Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I'm assuming you're referring to me. 'the other share' is at the beginning of their journey, which will take 2 - 3 years to fully develop to a solid multi billion pound mcap, many holders here, who may not admit it for fear of rampers like you getting on their case, will be out of nova as soon as they get a decent price. After all, we're here to make money and if theres one thing this share has taught me its don't be greedy and take your profit.
Just shows the influence the dispute is having when even best H1 sales aren't enough (granted h2 will be lower). Looks like the market is valuing nova differently to how PIs are. I'm not selling for a loss, avr £4.30 now and willing to wait 6 months for dispute to be settled, but also mindful that £100m revenue will probably not push the SP back to the £9 I paid at its height. Mms have played a blinder, and I'll need the cash sooner than they will.
"If a manufacturer has developed a test with an unforeseen advantage, we reserve the right to review and permit submission for validation if the scientific consensus supports the claim."
I wonder if developing the most accurate real world lateral flow test counts, or that affimers can be tweaked in weeks to test against new variants and its a fully UK owned technology. Or we haven't sued the DHSC yet.
I thought that Bluelight but I believe the contract has a clause excluding interest on payments in dispute from researching, and even if dispute goes against DHSC penalties cannot be applied (was lifted from another contract but as they use fairly standard contracts it will apply here too). Therefore nova will be looking to resolve this asap, whereas before i thought they might be happy to drag it out.
The EUA for orient and innova has been extended until Jan, but specifies not for daily testing, only track n trace. Is this a new term? The guys on nova seem seem to think so but I thought that term existed already.
Nova need to shake this idea they're just a covid play (which they are at present - take any covid related revenue away and they're back to pennies) to get a sensible valuation - look at abcam for example, £3.3bn mcap on £260m revenue and £12.5m profit, because they're diversified and have an attractive pipeline. Resolution of the DHSC dispute is the first step as it will potentially free up millions in cash for acquisitions, and probably double the SP if its all in our favour.
Just looks like its the dispute holding things up, figures look pretty damn good. Would like to see that settled by end of the year or early Q1 22, maybe that will be the focus of the new chap.
I'm most interested to see what nova are doing with all their cash. If they're just sitting on it then maybe they're aiming for a buyout or resolution of the dispute first before looking at further acquisitions (in which case they should say). Hopefully they're in talks with 1 or 2 possible targets. Can't see this ever dipping under £3 again, so only upside from here imo
Looks like all the complainers are wannabe traders and gamblers, not well researched investers. AS has given us the milestones, the LFT is on the market and now he's trying to ramp up production to meet significant demand. I'm here for the long term, the ADC market is going to be massive, affimers have huge potential over antibodies and nanobodies - our closest competition in the form of affibodies is no more advanced, but justifies a £3bn mcap for abcam on little over £10m profit, yet affimers look to be even more versatile - just read up on some of the lab work done on imaging, or pre clinical work delivering drugs to target tumours with the likes of iksuda. Avacta now have their affimer tech in the LFT which happens to be the most accurate in the world as a showcase for it.
We'll no doubt see further licensing deals for affimers which is where the real money will be made (and dismissed as jam RNSs). As the world moves away from using antibodies and nanobodies derived from animals and all the drawbacks with it, they'll be looking at something to replace it with. Yes the mms have had fun taking the **** out of people who have just found out what a stop loss is, or have panic attacks when the SP drops, but with the pipeline avacta has for the next 2-3 years there's no other company I'd feel more comfortable having 90% of my SIPP and ISA in. At these prices I'm adding whatever I can.
Apologies if posted before. List of all testing companies, if anyone feeling particularly bored they could check which ones are using our kits
http://qna.files.parliament.uk/qna-attachments/1347579/original/HL2097%20TABLE.docx
If you look at the accepted tests they're mostly Chinese too. Including that Lepu device which was tested recently and found to be pretty much a fake device, also recalled by the fda. I don't think their testing procedures are any better than ours. Hope they didn't reject surescreen simply because it's British
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/default/files/preparedness_response/docs/covid-19_rat_common-list_en.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwizmqLj_rTyAhVwRUEAHUEnBlAQFnoECAsQAQ&usg=AOvVaw2x0Ehp66OU3dvXmr63GOmj
Certainly not the one developed with avacta
https://www.bkr-online.com/en/
Is the test listed here
https://antigentest.bfarm.de/ords/f?p=110:100:13891600436784:::::
90% sensitivity
https://mologic.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/ML210309-Covid-19-Rapid-Antigen-Test-IFU-GER-V2-20-5-21.pdf
1-2cm up nose, does that still Count as An?
The odx partnered one is rated 92% (Unless ct values differ in which case it might be the same) otherwise its possibly a different test, this one using CARD tech for the strip development with Bill's cash, so less sensitive but each test costs $1 - $2 to make, and they're selling at cost.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352101897_Development_of_nanobody-based_POLArIS_orientation_probes_enabled_multi-colormulti-target_orientation_imaging_in_living_cells
No idea what any of it means, I'm lost after the words 'Development of", but Tokyo university seem to like affimers. I think we'll see a few more papers appear as affimers are experimented with.
Its only a matter of time before a big pharma comes in for the affimer patents. Do they do it before tmac and pay £3bn, or after and pay £30bn
I think GM had hoped to retire with Nova as a billion £ company, unfortunately I think he's realised that could be some time off and the dispute is either unlikely to be resolved any time soon, or with an unfavourable outcome so wants to 'own it' and let the new guy start with a clean slate. Last month was the first time in 12 months we've had no product launches or trading update, so I think GM has realised he's taken Nova as far as he can (which TBF has been absolutely transformational the last 18 months and made a lot of investors very rich). If Nova are to ever become a £bn company over next 5 - 10 years without relying on covid then I think fresh eyes and ideas will help.
Of course, this time frame could be much sooner should an escape variant take hold and the world is back to square one. I imagine less focus will be made on the UK, and US markets will be key over next 12 months. If you said in 5 years time we'll still be making £30-40m EBITA that would be amazing
If trading update was poor, GM would not have announced his retirement now, would have left it a few weeks. Tomorrow now full focus can be given to figures. Not expecting any update to the dispute, probably not until next year, but should get clarity on our LFT demand and our bread n butter PCR kits.
We've had either a trading update, product launch, portfolio update or figures every month for last 12 months, so we're due 'something' tomorrow.
So if criteria officially changed today, ODX claimed other day that the choice of test is imminent, does that mean any test / contract chosen now is likely to be a short term 3-6 month solution, in other words, don't all fall in to a panic if some dodgy Chinese test Is selected for manufacture, our time will come.
Does seem like 2 forces are at work in the dhsc, one wants the status quo and keep the Chinese tests incoming, the other side recognises there are UK developed tests that are far superior but hampered by unsuitable validation processes, and have so far managed to delay the 'sovereign' test being selected until the best one passes. Hopefully avacta, but at this point anything UK produced is an improvement.