s remind ourselves, this company has a current MCAP of less than $70M!
Woodford aside, this stock is severely undervalued. Perhaps today is a last chance to buy at these levels before Dr Dugel presents tomorrow?
Hey TT and RENE_to_40p,
I hope you two stick in there since I’m not so sure we have bad news here at all. But we have had the most confusing of RNS notices and it does make Olav look incompetent – it should never have been let out with so many questions hanging over it.
To my mind the results rest on the two vision loss candidates and Dr Praval should answer that direct on the 12th. If that procedural error is rectifiable then the results look very good again, don’t you agree? We need patient by patient data to know exactly, I hope we get it perhaps on the 10th? And I still think there is a case for uptake on the results as they stand – what value eyesight for the sake of a small procedure every 12 months or so?
Today the doubters are having their day and we may end up some way south of here but that may change after the 10th or 12th – just a week away. I hope you both stay in here! GLA
Been looking at the data and it’s so badly presented. However, it’s clear to see that the treatment has worked best with those having the greatest eyesight deficiency. That was always expected. Remember, this segment has the greatest market size and need. And also remember, if a sufferer does not take treatment earlier then he/she will need to do it later – therefore it can be argued that the potential market doesn’t change. Of course, we need to fully understand the two poor candidates who suffered permanent loss of vision; is this directly related to RENE’s treatment or not? Is the procedure correctable? Dr Pravin Dugel should be able to answer that directly on the 12th. Without those two failures the results look very encouraging and I think the market will react accordingly once the information is presented in a much clearer manner.
TT, it's a funny comment you make about selling everything. I kind of did sell up a lot to put into RENE - I'm that confident about the results. My luck was that what I sold was mostly WPCT shares! So I have had a double benefit of sorts, those shares are down more than 40% from then. I've been in RENE for close on three years but when I got nervous with Woodford I got much more into RENE at around the 50p level. That really brought my RENE average down so I can't complain about where we are these days but, like the rest of us, I want to see it through to the 10GBP+ level where the MCAP will look about right! Fingers crossed.
Take your point TT but the company does have legal responsibilities to adhere to. My understanding is that if there is a material change in the results then the company is under an obligation to tell the market. Yes, this is AIM but it would be a massive deception to reveal that there have been several months of bad results with no RNS to say likewise. Of course, the longer term results may not be as good as the 3 shorter terms ones we know about - that's a different story. Still, my sense is that the results of Cohort 6 will be as good as the previous one. Let's see!
Phil is spot on correct. Ollav made it perfectly clear that we would be told if the results changed and we haven't had any notice at all. He went out of his way to make that point earlier in the year so we should be getting more of the same as Cohort 5. Egg, with positive Cohort 6 results the company should have a CAP around $300M (minimum) based upon other companies in the field. That's three times today's valuation. The only unknown is Woodford. Does he try to reap the rewards long term or are his short term problems too much to stick it out? Logic would say the share price should creep back up to the 300p mark by the time of the conference unless Woodford offloads in a hurry. Let's see and GLA!
Exactly right Popes. Remember, Ollav stated clearly back after the Cohort 5 results that we would be notified immediately should there be bad news. Well, we all know that Cohort 6 results are done and dusted and 7 and 8 are at least 30 days in. The low SP is purely down to Mr Woodford. After the results are announced in mid October he'll have his escape route and hopefully we'll see the SP move to where it should be. I've bought in more. GLA!
Well, we've come down a lot further than we thought but, in the end, it doesn't make any difference to those holders who will see this out to a marketable treatment(s). I still think we are only 2 weeks from news which should reinforce the cohort 1 results - I reiterate the comments made by Olav on 21st March (see around minute 11). The latest news must surely be the annual results which is just over three weeks from now. The Woodford situation is an unfortunate distraction but doesn't change the fact that RENE is only valued at circa $100M today. Rivals with lessor technologies are at multiples of that. This share is seriously undervalued as it stands today. Fosun carried out significant due diligence - the share is a strong buy. Hang in there all, our patience will be rewarded.
TT - a later presentation confused things slightly regards the results of next cohorts but I'm not having any sleepless nights. Bought more today on the dip. I take Olav's words at face value and we know from the Fosun deal statements that a lot of due diligence went into that. In a month we'll probably know and the SP should top £5 at that point. Sleep well on that!
TopTiger - maybe I could put it clearer. Olav clearly stated on the 21st March that results would be announced mid year (I take that to be around the end of this month) and that if there was a "material" change in results we would be told. Take a look at his presentation from minute 11:20 here https://youtu.be/DhIz6Jmz8ZU . It's also on the RENE site. He clearly says " If you don't see that press release then you don't have to worry!". My meaning is that without any bad news, all should be well. Hope that explains my honest opinion.
Allie - we are expecting news now but no panic if we don't get it. Remember - if there is a material change to the current results then the company must report those to the market. The second cohort should be at the stage where we got the first cohort results. So if there was a worse result then we should have already been told. On top of that, we would have been told if the ongoing results from cohort 1 were worse now. So, today's SP is all to do with Woodford, just look around at his other shares. Three months ago I luckily sold all my WPCT shares and added it all to my RENE because we have 20 years of research behind us and great results to date. Hold tight as you say - this share has a long way to go after the next results! GLA!