Member Info for JP2000

Sequence of events as I see it: Half year results improving situation generating cash. Orion debt rescheduling deal. Going concern status officially changes. Directors can openly promote the company without fear of being sued. Kitumba deal requires regulatory approval before final go ahead � timing is uncertain. Company funds development plans for Kitumba & Central Ops for current calendar year out of free cashflow, $10-20m. If copper heads towards $8000 and Tschudi improves, Central Ops (plan B) is ready baring the final investment c$10m, then the share price is significantly north of here making an interim equity fund raising possible towards the end of this year �30-40m. I�d then raise �100m of equity once the BFS is complete and borrow a further $200m to complete phase one of Kitumba. A 70-80ktpa Cu producer at $8000/t will be quite valuable. WTI is currently highly geared to copper (good) but the existing business model ($125m debt) is volatile and arguably WTI should have gone bust. Equity financing is fine so long as PI�s get a fair share of the cake.

Fundamentally: equity financing is significantly cheaper, reduces gearing and risk resulting in a higher share price. But its unpalatable particularly for small PIs. Using Tschudi as the example, few investors realised the break even point was C1 + debt repayments = $5500-6000/t ?? Mining is cyclical leaving the company vulnerable at the bottom of the cycle so unless management box clever negotiating flexible loan payments incorporating the cycle then $300m of debt for Kitumba on top of the $125m will be incredibly risky.

Has anyone noticed this bullet point under the Tschudi Summary: "There are resources outside the pit and orebody is open at depth" I recall asking Alan Stephens a couple of years ago if there were additional resources and he said no.

If they�re using retained earnings to fund acquisitions or BFS�s or development work then they need to make this abundantly clear they�re doing this at the expense of loan repayments and Orion are happy about this. It could be they announce a new deal to reschedule Orion payments.

You'll have spoken to Kevin Ellis CFO as the HQ is really only used for meetings. If they don't have a date then the announcement is contingent on other issues; a board meeting, audit sign off, or something else like Orion negotiations. Pity you didn't probe a bit further.

Central ops at capacity is worth 2-3p per share, more if they can do a deal to utilise the concentrator. But, they are two years away from that level of production.

Are they producing free cashflow? Yes and it should be a very good year. But they wont start payments in March because they need the cash for the development projects and acquisitions. The lender Orion is absolutely fine with the situation as we're racking up interest. They won't foreclose because they'd take a big hit on Tscudi.

You'll never see Baron's holding as it must be through a nominee otherwise it would be listed on the major shareholder list. Someone sold c30m shares around 3-3.5p. Those trades point to Logiman so their current holding will be 30-50m

Let us into your secret, did KE give you the nod at the 19th hole?

Hi, could anyone give a brief synopsis of the investment case for AMER, what newsflow is expect? (Happy to return the favour re WTI) Not currently in AMER and it feels unloved but sounds like it�s got some decent upside. Thanks JP

Can someone humour me, what's the psychology of delaying a trade when the MM obviously knows its happened and adjusts the prices immediately? I noticed the trades around 9am were all buys, then the price starts dropping which could be indicative of delayed sells though have yet to see any significant 9.00am-9.10am sells coming through.

Surprised you're not holding within an ISA then both capital gains and dividends would be tax free, in some respects better than pensions/SIPPs as the income is tax free though you don't get tax relief on contributions. Re valuations: there are 1,060,803,192 shares in issue so $100m earnings = 9.4c/share = 6.71p/share