A balanced comment:11 Jan 2018 15:04
Why Tesco results were hit and miss
By David Brenchley | Wed, 4th October 2017 - 13:00
Share this
Why Tesco results were hit and miss
Tesco's (TSCO) recovery mission under Dave Lewis gained traction Wednesday after a decent set of half-year results, which included a resumption of dividend payments. Margins have improved and the pension deficit � a key issue for investors � has also been reduced substantially.
Discounters like Lidl and Aldi have caused massive problems for Tesco and the rest of the Big Four grocers in recent years. It's partly why Tesco shares are worth two-thirds less now than they were a decade ago.
But we reported six months ago that last year Tesco, the UK's biggest supermarket, saw full-year UK sales grow for the first time since 2009/10. While that was clearly a boon for Lewis and co, profits were still down 40% and fines still being levied by the Serious Fraud Office.
Fast forward six months and things look brighter. Tesco's first-half of the 2017/18 financial year beat analyst forecasts, with many brokers expecting to upgrade forecasts over the next few days.
Group operating profit in the first half came in at �759 million. Although that was helped out by property gains of �33 million, it still smashed consensus estimates for �703 million.
The dividend was reinstated � "an important symbolic milestone," according to broker Bernstein's Bruno Monteyne. An interim dividend of 1p per share, the first payout to shareholders since 2015, "reflects improved performance and board confidence", says Lewis. Analysts expect 3-4p per share for the full-year.
The operating margin took a big step toward Tesco's ambition of 3.5-4% by 2019/20, up 50 basis points year-on-year to 2.68%. Meanwhile, net debt fell more than expected to �3.3 billion, and increasing annual contributions of �15 million from next April will start eating into Tesco's hefty pension deficit.
However, there were some areas of concern responsible for unwinding early share price gains, among them UK like-for-like sales growth of 2.1% for the second quarter, way below consensus estimates for 2.5%. That's partly because Tesco passed on less of any increase in food costs to shoppers than rivals.
chart1
Still, Tesco remains firmly on track to deliver medium-term ambitions of reducing costs by �1.5 billion, generating �9 billion of retail cash from operations by 2019/20 as well as that margin improvement, says Lewis. "In addition� we can continue to strengthen the balance sheet, return to investment grade credit metrics and generate an increasing level; of free cash flow."
Tesco shares have had a strong run into these results, up 13% since July. They've outperformed listed rivals Sainsbury's (SBRY) and Morrisons (MRW), both in negative territory, and the wider market, which is up less than 2%.
After initially opening up a further 2% hi