RE: Worst case is $601m free cash in Fy 2631 Jul 2025 08:55
Evolution Mining is valued at $14.6 billion for 700,000 ounces, implying a valuation per ounce of $14.6 billion / 700,000 ≈ $20,857. For GGP, with a market cap of £1.71 billion (approximately $2.7 billion using an exchange rate of 1.29 USD/GBP) and a FY26 production midpoint of 285,000 ounces, the valuation per ounce is $2.7 billion / 285,000 ≈ $9,474.
To contextualize, Evolution Mining is a larger company with diversified operations across Australia and Canada, justifying its higher valuation per ounce. Comparing GGP to mid-tier peers:
Alamos Gold, a mid-tier miner, has a market cap of $5.2 billion and produced 474,000 ounces in 2024, resulting in a valuation per ounce of $5.2 billion / 474,000 ≈ $10,970.
GGP's $9,474 per ounce is in line with Alamos Gold, suggesting its current valuation is reasonable for a mid-tier miner.
However, GGP's future potential, particularly with Havieron, could increase its production and valuation. If funds believe in this growth, they might see GGP as undervalued compared to Evolution, especially given the recent share price drop.