Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
what Cannacord says is irrelevant, they gave globo a 300% upside and less than 24 hours later it was 0. its their job to promote their stocks with high values, or at least they think that's their job clearly.
Another day, another inexplicable bit of volatility. There are 0 posts for 2 weeks on the bb, so no active ramping/de-ramping campaign or hordes or morons muddying the waters like on many volatile stocks. no RNS, not really much in the way of volume being traded or big individual trades. no news that I can find. nothing happening in the world that affects the business indirectly as far as I can see. what a weird share this is.
The CEO, who is exceedingly wealthy, raising he stake to only ~10x what I have into his own company is not only not that impressive, it is downright worrying. Does he believe in what he is doing or is he just keeping the seat warm to earn his salary? he should be putting 5, 10x that amount in if he thinks he is going to turn this around.
Ah, this is interesting. In the last two weeks, the reported % of short holdings in the company has halved from ~1% to 0.5%. that is excellent news. both in terms of downward pressure and what it shows about underlying sentiment over such a short period.
Wow, what a rollercoaster. I could not understand the reason for the drop down to 120, so I very nearly sold out at that level. I thought with no news there was some horrible insider trading going on! in those situations its often best to pull out while you can. lucky me I didn't sell but sadly I didn't buy cheap either. shame. oh well, came out of it even so cant complain too much. Tough share to hold, really tough.
Hopefully they use this as an opportunity to improve efficiency etc. and come out the other side an even more profitable company but the worst thing about that is then everyone who was saying a re-structuring was needed will be even more 'I told you so'. This will self-reinforce the cycle even further and the next time there is a dip people will again demand 'action' and hype up the drama instead of really understanding the links and causality. I think its all a bit of a farce. shareholders can be a real millstone in the wrong circumstances, very counter productive when it happens. however, as someone who didn't have a very big stake before the share price crash I am pretty happy about it! gives me a great entry point for a more significant stake.
I feel that this whole theory that the company needs re-structuring is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Here is a possible interpretation of the situation. You get stakeholders like valueact who want to see short term gains to fluff their books and keep their end of year results looking good getting very upset about the drop in profits so they make a big deal of it. people listen and the share price falls. they then point at the share price falling and say 'look, I told you so'. Then things like the not very clear financial forecast are highlighted. in order to prevent further share falls the company is then forced to agree that this is a real problem and that they will do something about it, prompting even more 'I told you so' which lowers the share price even further. this leads to the company being forced to enter a damaging and complicated re-structuring process, which will lead to more short term losses. leading to more 'I told you so'. Ok this is a massively simplistic scenario and I'm not saying that's how it is but I think its a factor and its entirely sentiment driven. This is a downwards spiral but consider, was there a real structural problem in the first place? Well, I am not sure there was. Sure the management could be more efficient and the company reporting could be better but I see the drop in profits as just a predictable low point in the product cycle. old products are going offline and new products are in development. in a 20-30 year product lifetime, a gap of 2 years where profits halve is irrelevant. its does not prove poor planning etc. but the more newspaper headlines say 'troubled engineer rolls royce' the more it becomes the accepted fact. I don't think they are in any serious trouble at all really, other than by sentiment. They are in the low part of a natural high/low cycle that the city just cannot accept is normal in this situation. the city expects constant increase and constant profit and regards anything else as failure. I think that is a big part of the problem. Sure there is lots of stuff they could do better, any big company can do that, if they simplify management and improve transparency then great but is there a serious underlying problem? I see no evidence of that and I think the actions they are being pressured into taking aren't necessarily very helpful.
Oh dear, I said I thought there would be no news and the share price would hover around current levels given that I don't think brokers estimates would make a difference. Didn't consider for one minute it coming out an hour later that Woodford had dumped his shares!! that sums up my luck recently. People really listen to him and ape his share choices (although I think he has got this year badly wrong) so I expect this to have a serious downward pressure on the stock into the new year. short term this could easily see sub 500 and then after next bad news/dividend cut go further before rebound. cant decide if I sell out now and re-buy later, I see nothing on the near term horizon to indicated a recovery any time soon but then I didn't anticipate this turn either! Probs just going to hold and buy more if it gets close to 450. seems the least risk long term. don't want to sell just before a mystery re-bound and get locked out forever. that would again sum up my luck this year. tough one.
Yeah I don't agree with that at all. I don't expect any sustainable short term gains because there will be no news until the new year. the price will likely bump up and down on sentiment and brokers belatedly updating their targets.
Yeah I don't agree with that at all. I don't expect any sustainable short term gains because there will be no news until the new year. the price will likely bump up and down on sentiment and brokers belatedly updating their targets.
