Member Info for JP2000

New out today

http://www.amerisurresources.com/images/rns-pdfs/Investor-Presentation-Feb-2019.pdf

So what does the demand side look like; China, US, EU? the answer's not great until the trade deals get rebalanced

Someone's been manipulating SP for the last month

Are you suggesting they pay tax on reserves? I've never heard of this, normally you pay royalties on production and corporation tax on profits. Columbia only has c5years of proven reserves which is a major problem for government finances so why put barriers on exploration & development.

Just nonsense to suggest another stock with a completely different set of factors will have an identical price path. You might as well start gazing at cloud formations, reading tea leaves or ask a witch doctor.

Not saying AMER isn't a good story with lots of upside.

I queried the discrepancy on the Indico net pay column height (209ft AMER v 241ft ONGC) and was told this was due to cut off criteria ie AMER take a more prudent view.

But it does make you wonder whether 1P & 2P resources will also differ.

Basically it boils down to sentiment. CPO-5 was worth nothing 6 weeks ago, now take your pick, 10-60p per share. The only surprise is how slowly the market reacts.

AMER said 209ft net
Indian media reporting 241ft net.

“241” is coincidental a reported well head pressure.

Just saying they can’t both be right.

Royalties are effectively a tax & you wouldn’t pay a tax on royalties. What royalties do is reduce profits attributable to corporation tax i.e. they reduce CT, royalties are the most transparent form of taxation.

So how does someone get 8m for 11.50p?

Not only that, AMER have retweeted Malcysblog

https://twitter.com/AmerisurResourc

Good development for WtI, though doubt Orion are not happy as it’s 600k less they’ll receive from administration. BA has NPV of $75m but is pretty much worthless in a fire sale so Orion might as well let WTI develop it along with Central Ops.

The role of the Administrator is to maximise the return to the creditors hence they sell or keep the mine running so long as its cash generative. As per motives: 1) Directors duty of care and legal obligation once it became clear Orion had withdrawn support. 2) Orion controlled the cashflow but now the Administrator legally controls it. They cant splash the cash but will make decisions. The issue is whether WTI has enough working capital because Orion won't allow further drawdowns. 3) Designed to force Orion to negotiate. 4) It gives some breathing space to fix the problems and that's also Orion's priority. Don't forget the other issue is metal recovery i.e. 80% v85% (business case) and they had a consultant in place aerating the leach pads, results were expect end of June at the earliest. Before Administration I asked why Tschudi wasn't offered to Orion for a dollar to avoid un-necessary Administration fees? It was offered but unclear whether Orion rejected the idea or just didn't respond because there were too many unknowns.

Whilst parties do their own due diligence, the Directors would get sued if that were the case.

The main shareholders didnt sell and Directors didnt suspend the shares or call in administrators before this RNS so there was/is a deal to be done. This RNS forces Orion to write down all or part of the loan.

Realistically did Tschudi have any value before this announcement? CO & BA have an NPV of c$95m but will fetch <$1m from a liquidation.

Ingress issues seem counterintuitive for Namibia but the water table is dependent on geology not weather. That said I can't defend the BFS which should have picked up the problem.

I have asked where the debt liabilities lie. Whilst primarilly with the Nambian holding company they flow upwards to the PLC which holds the ultimate liability. So there may not be a charge over the other assets but that doesnt matter. So you then ask why isnt the PLC in administration today? Because that wont maximise Orions return.

Orion absolutely can call in the loan but thats not the smartest thing to do. My preferred outcome is quite different,WTI sell off Tschudi for �1 but WTI continues to run in return for a management fee. The debt & cashflows go to Orion meanwhile WTI's balance sheet is transformed and it can develop the remaining assets. Berg Aukas & Central Ops are currently worth $1m despite an NPV of 90m so Orion can make more money letting WTI develop the assets than in a fire sale.

Working together is the only way Orion will get a decent proportion of their loan back. Here's an idea, why don't they sue Rod Webster for being such a twat.