Member Info for JordiMendes

Outlook and guidance

In FY25, the benefits of our new commercial model will become increasingly apparent. As such, we continue to expect

FY25 gross margin improvement of at least 300 bps to more than 46%, and adjusted EBITDA growth of at least 60%

to £130m to £150m, post TSTM JV impact9

. We expect FY25 free cash flow to be broadly neutral, with capex of

c.£130m10 and cash interest of c.£35m. We will continue to focus on creating a solid and profitable base upon which

we will drive sustainably profitable revenue growth. For FY25, we expect revenue growth towards the bottom end of

consensus range. FY25 GMV growth expected to be 1-2ppts better than revenue growth as a result of our FF models

scaling.

We have made substantial progress on our operational cost structure and as such we feel confident that for FY26 we

will generate meaningful free cash flow.

Our core focus remains sustainable, profitable growth. In the mid-term we continue to expect to generate adjusted

EBITDA sustainably ahead of capex, interest, tax and leases, with revenue growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of

c.8%. Our new commercial model can drive materially higher gross margin towards c.50% through higher full-price

sales mix and flexible stock models, which also benefit our inventory days. Our focus on efficient capital allocation will

bring our capex down to 3% to 4% of sales, over time, we anticipate that our improving profitability and cash flow will

also reduce our net debt and interest levels

I will definitely study the numbers hard.

"The group continues to expect a 13 per cent decline in total sales for the first half, but for adjusted earnings before nasties to come in ahead of market expectations of £34million."

They've already given more than a taster of what's to come. If we have any excuses, then I probably will pull the plug.

Probably will be something like that or less. But this needs to start moving.

£10 close tomorrow?

Mid 300's no good for me Roberto. Need 700p ish to just break even haha.

Doesn't look great for tomorrow haha

"You could have mentioned you lifted this from motley fool."

Yes, this is from a fool article. Tbf, article was a reasonable one for once.

https://www.fool.co.uk/2025/03/26/despite-the-takeover-rumours-i-dont-want-anything-to-do-with-this-ftse-250-stock/

"it’s still a long way from being profitable at a post-tax level"

^

I guess that's the sticking point here

During the 52 weeks ended 1 September 2024 (FY24), ASOS reported a loss after tax of £338.7m. Despite this, it has a current (26 March) market cap of £365m.

Yet the company’s most recent trading update was positive. For the first half of FY25, it’s expecting a “significant improvement” in profitability. It’s forecasting adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) of around £34m.

But ASOS has a lot of interest, depreciation, amortisation and impairment charges. In FY24, these totalled £340m. So even if the group has a positive EBITDA, it’s still a long way from being profitable at a post-tax level. And these costs are important. Depreciation and amortisation are non-cash items but the assets to which they relate are going to have to be replaced at some point in the future.

Https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2025/04/interview-asos-brand-portfolio/

What is everyone expecting? The update showed results likely to be good.........though maybe some unknowns Asos are going to spring upon us?

Could indeed still stay around these levels but I would be suprised Simon.

High risk? You obviously don't trade in high risk shares Simon which is probably a good thing. Risk subsided immensely when the credit insurers reinstated cover and Asos have already said the turnaround is starting to bear fruit.

I'm not deluded to think everything is rosy, competition is high but Asos will be in the mix. The high prices it got to in the past were ridiculous but it's current market cap is also ridiculous. We'll all have to comb over the numbers in detail when they report and see where this goes.

A lot of back and forth on here 🤣

"sales and profit for the full year are expected to be significantly ahead of market expectations" can only be a good thing.

195k is a large investment. Lets hope Petrofac pull through.

Fingers crossed for you

As someone said, should probably be 6 quid now. But don't expect this to do too much until after results. Wouldn't be suprised if this got held down, as it's been manipulated. I say manipulated, heavily shorted.

Probably. If it does, I might put in a couple of hundred quid as a punt. Have done the same with Solgold.

Indeed.

Unlikely there will be a takeover and certainly not at 4 quid a share. Some of the drivel posted on here is insane.

40% premium to the current share price?!?!?!

The writing is on the wall imo. Too risky.