This is most odd, there is nothing I can see that explains this continued fall. I assume the city knows something we don't. the cashflow problems have been satisfactorily explained to my mind and the figures as they were last released were good. no idea what is happening so wont be buying any extra even at this price because I don't understand the reasons so cant decide on a value.
Yup, deride anyone who agrees as a shorter. that is the standard response on all these boards, it was the same on GLOBO and how wrong they all were. I have never taken a short on anything, I don't like them. it doesn't matter however as a stock goes down on shareholders selling with no need for shorts to be involved. I suffered through this sort of event on Globo, I lost out partly due to being re-assured by all the muppets saying 'get in while the price is low' and 'all the negative stuff is just shorter conspiracy' and 'When will LSE stop this ruining of a good company' and 'TW is the devil why would anyone listen?' etc. sound familiar? I decided not to sell the day before suspension and then it was too late. if I had ignored the boards entirely, I would probably have sold that day. Its good to learn from your own mistakes, its better to learn from others. to all those of you who have been invested a while and aren't just traders trying to time the bounces, you are warned. all these rampers and serial deniers will disappear if the company goes under and wont care. you will be left with the bill. Anyway i'm not invested either way so I will leave now, I've tried to help those who might end up in my position. GLA
Worth 50 million according to who? the company? This is the product line that was exposed as having almost no real users, very negative reviews from the few real users that do exist and massive numbers of fake looking positive reviews from users in countries where the product is not used? So the value put on it is irrelevant. And a however many short dead cat bounces there are as this thing tumbles down the stairs, this is not going to end well. ofc some few people will be able to trade in the bounces and make a profit, you can profit from any share if your timing is good, that does not in anyway represent a good thing. anyone who is an investor and not a gambler, sell.
It is irresponsible to compare this to SEV, a company that has been volatile but never loses more than about 25% over a period of a few days and has, as far as I am aware, never been outed as having fraudulent products or extremely dodgy and inexplicable accounting practices. Yeah sure you can wait for low prices on a non-fraud company and then buy when its low. That's standard good practice but what relevance has that to this situation? none. the price isn't low, its probably high for the immense risk now posed by owning this share given what has been revealed about it. And buyers aren't 'loading up'. the price continues to slide. this is not caused by shorting, this is caused by owners of the share selling while they still can. Very disingenuous stuff from you there.
And what did GLOBO do the day of the blog release that killed it? it released an RNS denying that any of the allegations were true. Its irrelevant, they will say they aren't true whether they are or not, its a reflex reaction to deny everything. The company is in denial, make sure you aren't.
Get out now, while you can. its not about panic, its about risk. I was a Globo owner, this smells exactly the same, fake reviewed products and bad accounts probably means a fake company valuation at the very least. People will sit here and deny it and say 'TW is a lair and an evil shorter' and all that nonsense but they said EXACTLY the same thing on the Globo board. learn from our mistake and take this seriously.
Perhaps they are just actively trading it. If they bought at 540 and sold at 610 they have made a very tidy return over a very short period. 2% of RR, bought and sold with a ~60p profit, that's about £20 million and change, 10% return in 2 weeks. Trading over those periods would be odd for an investor of their type? Who knows!
Other than one person's bizarre rants there has been nothing but constructive discussion here recently. I don't understand the odd one out's game. I cant tell if he is a troll or just intensely delusional. All of his random accusations seem to only apply to himself. Discussing the WebEx made us 'childish', 'jokers' and 'not real investors' apparently. Simon was 'revealed' as lying about being an employee of RR which was particularly odd. I don't know how all these conclusions were reached but I think its all just because he either didn't agree with the discussion or didn't understand it. For an LSE board its still remarkably 'on topic' however. Back on the topic at hand, the blackrock movements are very odd but do not seem to have affected the shareprice. who knows what was going on behind the scenes there, I feel that if they knew something the rest of the market didn't the news would have spread to other institutions by now and seen a wave of selling. once employees of one of these investors know a nugget of bad news they invariably spread it to their mates via back channels and the next day the whole city knows. unless we see other major investors following suit I wouldn't worry.
Interesting thread there to read through. my main takeaway is that I don't think anyone understands exactly what is going on income wise! which is exactly the problem RR needs to address to get a better reaction in the market so I am glad they are aware of that and have stated that they need to improve. We shall see what comes of that in the next few months.
The current average target from 30 odd brokers is 629, with the majority rating it as a hold with a few more saying sell than buy. I think this is pretty accurate and in line with my thinking roughly. I am not buying more at 600 and I am holding what I have. 450 is an outlier that might be true in the near future (assuming there is a pretty devastating update in the new year which I think is very unlikely) but its crap on any longish timescale.