Member Info for JSB1989

Sotolo - There is no doubt that the SP is been held back by someone selling down or out. There has been a lot of buying in the last two weeks which has mostly been absorbed by some large sell prints. Today there were 3 x 30k sells in quick succession which dropped the price around 1.30pm and then plenty of buying brought it back up. Just a waiting game now for share price to really start moving.

Thank you for the summary on the meeting. I will try to log in again and watch the recording of this.

Got the audio working at 15.55. Doh!

Sound not working so can’t hear the presentation. Would appreciate if anyone can summarise what Phoevos has said additional to the presentation.

5p paid already. Investor presentation today which should bring further interest.

Interesting outlook on both Rhodium and Palladium published today.

https://www.heraeus.com/media/media/hpm/doc_hpm/precious_metal_update/en_6/Appraisal_20210308.pdf

It’s been a barrage of buys today and lots of £10k+ buys too. PIs are loading up before the next uplift. Surely this seller can’t have too much left. I’ve taken another block myself this afternoon.

Sotolo - those figures are purely revenue with a 10% discount to spot price. What I wanted to highlight was how the increase in PGM basket was improving the revenue.

You can look at it that in Q3 they were profitable and PGM revenue has jumped up over $45 million in Q1, most of that will feed into the bottom line.

Thank you. That’s much appreciated. Excellent margins from the chrome side of the business too.

Thank you for highlighting the published prill split Tiger. I will re amend this on my figures.

I haven’t researched the chrome side of the business yet. Do you happen to know the margins on the chrome?

Oufc - I have Iridium at 4,000 ounces per year of the basket.

I’ve run some numbers for Q1 on the PGM side and have taken the average spot price so far in the first 10 weeks to demonstrate the change in revenue from Q3 2020.

Q1 2021
Rhodium = $83.6 million
Platinum = $24.6 million
Palladium = $16 million
Iridium = $3.8 million
Ruthenium = $0.7 million
PGM Basket = $128.7 million
Discount 10% at spot price = $116 million

The numbers in Q3 and Q4 were as follows:

Q4 2020
PGM Basket= $95.4 million
Discount 10% = $85.8 million

Q3 2020

PGM Basket = $79.2 million
Discount 10% = $71.2 million

From end of Q3 to end of Q4 the financials swung $25 million from $21 million net debt to $4 million net cash. My prediction for the end of Q1 is $35 million net cash and this is with the $9.8 million dividend taken into account.

Certainly think in this environment that they will add to the three remaining drills this year. It makes sense to catch up on the missed drills last year.

Hi Sotolo,

Your figures on the rhodium inside of a car are out by some margin. In a standard car catalyst converter there is around 0.45 grams of Rhodium which translates to around $500 at current price. It would be higher in a truck or a lorry. This is still a very significant cost to car manufacturers.

The Rhodium price may well be unsustainable at $30,000 but I don’t see it collapsing much further than $20,000 and there are a number of analysts predicting these levels in their forecasts.

The new Chinese 6 legislation has played a big part in this rally for rhodium and other PGMs as the 6 vehicles contain around 4 grams of PGMs, mostly Palladium and the previous vehicles had 3 grams of PGMs. The supply from SA has not been able to keep up with this demand.

The change over to fully electric vehicles is accelerating but it will take a number of years to phase out catalytic converters. Hybrid vehicle sales are booming as many see them as a stepping stone from fossil fuels to electric and growth global is expected to hit its peak around 2027. This will keep PGMs in high demand for a number of years.

At a stable Rh price of $20,000 per oz Tharisa would still be vastly undervalued. The SP was trading around 120p in August 2019 when Rh was at $5000 per oz. The market is yet to appreciate the recent moves but that has provided us with the opportunity to buy in before the share price rerates which I believe it will.

With regards to Rhodium, the average price in Q1 so far has been $21,800 compared to an average in Q4 of $15,100 so $6,700 more and likely to be higher if prices maintain over $25,000 in March. To put the difference in perspective, the Q1 Rhodium revenue alone (at the av $21800) will generate $25.1 million more than Q4 2020 which was already a record Q for Rhodium. That’s before calculating the increased prices in the rest of the basket in Q1 compared to the previous Q.

The update in April is going to make for very interesting reading.

Been watching THS for a few weeks and finally bought in this week. I’m scratching my head at the share price and thinking ‘what’s the catch?’. The current rhodium revenue alone is astronomical without the rest of the PGM basket or the chrome. I’m guessing that the market sees this as a sort term spike but if it stabilised for a long period of time at $20,000 then the SP should be multiples.

Markets are going to be incredibly turbulent over the coming weeks so I’ve positioned in stocks which are generating significant cash, trading at low PE and are in demand commodities such as oil and metals. UOG fits the bill perfectly.

I wouldn’t read too much into Tullow’s disposal of the Jamaica asset. Tullow had $3 billion debt at the time of the decision (think that is now around $2.4 billion now) and have had to scale back on capex per year from $350 million pre covid to $265 million in 2021. They are now focusing mostly on West Africa and Guyana.

The rising oil prices will see some of the oil majors ramping up their exploration again and looking for farm in opportunities.

Getting closer to receiving the $2.8 million from Hibiscus.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/295336/hibiscus-enters-exclusivity-arrangements-on-marigold-fpso/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Mikey- seller was cleared out yesterday. Likely that frustrated shareholders were leaving after finally seeing profit again. Great day to finish in the low-mid 4s.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/942214/united-oil--gas-says--ash-3-well-at-the-abu-sennan-project-is--the-gift-that-keeps-on-giving--942214.html