The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Hi Ade, apologies for not replying earlier - just seeing your question now. Where do I see this within next couple of months? Difficult to say really. Worst case is drop to around 1200. That'd be massive support from pre-covid times combined with several other technical stuff. Should it reach that? No. Equally, I don't really think about it cause I'm not holding this for just a couple of months. Thinking about things like this is what leads to bad decisions, such as selling at a loss right before that unknowable lowest point gets reached (done that a few times too!).
Some other great posts on the weekend also
All-in-all, this is a good board. Boards are almost always bias, but are usually unrealistic in their bias. Here, it's generally accepted that we're in a downward trend, but there's good discussion about broader factors and risks at play. I like that - thanks to the other posters on here
Unsure about others, but I'm noticing quite a significant change of narrative in media these days. Reuters, FT, Bloomberg etc all beginning to talk about inflation rising just around the corner (before end of this year). We've seen almost every other inflationary asset increase in value these past 3-6 months, there's definitely uncertainty beginning to creep into the market.
In Jan 2020 I shorted DAX, DOW & FTSE after hearing that 700million Chinese people were locked down with the virus. I figured that could only be bad news for global economy. Markets continued to go up and I ended up closing my shorts at a 5 figure loss on 18th Feb. We all know what started on Thurs 20th Feb... The writing was on the all for all to see, but the markets refused to react.
Not to mention the context of rising gold pre-covid, the amount of stimulus and government debt is so obviously inflationary, it's again just a matter of time... This time, I'm going to stick with my gutt
PS: Good to see you on here also Dartron. CAML's definitely my choice as most under-rated stock
Let's see Dartron
Remain keen on 3GBP in run up to going ex-divi. Equally, I had my sights there back when this was $3.5-3.6s, so will be massively disappointed to not see that now with copper at 4+. If this were listed in US or Canada, it'd easily be over a fiver already
Interesting tick-up in SP of late. Looks like we used the 50 day MA as a support, which may potentially mean that we're starting a new uptrend? Nice close at 170, just above most recent high is also positive. Perhaps some enthusiasm about reopening of economy and budget supporting new buyers etc helping here? 180p next stop, following which we've got to close the gap back up to 200p. Would be nice to see some positive movement here
Gotta say, quite surprised that there hasn't been an increase in the coalculus coin price on the back of this news - it remains flat.
Either the Indonesians, Koreans & Singapore don't really care about the GST announcement, they don't even know about it, or they think it's so far off it's not worth considering yet.
Maybe if COAL could get listed on a decent exchange (uniswap or something) then traction would mount. As our fates are linked, traction in COAL would be good for GST also
Just had POLY come at at 1740 on HL post close... ah well, there's a wishing!
@Ade, Yeh, I learned that lesson investing in oil stocks pre-15 crash. When commodity prices were stable-ish, it was actually easy to find 50+% plays. Just read all of the production RNSs where AIM stocks had increased production by 25-100% with new wells coming online, buy them, and then a few months later when the financial statements came out the stock prices jumped... I remember buying one stock that increased production by 400% in a single quarter. Thought I'd hit the jack pot. However, the oil crash came and then the SP crash over 80%. Lesson learnt!
But you're absolutely right, makes no sense why these giant companies swing so much on a daily basis due to minor changes in commodity price. Especially when a lot of them have prices hedged and are actually either stable or only offering upside potential. But that's the market. Guess it's the side effect of many things being algo plays these days
Anyway, all the best.
LONDON, March 5 (Reuters) – Britain's competition watchdog wants a new independent banking industry body to accelerate take-up of "open banking" apps to spawn new fintech companies and offer more choice to consumers.
Open banking allows third-party internet based applications to compete with big banks by accessing a customer's accounts to make payments, or find better deals on loans and other services and products.
The Competition and Markets Authority on Friday launched a public consultation until the end of March on strengthening how the financial sector operates open banking and ensures sufficient competition.
Open banking has made a "good start" with hundreds of apps now available and around 450 firms in the pipeline, the CMA said.
"While the largest banks have shown signs of embracing open banking, they may also have an incentive to slow the further development of the open banking ecosystem, where this conflicts with their own commercial objectives," the CMA said.
HSBC, Lloyds, NatWest and Barclays continue to dominate high street banking, and the CMA wants the new industry body to push forward open banking.
