RE: Glen11 Jun 2018 23:32
Glen,
Honestly... this will sound contradictory to the technical analysis I do. But hear me out. The market is unpredictable. No one ever knows when a crash is coming, and the biggest ones like 2008 didn't happen in a week, a month, or several months... the 2008 crash took over a year to finally find it's floor.
Can you imagine how many times during that period, that it took a big fall then bounced and people assumed, that's the correction over time to pile in... only for it to drop even more than it did before? That's exactly what happened. Everyone says oh that's the correction over, bounce time... then bang it drops even more after the bounce.
Then they repeat the same thing, that's definitely over now, then bang it drops more again after it's short term bounce. Only when most people start to think, right I've lost most of my money here, if I come out I'll never recover what I've lost, I'm holding and I'm buying more when I can... that's when the market starts to recover.
So yes you might time the seriously big moves right, but then you have to battle with your patience to try and work out when the crash has finished. Ask yourself this... if a 10% drop happened starting tomorrow and then bounced the middle of next week. Would you assume it's a short term correction and maybe think about buying again? Most people would, myself included.
That's the unpredictable part. The technical analysis side is about risk management. If a pattern or an oscillator goes positive, you can say that more often than not that will result in a run. But a lot of the time it does't, that's when your stop loss kicks in. If you don;t have a stop maybe you hold, maybe you get lucky and it recovers.
Or maybe the stock never recovers. You never actually know. So technical analysis is about putting probability in your favour, not predicting the market. Absolutely no one can predict the stock market, and if you see someone making a prediction and getting it right. I guarantee you it's only a matter of time before they get it wrong.
So with investment trusts. It's about buying, and then constantly contributing to it, so that over the long term you benefit from compounded gains as the fund will more often than not buy good companies that are solid investments. But it doesn't matter what you buy, whether it's a fund or a stock or multiple stocks.
There is always a time where the market will slaughter them, and you need to be confident in what you've bought to be able to whether the storm. You might come out thinking it's going to fall further only to see it bounce past your exit price. But with a fund, even if it's taking an absolute tanking, you know that over the very long term due to the fund more than likely investing in decent stocks, it;s going to recover and make a profit.
That said there are top performers and bottom performers... so best not to go all into one of them either, buy multiple funds and diversify.