Member Info for Joshholdforgold

It is a rumour based on a series of tweets by french doctors.
The thread can be found on Myles McNaltys Twitter.
My gut feeling was that it is likely to be true.

Ncyt has Mcap of £375m. Where are they going to find the £1-2bn for synairgen!

Key dates for the diary and best estimates of next stage updates:

1. EMA PRIME report - 16th October - We have got to be in there!
2. US Election - 2nd Nov - If there were to be a big US deal wrapped up this side of Xmas I believe it will come before the election as the Big Pharma will want to grab some desperation funds. Admittedly this is somewhat hopeful.
3. Peer Review - Est. 2-4 weeks. - RM (on the Timbo ADFVN phone call which I assume to be genuine) states that the peer review will be much sooner than the usual 6-12 months after headline data. Therefore soon! Very soon.
4. UK, US and Rest of World approvals, phase 3 trial start (or not required) update, home trial recruitment, MAP sales/orders, manufacturing update all of which I hope to see before the end of November.

Additions or corrections gratefully received.

GLA

Chris- I like the new acronym! I think I will add it to my repertoire.

Nolupus - I think we can make a fairly educated guess at the points you mention:

Mine would go as follows:

Home trial recruitment - minimal progress. The increase in cases in the last few days may give an opportunity to resume recruitment, however, RM stated yesterday that support was needed from governments to fill the trial.

Peer Review - In the transcript yesterday from Timbo003s chat with RM, its claimed RM says peer reviews normally take 6-12 months but this will be much quicker. So at a guess, 3 months from headline data. Which means within the next 3 weeks.

Partnership negotiations - I doubt these will be concluded before the release of:
1. Peer review (although possibly not required).
2. EMA PRIME report 16th Oct
3. The patent approval applied for 9th Sept. (Estimated at 4-8 weeks)

CPMOD - Apologies if I am being thick: when I download the spreadsheet it does not specify which trades are buys or sells? How do you work that out?

Thanks in advance.

Yesterday someone posted that there were 200k more buys than sells over the day. Please could that person (or someone else) tell me where they found this information?

Sparklehorses - You win the BB post of the day.

scinv - You have the honor of being the first person I have ever filtered.

Roger -

I take your point. If MAP is the only route to market then there is no chance we will get anywhere near 200,000 doses.

I optimistically/naively believe that RM will have quantified that number based on all routes to market and therefore must see another route.

Roger - 200,000 treatments per month comes from the slides on the RM interview by Sachs yesterday.

Technically it said 100,000s treatments per month.

Scinv - the £1500 per treatment comes from Timbos ADVFN post (well worth a read) as well as other comparable and the OPs link to NHS purchasing of synairgen.

I am in exactly the same boat. I got in at 58p, £1.85 and again at £2.40.
At £2.60 I was sat on a very large profit however I have now averaged up to £1.25.
Hold for gold. I really hope for the big bits of news soon. This continuous downward trickle is somewhat stressful!

If we assume from the NHS link £1500 per 14 day treatment (The US will undoubtedly charge more) and 200,000 treatments pcm for 12 months:

1500 x 12 x 200,000 = £3.6bn per year.

This article claims that the median profit margin for pharmaceutical drug production is 76%.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762308

Now valuing the product is harder. This is where I begin to become creative.
Should it’s licence be for use only in application to corona viruses, perhaps we should look at the profit over next 5 years.

5x0.76x3.6bn = £13.68bn profit

In a licensing deal what % might synairgen get? 25%?

If so then 25% x 13.68bn = £3.42bn

This is equivalent to £22.80 a share.

Please feel free to suggest any issues or corrections to my logic.

GLA -

I would have expected to see an RNS saying that Synairgen has applied for emergency approval much in the same way that we saw one for the patent application.
Have I missed something, or do we think that an application has been made?
Or is the process less formal? Is it more of an ongoing discussion than a formal application.

Redditch- excuse my ignorance are interferons a sub class of antibody?

Good find. Commercially I hope this does protect against such imitations. Worth noting that imitation is a complement to it success.
At least we are 6+ months ahead and as I understand it, the formula which is inhaled is as vital to its output as the interferons themselves. So I don't think there is too much cause for concern.

Meelie - he makes me think of buzz lightyear.

Did anyone else notice the twinkle in RM eye, and effort to keep a straight face when asked about next steps.... very telling imho.

Robert - I also take this as very significant. Does that mean that the efficacy of sng001 was not significant enough to warrant its share of the COPD market? Or is it simply that Covid is so big, it was more important to hammer that point home?

I believe it will not be long until we see the route to market. At which point it will be a lot easier to quantify where it will end up share price wise.

Whether phase 3 trials are required will imho determine whether we are looking at the £5.00-£7.00 ish price point vs £10-20 mark this autumn.

If, and it is a massive if, emergency approval was granted to enable a large JV partner or purchaser of the licence to supply the drug to the market almost immediately, I think the share price could do incredible things.

If further trials are required the price will be somewhat contained by fear of competition of other products, Covid getting better or some issue coming up from further trials.