Member Info for JSB1989

Current P.E -

With the aggressive buybacks, we have roughly the same number of shares pre the Go Compare and Dennis acquisition.

Here are the numbers pre major acquisitions. This is November 2020.

Net debt was £62 million

Revenue at £339 million

Operating profit 50% of today.

Share price around £18.

EPS -74p per share

PE - 24

Today

+£200 million net debt

+ £100 million operating profit per year

+ £400 million revenue per year

Share price under £5

EPS - 134p per share

P.E -

FIL increasing. Mix of shorts doing different things. Management have bought chunks before Xmas but hasn’t helped and neither has the buyback thus far.

Any ideas on what management can do to help promote the value on offer?

The dividend has now been factored in so 500p today is 517p from yesterday. If you bought by close of play yesterday, you have the dividend.

So has my broker and the price has shedded the dividend amount. Clearly a mix up in communication.

I thought it went ex-div tomorrow but hadn’t seen the correction so it’s on Friday. Need to be on the register by close tomorrow.

Could be sub £5 with the dividend taken out. Stupidly cheap. I can’t see the argument of AI destroying Future’s business and even with no growth, this is still a cash machine at a PE of 3.8.

The argument of ‘it’s a value trap or in cyclical decline’ seems to be thrown around when a stock hits multi year lows and it doesn’t demonstrate strong growth. It will however be bought up shortly because it generates huge chunks of FCF every year.

I remember the sentiment in 2021 was very doom and gloom about Imperials Brands and it hit £13. It’s now at £30 and has thrown out dividends at 7-8% in the last four years.

I’d like to see more aggressive buybacks though. Currently less than 30,000 per day.

Same sector with the digital / print business but Future has the diversification compared to Reach as they have Go Compare too which is highly cash generative and standalone is £500 million + asset.

Reach has the structural deficit with pensions for another three years and that’s hanging on the SP. Future lagging as the sector is very much out of favour.

The specialised content from Future is a clear winner for me when compared the two print / digital businesses.

Just seen the AML data ping up on my device. Yet further evidence of the value hidden in plain sight for Puretech and its shareholders. Unfortunately, nothing seems to be moving the dial at the moment.

LYT-200 will move into P2 trials and this will support strong investment from interested parties once it’s spun out from Puretech.

More great data released. Patiently awaiting the trial design and funding of the P3 trial. The funding and potential partners will be the driving catalyst in the short term.

It’s utter madness. The macro feels very unstable currently.

Volume has returned today. Over 1 million traded again so far. Lets see if Tang is on the buy side again.

A buyer will wait for pull backs in the SP and moments of increased volume to capitalise. Tang is just above 4% and we can expect further buying but these investors are clever and won’t smash the ask constantly for days on end.

Q4 looks busy will Gallop results and updates on Celea P3 design and funding options. More holdings RNS possible. BMY due the Adept readout on Cobenfy.

Tang will mop up any shares possible. He wasn’t going to take 3% and stop. Agree with Rockefellow and Golfnut on his strategy here and it will be welcomed by this new board.

The results are phenomenal and there will be a lot of interest from third parties to either take the lead on the P3 or support by investing.

Unfortunately, our market doesn’t appreciate quality biotech assets. There are some unknowns and this may hold back interest and the share price for a short while longer.

Snowking - I don’t expect Puretech to hold 75%. If another biotech takes the lead on the drug, I’d expect Puretech to be diluted under 50%.

The funding may take place with a series of biotech investors similar to Seaport. In the initial funding, Puretech sat at around 60% and after the second round to the mid 30s. With Celea, I’d expect one round of funding as the drug is Phase 3 ready.

Let’s be honest, the market is valuing Celea at 0, so any investment will only increase the value to Puretech. They are sitting in a strong negotiating position with the $300 million in the bank and won’t be bullied around on a poor deal.

Golfnut - we are all as perplexed as you are. As with all investments, you have to weigh up the downside and potential risks. I own other stocks where I can make a case with a number of factors that present downside risk. In Puretech, I struggle to be able to do this. I’ve made up a worst case scenario below which is hypothetical and there is a highly improbable chance of it ever happening:

- Cobenfy withdrawn with safety issues.

- Celea and Gallop fail to attract any external investment.

- Seaport trials do not meet their endpoint.

In this scenario, you’d still have a ton of cash on the balance sheet for Puretech.

The upside model is potential multiples of the current share price. If any one of Gallop, Celea or Seaport were to be acquired or successfully come to market, it would likely multiply the Puretech share price.

If Cobenfy exceeds projections, is successful in further indications, you are looking at $400-500 million in royalties and milestones compared to the $250 million indicated in the presentation.

Plenty of waffle from me above but it highlights how little is priced in currently. Once Celea and Gallop are spun out, we’ll have a more accurate gauge on a fair valuation for the company. Whether that valuation is realised by the market or from PE is another matter.

I’d expect further corporate action from Puretech once they have contributed to funding the new companies such as a share buyback.

Dallo - The new strategy is clear and has been communicated well. The latest presentation is only 20 slides, outlines the catalysts and breaks down the value of Cobenfy and Seaport.

The presentation under BC was 100+ slides of data and the strategy was evidently to wait and see whilst taking a ridiculous salary.

The director buys are a strong statement and I’m expecting some further corporate activity in the next two to three months.

Hopefully these positive changes will attract the vultures who can fight out for the significant value on display.

Great to see the new BOD buying some shares and a decent amount to boot. This outfit is much improved from earlier in the year.

Just need some volume again now. Shorts won’t play round here again.

Millennium closed their short under the threshold as reported by Shorttracker. The 2 disclosed holdings from Friday has clearly changed their minds on the direction of travel. It’s not a share you want to short now with institutions accumulating.

Be careful with the UT trades today as it’s Triple Witching so those trades are massively inflated compared to normal days.

Lovely day for the turnaround. Sentiment changes so fast sometimes and Puretech is capable of running hard.