Member Info for JSB1989

I’m betting on a private equity approach prior to final years in May.

OT but JG - I work in the rail industry and Trainline is used by the majority of passengers I come across on a daily basis. They absolutely love it. GB Rail is only a theoretical risk. They haven’t divulged any plans further than a fancy logo and a colour scheme for trains. The rollout will move slowly and it is more likely that they bring Trainline on board to support ticketing in the UK.

Very strange that Marble Bar dropped the Reach short to replace it with a much larger short on Future. Neither would be short fodder in my opinion but Future even less so. Marble Bar has been spanked in the past. They lost a shed load on Keyword in 2024.

7.1% declared is probably over 10% now when you add up the smaller holdings under 0.5%.

Just look at PayPal in the US. Constantly battered and as unloved a stock you can find. Dropped to $38 last week. Up over 25% on takeover interest.

Sentiment turns quickly and where there is value, the vultures will be circling.

1.1x leverage is no concern for the company and a healthy level of that is very easily serviced with room for further acquisitions if necessary. I’m happy for them to keep using FCF on shareholder returns through a progressive dividend and buybacks especially at this price. I share the frustration on the level of the buyback but they seem set on 25,000 shares or £100,000 per day / £500,000 per week.

I’d love to hear the shorters case because I’m yet to find a reason for such a bear case.

SG - sometimes things look desperate with no hope in sight and all of a sudden, there is an almighty turnaround. Ashtead Technology was victim of an almighty shorting, under 1% in Nov 24 to nearly 9% in Nov 25 taking the share price from 600p to 300p. From the lows they are up nearly 50% in 3 months and shorts now sitting around 4%.

I think the AI fear is virtually priced in and the exit from the FTSE 250 is depressing the share price temporarily but that shouldn’t impact too much on the downside. The upside is far greater.

AML not the best comparison given it lose 100s of millions per year.

I think management are well aware of the issues and disconnect with the share price. Director buys wouldn’t have much effect, at least not in the long term. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some structural changes in the coming months. Analysts have mentioned the need for this to realise fair value. Potentially the larger institutional holders are applying pressure in the background. The most obvious thing to do would be to spin out Go Compare or sell it to private equity. If MONY is trading at 9-12x earnings, so should Go Compare. The remaining publishing / media side is likely to trade closer to 6-8x earnings. Reach is currently at 4x and that’s discounted due to the heavy pension burden and in the next 18 months will likely rerate towards those multiples.

The EBITDA of Go Compare is 55% of Money Supermarket (£80 million compared to £145 million),like for like, Go Compare valuation would be £455 million. If you strip that out, pay down the debt to 0, Future would be valued at £200 million (with no debt) for £150 million of EBITDA per year. A very conservative 3-4x EBITDA values the B2B and B2C business at £450-600 million.

The above scenario would generate significant shareholder value and allow Future to focus on what it truly does best. Acquisitions such as Sheerluxe are the type of transactions Future should focus on moving forward. The market simply doesn’t like the blend of sectors here.

I think that we all share the same frustration here looking at these daily movements. Just got to remind ourselves about how much the company is making every day and there will be a correction.

Fidelity are loading at these prices and the shorts will have to unwind soon as there isn’t much or anything left for them at earnings of 3x or less.

Solid results from MONY. Guidance EBITDA at +2% for FY26. CEO talks about opportunity of AI. Rated at PE of 10. That rating for Go Compare would more than cover the market cap of Future.

Nice to see a couple of blue days albeit still way off and notice how the volume has dried up since Wednesday.

The next catalyst will be the reaction to MONY results and forward guidance on Monday followed by Reach in early March.

I would hardly call this a recovery just yet. Recapture 450p and it’s starting and then needs to move back over 500p.

The sell off really started in Q4 the 650-750p range and then quickly capitulated in the past two weeks. A. base case fair value has to be around that range from here.

I wish I had more powder to pile in at these prices.

Brilliant find. Thank you.

3 further increases on shorts yesterday. I’d understand a pile on with a share such as Evoke who are drowning in debt but one where leverage is just over 1x and cash flow so strong, it makes no sense. I’m looking at it that it will make for an even better squeeze soon.

Agreed. That threshold was crossed on Friday so they were buyers at 420p. Another 5% cheaper today and able to buy 1% for less than £4 million, I think they will continue to increase.

Fidelty are increasing again. Over 13%. At least one institution can see the value here.

MONY report full year results on Monday so that could read across either way for us. In the trading update in December, they guided easing headwinds in trading for FY26 so hopefully that is reiterated next week.

Another short over the threshold now. Marchant added on Friday. The UT brings us under 400p too. Thats now 10 days down in a row.

As highlighted earlier, Future is now in danger of demotion from the 250 in the next reshuffle which could lead to a sell off from the index funds.

Directors did buy a solid chunk at the final year results in early December and they may be negotiating another bolt on acquisition or even received an initial approach from private equity which would prevent them from buying at this time.

ByeHi - I don’t see £6 attracting current shareholders to sell given that was SP 2 months ago and the outlook has remained. The AI fears were already factored in to the discount at £6.

It does however psychologically provide private equity a chance to offer a much lower price that may interest frustrated shareholders. If £6 was the share price, £10-11 would be needed to at least given the board something to think about. At £4, you might get an offer of £7-8 and it provides food for thought and possible pressure from larger holders to escape with a small return or their original investment back. I’m not saying that figure would be accepted for one moment.

£9-10 would represent fair value right now in the current climate and that’s pricing in a discount for AI fears.

SG0912 - everyone is underwater here. I’ve been using this drop to average down so mine starts with a 4 at least. The company is not distressed, it’s increasing dividends and buying growth at a modest price. It’s amongst the cheapest companies in the FTSE 350. This drop has been orchestrated by shorters and I can’t put my finger on exactly why but it’s not based on fundamentals or financials.

Time after time, I’ve seen the pattern of falling share price, eroded bit by bit and then an offer from private equity at a premium of 50-100%. If you average is under £6, you should see a healthy return in this scenario.

Thanks for posting Neon. I hadn’t seen the Sheerluxe webcast and the prospects of launching further than the UK is appetising.

Here is hoping for a better week!