Member Info for JSB1989

They haven’t closed out. Some inaccurate reports and ramping from certain people. If Rye Bay had bought back 3.5% or roughly 12 million shares in the last week you would see the share price significantly higher and this would also require much bigger volumes than we have seen in the last week.

I am expecting a statement in the coming weeks about this SFO investigation. They will have to wait for Lufkin’s trial to conclude with the sentencing on Thursday and then I think the SFO and Petrofac will get this wrapped up.

The market is anticipating a sizeable fine so anything less or nothing will result in a significant rerate. Once the investigation is over Petrofac will also see more contracts with the SFO cloud overhead. They haven’t secured these in Saudi Arabia since this investigation started and the Saudi’s have on the record welcomed Petrofac back when this has concluded.

Edmond Jackson published a good article compared Wood Group and Petrofac. Both are very similar in order book and Petrofac has much lower net debt yet Wood Group sits at £2 billion MC compared to £400 million.

I think this will be resolved shortly with the SFO after the sentencing of Lufkin next week. As has been stated by others this evening, it’s very possible that Petrofac avoid any further action or punishment. The market has already priced in the possibility of a substantial fine and the company has lost out on some contracts due to the SFO investigation. So if the outcome is no further action, we can expect one hell of a rerate and a short squeeze.

Let’s also not forget that the outlook is looking more promising for oil this year at $50-60 per barrel compared to an average of $40 in 2020.

I don’t buy that Rye Bay closed over 3.5%. It would have squeezed the price up considerably. Shorttracker seems the most reliable site for this and it hasn’t shown up.

https://m.uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/pearson-shares-rise-on-gamestop-contagion-2287205

I noticed this too Edwina with both Pearson and Cineworld which is very interesting. I think they will be slowly closing some short positions in here to crystalise some profit from this recent drop anyway. Back to 150p in the coming sessions.

Possible trend emerging that UK investors will start to look at the most shorted stocks on our markets. Obviously we haven’t got the extreme % of short positions in the UK markets like GameStop which was over 100%, however PFC has been slowly squeezed for years and the share price depressed over 90% and sitting at all time lows. Good sign to see Blackrock reducing and expect to see Rye Bay pulling back prior to results at the end of February.
Edmond Jackson draws a good comparison between PFC and WG which have similar order books and PFC with significantly less debt, yet WG has a valuation of x5 that of PFC.
The RNS last week was an excuse for the shorts to squeeze the lemon even harder. There was nothing new in the statement to warrant a 40% drop. The potential of any significant fine is priced in here and has been for sometime. A fine considered to be ‘light’ by the markets or no further action would mark the beginning of a major rerate.

I was a holder in 2019 to February 2020 and I’m shocked to see Goldplat at 7.5p still with the gold price averaging $1900 in the last 3 months and looking very strong for the rest of this year. Surely 15p-20p will be achieved with the sale of Kili and a good few months at these prices!

I am puzzled by this week. I thought the very large trades and huge volumes were certainly the last of the seller on Friday but it is clear that more selling down is happening. Can’t be long now until that dries up, a base is formed and the SP sees uplift into Q1. We are now approaching halfway into the expected timeframe of the clearance date.

I think we will see over £1 before approval and £1.50 if we are given the green light. That would be £325 million valuation. If approved I do see a buyout from one of the big US tech companies in the liquid biopsy space.

We will soon find out Dibs.

Nice buy Chester. Once Jupiter turns off the taps, the free float will gradually get tighter and squeeze the price up. Nobody is in profit here, those who took the placing are even 15% down. 60-70p by the end of January looks reasonable to me.

Maybe buying in following your own research would be a better option in the future. The price action is down to Jupiter selling from over 10% to under 5% and possibly will be out in December. The bottom is either here or close in my opinion. Q1 will be FOMO mode in anticipation of the FDA decision in early Q2 would be my best guess.

It’s actually $1 billion in total. 3 indications @ $347 million each. The vaccine deal with Merck is covered with NDAs so we don’t know when a milestone payment will be due or what will trigger this. It could be next week or next year!

Yes I do, but I’m not posting it as I didn’t inform them that I was recording audio. I used it for the sole purpose to help me with the summary notes.

No need to RNS the content in my conversation with the company.

It’s almost nailed on that we will list on the NASDAQ, now they have brought in Chardan Bank and US lawyers to work on this.

It was great to hear that the Merck Vaccine program is making good progress. I’d love to hear more about this but the 3 indications been worked on and the structure of the deal is loaded with NDAs. When we get news it’s very likely to be a milestone payment in 1 or more of the indications.

We know that news is very close now with 3 very likely updates in Q3/early Q4:

- Full Part A Oncology Data in MRX0518 Trial
- Blautix Readout & Licensing Agreement (if successful)
- NASDAQ Intention to List / Formal Process

Remain patient and don’t worry about the 5-10% fluctuations. My initial target price on post Blautix readout is 150p (pending positive result).

Seres have been valued at 300-400 million and following their successful readout are now at circa 1.5 billion. We are not tracking their movements.

The reason those companies in this space saw an uplift including 4D Pharma are because the successful phase 3 trials are validation that these drugs containing strains of
bacteria work and they work very effectively! Now we have a stacked pipeline over many indications and all the data released thus far has been favourable.

Mixture of buys and sells after hours and late in the day. Some marked sells are buys.

Terrier - I agree with you. Interest is building in 4D, numerous readouts and plenty of corporate activity in the short term.

We saw what happened with SNG last week on positive phase II data. I believe 4D will see a significant re-rate very soon.

This article is worth a read. It highlights the importance and role that bacteria plays in the growth and inhibiting actions in cancerous tumours. Our drug MRx-0518 is pushing this breakthrough alongside Merck’s checkpoint inhibitor Keytruda in Phase I/II trials.

https://www.jta.org/2020/07/27/health/israeli-scientists-identify-new-culprit-behind-cancerous-growths-tumor-specific-bacteria