RE: Outlook for Gold...........3 Nov 2021 18:36
Speedy/Monty
I find the current situation re QE/Inflation/supply and demand /employment very difficult to read in terms of where we are heading .Years ago-(approx 50yrs ago) one half of a couple could go to work and 3x their salary could be borrowed for a mortgage which was enough to buy a place to live .interest rates varied but were never this low .Over the years it has got tougher .Both halves of a relationship have to work,mortgages could be extended to 40yrs, interest rates went lower and lower ,bank of mum and dad became recommended and bank of grandparents as well,-indeed anything to enable the price of houses to rise -(to keep the bubble going )-and certainly in my early years credit was a "dirty word " if you didnt have the cash you didnt have it -apart from the mortgage and may be hp for a car .If business's borrowed it was to make a product ,sell it and with the profits pay off the loan.Tragically now, much more credit is being used for basics -rent/food/clothes and cant be paid back ,I have patients who this winter will be making choices about whether to eat or heat each day -I know there has been a lot of QE but has it actually gone into the economy and created liquidity -Im not sure how much has ,and even if it has I know a lot of people who are frightened to spend more than they have to and if they could have afforded luxuries, are not now -and I dont mean luxuries as well off people understand them to be .A lot of countries have a vast number of job vacancies they cant fill -whether it be for butchers/fruit and veg pickers/hgv drivers etc and I am really not sure that the supply and demand issues are going to be resolved as quickly as some think .Inflation is running at 4% officially ,I suspect in reality it is much higher -We have seen more recently the chinese property giants creaking under the strain and if they implode the effect will be felt around the world .The effects of climate change will continue to affect the world -floods/bush fires etc-and create black swan events .If interest rates do rise and with inflation where it is ,logic dictates that they should I,m not sure whether the above will lead to recession or stagflation -I havent yet mentioned covid /flu and the horrendous waiting lists in the nhs for physical and mental health problems-
Having said all that I think whatever happens gold will do well over the next few years for those that can afford to worry about it ATB Jonno