It would replace the Open Banking Implementation Entity or OBIE, an interim body funded by big banks and led by a trustee Imran Gulamhuseinwala.
"Open banking has been critical to supporting the UK's emerging and growing fintech industry," Gulamhuseinwala said.
UK Finance, which represents Britain's banks, has put forward a blueprint for a not-for-profit company, but the CMA said there was a risk of big banks having an "inappropriate" influence over the new body's chair.
An "independent and vigorous" chair was needed to oversee a period of growth and not "quiet consolidation", the CMA said.
There are over three million users of open banking apps in Britain, with new users being added at the rate of a million every six months. Usage is expected to increase further as the government uses it to collect tax from companies.
Many of the apps are provided by fintechs, a critical growth sector for the government as it seeks to bolster the City of London's global attraction after being cut off from the European Union by Brexit.
Morning Dartron, your right about my high. Should of been open on Mon11th (I note that you've used close on Fri 8th... similar). Re: the low, think we need to extend the wedge, as otherwise we might have just broken your support suggesting further downward movement, hence why I went back to Dec
I have different accounts for different purposes. Annoyingly, there is one which I'll need to liquidate late May early June which is holding 4k CAML. Its not the end of the game as I've CAML in my other 2 accounts also, but this should be faaar north of where it is. Beginning to get frustrated as the time horizon starts to loom
Part of the challenge with a stock that's not very liquid is that it gets manipulated easier. CAML is following technical patterns - indicating to me that there's a large company manipulating it (JPM would be my guess cause it all started following their RNS and it is their MO).
We're in an ascending triangle pattern which is creating a range of ~15% for traders (low from Dec8th and high from 12th Jan). Suggests to me ongoing consolidation for next few months - unless the FY results and Q1 statements can wake this thing up.
Insane... How long before the market starts to wake up here? When commodity prices move up 100%, one would assume share price might move up something also
Personally, I'd be suggesting a seat on the sidelines with a 'ready to buy' attitude. POLY has dipped 25% from August high and is hovering around the Fib 61.8% retracement level from 2020 low to peak - subsequently also the floor established in June 2020. The 4hr chart has started to turn and even the daily RSI has (at least temporarily) halted its decline... As mentioned earlier, I was expecting some choppiness around the news with a bit of a rise and folks selling into it. That's kinda what we've seen.
Perhaps still early to buy for those on the sidelines. I think we're likely going to have volatility around next 2-3 months, but I'm anticipating June to see change in direction... That's largely relating to broader gold movements. Gold's getting close to some major downward resistance levels which should hopefully form supports over the coming weeks. Thing is, supports need time to be formed and consolidated. They don't happen overnight.
Who knows for sure. Maybe it drops another 20% this month. But where will it be 6+ months from now? My guess is north
Gold drops 2.7% and POLY moves closer to 1400... well that was predictable
It really was predictable, as mentioned already on here. However, I could never bring myself to short here cause the fundamentals so drastically contradict the technicals.
1689 for gold... thats what I'm watching next. What a crazy world we live in
Informative interview on rising yield rates in America: youtu.be/zH8Tg9nCzhc
(Note: add in the www. to make it work)
Indicative of market beginning to prepare for higher and sustained levels of inflation. Remainder of this year should be interesting. I may start growing my cash pile again
Fair comments @All. Always interesting hearing thoughts from others
Silver lining in having an under appreciated stock is that the board doesn't get filled with garbage
Personally, I'm anticipating a short price rise on results, but with people selling into the rise. Not expecting it to last
Think I posted a week or so back about a likely drop to ~1400. Whilst not surprised by the drop, I have been by its speed. Totally unwarranted! 1400 combines floor from June low, 100wk MA and major Fib supports. However, getting a little concerned about it holding.
It also needs to be recognised that POLY reached 1400 pre-covid, prior to all the inflationary stimulus etc. Unbelievable isn't it. Imagine that. If covid & stimulus never happened, gold may have been higher than it is today - cause it was already rising fast in recognition of unsustainable government debts. WTF!!?
Now seeing gold dropping to 1700 shortly
But then what?
I imagine that there's a whole host of people sitting on the sidelines here watching this drop, but waiting to buy once sentiment changes. Personally, I think it's all just a waiting game... Inflation is already here. Wider market is just unrealistic in its risk appetite. How long before sentiment changes?
This spring should be a good one.
Results end of Mar should be good. Not great, cause most of the rise in copper came late in the year, but still good and divi announcements
Then in late April and may, we should expect both a divi (8-10p) plus Q1 results. Q1 has got to be out of this world and easily camls best on record. Who knows they might even start issuing quarterly divi whilst profits are this absurdly high
I recon that a dual listing in US or Canada would see us over a fiver within a week. We've had a historical PE of about 7. It's gotta be closer to a forward PE of 4 now (maybe even less?) especially after these copper price increases. North American listing would probs put FPW closer to 12-15 range.
I know it's never going to happen, just saying though.
It is insane when you think about it. Copper is up ~20% this year. CAML hasn't moved up at all
What's the competition for most undervalued company on LSE? CAML has got to be in with a shout
Thanks for the Coalculus interview Ladydec. Useful insights
@masterboffin: remember to convert currency. IDR is very different from USD
@Rktech: yes, it would be good to have an example from someone who has successfully managed to buy. I also tried on Bitpro via Korea, but couldn't
Note: within the interview shared by ladydec, they do state that it's predominantly private, use for financial institutions across SE Asia (back in 2019...sure much will have changed this past 18 months).
@JiffyBag: Re: API, that's part of the model of Cardano if I recall. That's defo a crypto that I made sure to get into
Thought I'd just buy a bit of COAL on the side - given that GST & COAL are looking like they'll be closely related.
To be honest, I've not found it straight forward...
+ ives: COAL is promoting a 24% APY for anyone staking it's crypto
+ COAL SP has increased ~200% since beginning of this year, with another ~80% room for growth before challenging previous ATH.
+/- COAL market cap appears to be around 5.7million pounds (calculated from Twitter stating 147622013 staked coins @ 14.762% of total * price 0.0057 = market cap). This tiny sum however means that growth could be exorbitant IF it were to take off!
- ive: COAL is obviously used very little. Their Coal Lite app has only been downloaded "100+" times in google play (I guess the next jump is 1000?). However, volume has multiplied significant in the past month, up to $150k USD per day.
- ive: I did download coal lite, but can't buy COAL in it... must be bought elsewhere. For me, that's not intuitive
- ive: I could only find COAL via an Indonesian or S-Korean market. Tried to create an account to buy a small amount (just to go through the process) but kept encountering errors. Gave up after 45 minutes
Really, I think we need to know more about what the actual plan is. The idea of coaculus is fine. It’s high risk …. But we don’t even know for sure that’s what we’re getting into here.
The staking yields at 24% are excellent. Combined with capital growth potential, people getting in here could do extremely well – assuming that it does start to take off.
I don’t think GST is going to create a new exchange for coal. Clearly GS Fintech will be different from the past business model. Try to promote coal in UK & Singapore? I’m really not sure…. Highly speculative right now.
What are others thoughts?
Good post Dartron. Broadly share similar thoughts
Re: Cypto however, I did buy (not much bitcoin though. All the hype, but poorer performance). Why? Imagine gold and silver performance without JP Morgans well known manipulation. What might that look like? Well, the answer is something like what you get with crypto.
No harm in having both.
Will be interesting to see reaction to results out here in just over a weeks time
@Derby, we're in one of those unfortunate scenarios where we want inflation to pick up - so that gold picks up and miners SP increases.
Equally, at the same time, we really want to be proved wrong. Cause significant inflation would likely put the real value of our broader portfolio and actual buying power down... How do we win in such a situation?
What I would like however is for inflation figures to just remotely reflect real inflation! Petrol is up ~20% in the past 12 months. Stamps are up. Council tax is up. Real estate is up. Everything in the supermarket is up... yet the Government says we see deflation. It's crazy how out of touch the financial world is from reality
Interesting. Bounce directly off of ascending lows created from 24th March.
As mentioned the other day, had thought that there was chance of a bear trap ~16p.
Won't top up here because have my own rules about limiting holdings in a single stock to 5% of portfolio. Let's hope that there's a close over 18p and that we can start to see beginning of a new trend. If so, 24.7 comes back into view, followed by 29, 40 and 50... but only to those with that ounce of patience :P
PS: Yes, this can be an emotional board. e.g. I suggested a possible bear trap a few days back and received several comments about speaking the stock down. The irony! There are some great posters on here, but I find them unfortunately drowned out much of the time